Despite the decades both major parties have spent ingratiating themselves with the leaders of the United States, Australia is unlikely to receive any favours from the Trump administration.

For once the clichés about turning points and game changers seem appropriate, even understated. Just when you might have been forgiven for thinking the international situation couldn’t get much worse, even in the privileged heartlands of liberal democracy we are about to endure another four years of Donald Trump.

To be fair, it’s not impossible that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza might actually be ended, and however that happens it has to be a good thing. True, the Ukrainians will likely be forced to give up a sizable chunk of their country to Donald’s pal Putin, but if the death and destruction stops that would be something.

Speaking of war criminals and corrupt despots, Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be flirting with the idea of a ceasefire in Gaza. If nothing else, it may provide an opportunity to retrieve some of the thousands of uncounted corpses from under the mountains of rubble. No doubt Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus will use Australia’s immense soft power to persuade the Israelis to stop committing genocide when he visits.

Australia’s political leaders really like to think that they have unparalleled opportunities to influence American foreign policy because of their access through regular get-togethers like the AUSMIN meetings and the Australian American Leadership Dialogue. Whatever the merits of such claims the price in blood and treasure has been immense: utterly needless and ineffective participation in wars in Asia and, even more improbably, the Middle East.

Former prime ministers have been queuing up to highlight the folly of such behaviour, especially when it comes with a $368 billion price tag, as the stupendously ill-conceived and unlikely AUKUS submarine project does. Even Malcolm Fraser eventually saw the dangers of an uncritical and subservient alliance with the US, but only long after he was out of office and in a position to do something about it, of course.

With the possible exception of Mark Latham, who famously and not inaccurately described Australia’s more enthusiastic alliance supporters as a ‘conga line of suck holes’, deviations from the mantra of all the way with the USA have been confined to retired members of the ruling class.

The great benefit of have a bipartisan position on the alliance, despite its notoriously flimsy and ambiguous foundations, is that it has become an incontrovertible belief that requires no thought, much less public debate. The only danger of being wedged by political opponents is by not appearing sufficiently enthusiastic, no matter what the cost.

This politically convenient arrangement is about to be subjected to a searching stress test. While it is unlikely to overturn the alliance as the centerpiece of Australia’s ‘strategic posture’, explaining away some of the likely consequences of a Trump administration may take some doing, even in a country in which foreign affairs are usually not politically consequential.

It’s entirely possible that our great and powerful friend may cease to be a democracy, in anything but name, at least. Some of the norms, institutions and celebrated guard rails that supposedly protect democratic practices are being systematically undermined by Trump’s lackeys, including those he appointed to the Supreme Court. Given that the rule of law may also be compromised by the forced expulsion of illegal migrants, for example, things could become very unpleasant.

Indeed, the possibility of widespread social unrest, possibly involving defenders of America’s democratic principles, may be all too real; an especially alarming prospect given the high levels of gun ownership (and violence) in the US. In such circumstances and with public opinion possibly turning against Trump as he presides over escalating economic and political crises who would bet against the next midterm elections being ‘postponed’?

And that’s just our ally’s possible domestic problems. No one knows, including Trump, no doubt, what foreign policy will look like. One thing is certain though: it will be transactional, based on Trump’s vision of America’s national interest, and absolutely unsentimental. What Penny Wong describes as ‘100 years of mateship’, ‘shared values’ and the ‘dynamism and fortitude’ of the alliance is likely to be revealed as the wishful thinking it has always been.

Indeed, it’s difficult to know which is worse: that Wong genuinely believes this or is just going through the rhetorical motions because that’s what foreign ministers in this country have always done. We know that one of her predecessors wasn’t impressed with the president-elect, but only said so after he was out of office, of course. Kevin Rudd’scharacterisation of Trump as ‘the most destructive president in history’ may well be vindicated though.

Despite this, Wong and ambassador Rudd will attend Trump’s inauguration and bend the knee as Australia’s representatives always have done, no matter who is in the White House or what sort of war they start or support. We can even work with a convicted felon and a fascist, it seems. That’s what friends are for, after all...

https://johnmenadue.com/with-friends-like-these/

GUSNOTE: TRUMP MIGHT BE FAR LESS FASCIST THAN JOE BIDEN....

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HENCE ITS POPULARITY IN THE ABRAHAMIC TRADITIONS…

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