This means war with NATO: Are US Tomahawk missiles coming to Ukraine?
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly must know its call to supply Kiev with medium-range missiles would provoke a direct war with Russia
By Ilya Kramnik

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s resolution on Wednesday calling for Ukraine to be supplied with medium-range missiles — defined by the now-defunct INF Treaty as those with ranges between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers — is a significant development, though not a final decision by the bloc or any national government.

If such a decision is made, the options for providing these missiles to Ukraine remain limited. The only readily available medium-range missile system in the West is the US-made Tomahawk, a weapon that has already been used in various global conflicts. 

Currently, the only ground-based launcher systems capable of firing these missiles are the Mk 70 and the MRC Typhon, both based on the Mk 41 shipborne launching system, with only minor operational differences between them.

But will these systems be transferred to Ukraine? The likely goal of America’s Biden administration needs careful consideration. The aim cannot be to decisively end the war in Ukraine, as the existing stock of Tomahawks is insufficient to achieve that objective.

Even with a few dozen Tomahawks potentially being transferred to Kiev, such an action would lead to a significant escalation, likely provoking a strong response from Russia — possibly bringing the US and NATO into direct confrontation with Moscow, especially given the inevitable involvement of US military personnel in deploying these weapons.

Some experts speculate that this move is part of a larger strategy by the Biden administration to “complicate matters as much as possible” in an effort to make any future peace talks — particularly those under a potential Trump administration — more difficult to pursue.

As an alternative, Washington could consider providing JASSM-ER air-launched missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 kilometers and can be deployed from F-16 fighter jets. However, this too would do little to shift the balance of the conflict. The number of available JASSM-ERs would be far too small to lead to a Ukrainian victory, and their use would again risk escalating the conflict, with unpredictable consequences. Moreover, such a transfer would be impossible without continued US technical support.

Do NATO’s leaders understand the risks of such actions? Surely they must. So why push for such a resolution? The NATO Parliamentary Assembly, though influential, is one of the least powerful branches of the alliance. Nonetheless, its actions appear to follow the larger direction set by NATO’s leadership, often without the full weight of strategic consequences being considered.

https://www.rt.com/russia/608312-are-tomahawks-coming-to-ukraine/

READ FROM TOP.

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

FROM LARRY JOHNSON

Russia’s Deputy Ambassador at the United Nations, Dmitri Polianski, delivered another stark warning to the West today in the aftermath of the latest barrage of US ATACMs launched by Ukraine into the Kursk Oblast (i.e., Russian territory):

The first deputy permanent representative of Russia to the UN said, noting that for every round of escalation from the West, Russia will give a decisive and mirror response:

“We consider ourselves to have the right to use our weapons against military targets of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our targets.

We warned you about this, however, you made your choice.”

President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have delivered the same basic message over the course of the last six days, and the West appears to believe that they are bluffing. While I do not pretend to be a Russia expert based on years of scholarship, my limited but personal exposure to Russian officials — e.g., Ambassador Polianski escorted me when I testified before the UN Security Council in the spring and we had a pleasant conversation prior to the session — tells me these men do not make idle conversation nor do they make off-the-cuff remarks. They mean every damn word they speak.

Last night east coast USA time, Russia issued the NOTAM (see image at the top of this post) covering the area in Russia where the Oreshnik was launched last Thursday. This indicates Russia is preparing something similar. NOTAM is the acronym for Notice to Air Missions and is a warning to commercial and military aircraft to avoid a particular area of space.

It states the abnormal status of a component of the National Airspace System (NAS) – not the normal status.

• NOTAMs indicate the real-time and abnormal status of the NAS impacting every user.
• NOTAMs concern the establishment, condition, or change of any facility, service, procedure or hazard in the NAS.
• NOTAMs have a unique language using special contractions to make communication more efficient.

Some time between now (Wednesday night on the east coast of the USA) and Saturday, the 30th, Russia is going to strike one or more military targets with the Oreshnik missile, or something comparable, that will be more dramatic and damaging than its attack last Thursday in Dnipropetrovsk.

I suspect Western officials are still in the denial stage and probably dismiss this warning as vodka-laced puffery on the part of Russian leaders. Boy, are they mistaken. Whatever target or targets Russia decides to hit, the West’s initial reaction will be a mixture of shock and consternation. Some will even find it unimaginable that Russia did what it is planning to do.

Russia has made it very clear, “that for every round of escalation from the West, Russia will give a decisive and mirror response.” Because the latest ATACMs were launched at a Russian airfield in Kursk by Ukraine, I anticipate that Russia will destroy an airfield in Ukraine. And I am not talking about putting a few holes in the tarmac and runways — Russia is going to obliterate one of Ukraine’s airfields.

This will create a new decision point for the West. Continue the FAFO policy and continue attacking Russian territory or call a halt to the madness. 

I had a chat yesterday (Tuesday) with Mike Farris, who does the podcast, Coffee and a Mike. I am also posting a livestream I did today with the good folks at DD Geopolitics.

https://sonar21.com/us-uk-and-france-double-down-on-fafo-russia-preps-response/

READ FROM TOP.

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.