cop29...

The climate crisis is much more severe than most people and politicians realise. Most information, education and media reporting around climate change (global heating) focuses on reducing our annual emissions to a target based on a ‘trajectory of progressive reduction’, and eventually ‘net’ zero annual emissions by 2050 or some other date.

But this ignores the reality that it is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and their contribution to radiative forcing in real time that actually drive global heating.

We are sending the wrong message by focusing on annual carbon emissions based on 100-year global warming potential

By Alan Pears

Also, it’s not just CO2 that matters. The IPCC found that real time heating in the decade from 2010 to 2019 from relatively short-lived but very climate-active methane contributed more than half as much heating as CO2, even though its atmospheric concentration was much lower. But CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a very long time: much of it will still be in the atmosphere for more than 100 years, as shown below.

This article highlights some key insights that should underpin climate policy.

Every tonne of emissions adds to global heating and the longer it is in the atmosphere the bigger its cumulative impact

When we refer to our annual emissions in reports on climate change, it sends an unstated message that this is the most important indicator of our performance – and if annual emissions are declining towards ‘net’ zero by 2050, that is sufficient action. It’s not. As I pointed out to some young students recently, much of the emissions we release today will still be heating the planet when they are grown up and have kids of their own.

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A disadvantage of the way the data are presented in the IPCC graph is that the horizontal axis shows the cumulative emissions, rather than the time period when the emissions occurred. This means it is not easily linked to most of the graphs of emissions over time. Figure 2 shows my analysis from public data of the correlation between temperature change and cumulative emissions over time since 1900. It also shows how global heating correlates much better with cumulative emissions than with annual emissions.

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This method of presenting emission data may be more effective in emphasising the need for urgent and substantial reductions in emissions if we are to slow, then stabilise global temperature increase.

Many governments and industries are promoting future technology developments such as nuclear power, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage that will take decades to implement as solutions. These approaches will allow cumulative emissions to continue to grow, driving higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. We need to focus attention on short-term action. Today’s emissions will drive heating for many years.

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times a-coming....

The following is a transcript of remarks delivered by UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell to world leaders at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) on 12 November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Translations available for this speech: Ar | Esp | Fra | Por | Ru

Excellencies.

We used to talk about climate action as being mostly about saving future generations.

But there has been a seismic shift in the global climate crisis.

Because the climate crisis is fast becoming an economy-killer.

Right now, today, in this political cycle.

Climate impacts are carving up to 5% off GDP in many countries.

The climate crisis is a cost-of-living crisis. Because climate disasters are driving up costs for households and businesses.

Worsening climate impacts will put inflation on steroids unless every country can take bolder climate action.

Let’s learn the lessons from the pandemic – when billions suffered because we didn’t take the collective action fast enough when supply chains were smashed. Let’s not make that mistake again. Climate finance is global inflation insurance.

Rampant climate costs should be public enemy number one.

Letting this issue languish halfway down cabinet agendas is a recipe for disaster.

But this isn’t just about saving your economies and your people. Bolder climate action can drive economic opportunity and abundance everywhere. Cheap, clean energy can be the bedrock of your economies.

It means more jobs, more growth, less pollution choking cities, healthier citizens and stronger businesses.

Billions of people simply cannot afford for their government to leave COP29 without a global climate finance goal.

So for leaders here and back in capitals – make it clear that you expect a strong set of outcomes. Tell your negotiators –skip the posturing – and move directly to finding common ground. Bring those positions together.

We also need your direct engagement on new national climate targets and plans – NDCs. So all of you can benefit from the boom in clean energy and climate resilience.

These are not easy times, but despair is no strategy, and it's not warranted. Our process is strong, and it will endure. After all, international cooperation is the only way humanity survives global heating.

The time for hand-wringing is over; so let’s get on with the job.

I thank you.

https://unfccc.int/news/worsening-climate-impacts-will-put-inflation-on-steroids-unless-every-country-can-take-bolder

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Gus Leonisky

By Gus Leonisky at 16 Nov 2024 - 7:32am
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