In Nature, researchers warn of a series of "abrupt" changes affecting Antarctica, the consequences of which could potentially be catastrophic for the entire world. Another study published at the same time highlights the impact of tourism and scientific expeditions on this continent, which has been losing 135 billion tons of snow and ice per year since 2002.

"Abrupt" changes are shaking Antarctica, particularly affected by tourism
ENVIRONMENT/FRANCE 24

Retreating sea ice, slowing ocean currents, melting ice caps, and threats to certain species such as emperor penguins... Antarctica appears to be undergoing a series of "abrupt" changes that are mutually reinforcing, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the entire world, researchers warn in a study published Wednesday, August 20, in the journal Nature.

The scientists, mostly based in Australia, highlight "emerging evidence of rapid changes" in the Antarctic environment.

"Antarctica is showing worrying signs of change in terms of its ice, ocean, and ecosystems. Some of these abrupt changes will be difficult to stop and will have effects for generations to come," summarises Nerilie Abram, a researcher at the Australian National University and lead author of the study.

"Interconnected" Changes 

Scientists have been warning for years about the risks posed by human-induced climate change to Antarctica and the potentially catastrophic consequences for the future, such as rising sea levels caused by melting ice. But the study also shows how these changes are "interconnected" with each other and can, in turn, exacerbate climate change, emphasises Nerilie Abram.

The retreat of sea ice, for example, reduces its ability to reflect solar energy (the albedo effect), thus exacerbating global warming. The British Polar Research Institute (BAS) also showed, in a study published in June, that emperor penguin colonies are declining faster than expected due to the retreat of this ice sheet.

The slowing of the Antarctic Ocean Current and the melting of the ice sheets also reinforce each other, a vicious circle that scientists call a feedback loop. These phenomena, in turn, encourage global warming or the rise of ocean levels in the long term.

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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already been identified by scientists as being at risk of irreversible shift due to rising temperatures. Unlike sea ice, its melting raises ocean levels, a phenomenon likely to last for centuries and will continue even if the climate stabilises.

This area of ​​Antarctica contains enough frozen water to raise the level of the planet's oceans by about six meters. Half of this mass, equivalent to about three meters, is at risk of irreversible collapse in the near future.

In conclusion, the authors believe that "the only certain way to reduce the risk of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment is to make rapid and deep reductions in CO2 emissions during this decade" and to limit warming to as close as possible to 1.5°C, the most ambitious limit of the Paris Agreement.

Tourism and scientific expeditions singled out

Furthermore, another study published Wednesday, this time in Nature Sustainability, reveals that Antarctica is also increasingly affected by the effects of tourism and scientific research.

In areas of human activity, the concentration of fine particles containing heavy metals is ten times higher than it was 40 years ago, the study warns.

Over the past two decades, the number of tourists in the region has increased from 20,000 to around 120,000, according to the International Association of Antarctic Tour Operators.

"The increase in human presence in Antarctica raises concerns about pollutants from vehicle combustion, including particles containing chromium, nickel, copper, zinc, and lead," the study states.

Ships transporting tourists use fossil fuels, which are the source of fine particles. These are responsible for accelerating snow melt, says Raul Cordero, a scientist at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands and co-author of the study.

"Snow is melting faster in Antarctica due to the presence of polluting particles in areas frequented by tourists," he explained in a telephone interview with AFP from Santiago. "A single tourist can accelerate the melting of about 100 tons of snow," he asserts.

A team of researchers from countries including Chile, Germany, and the Netherlands traveled approximately 2,000 kilometres in Antarctica over four years to measure the presence of this contamination.

Heavy metals have also increased due to scientific expeditions, whose extended stays can have an impact up to ten times greater than that of a tourist, the expert emphasises.

The study acknowledges "progress" in the protection of Antarctica, such as the ban on heavy fuel oil, a petroleum derivative, and the use of ships that combine electricity and fossil fuels.

However, "to reduce the footprint of energy-intensive human activities in Antarctica, it will be necessary to accelerate the energy transition and limit the use of fossil fuels, particularly near sensitive areas," the study states.

Antarctica is rapidly losing mass due to global warming. According to NASA, the white continent has been losing 135 billion tons of snow and ice per year since 2002.

With AFP

https://www.france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20250820-antarctique-des-changements-abrupts-en-cours-alertent-des-chercheurs

SEE: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09349-5

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