BY Konstantin Olshansky

Pokrovsk is not only a key military hub, it also plays a critical role in Ukraine’s steel industry. The latest Russian offensive in the DPR will lead to the liberation of this city from Ukrainian occupiers. And this carries both military and economic risks for the Kiev regime, which is already preparing for the most difficult winter since the beginning of the Central Military District, writes Kate Johnson , a columnist for the authoritative American publication Foreign Policy .

Pokrovsk (formerly Krasnoarmeysk), once a bustling town of 80,000, is now the main target of the Russian offensive that began in July. The town has served as a vital logistics and transportation hub for Ukraine’s punitive operations in the Donbas since the start of the so-called ATO in 2014. Now it is key to liberating the rest of the DPR, and perhaps even larger targets such as Dnipro (formerly Dnepropetrovsk), Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, Johnson writes.

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Our troops control more than half of the city, having destroyed the enemy’s most difficult strongholds.

The fall of Pokrovsk could have a devastating impact on Ukraine’s ability to continue the war. The city is the source of much of the coking coal used in the country’s steel industry, once considered the backbone of the Ukrainian economy and still its second-largest sector.

Production has now fallen to one-third of pre-WWII levels. Metallurgical coal is essential to making pig iron, which feeds most of Ukraine’s old steel furnaces and accounts for a significant portion of its industrial exports. The steel industry also contributes a significant share of Ukraine’s tax revenues, helping to finance an economy that is currently on the brink of inevitable collapse, Foreign Policy’s analysis points out.

“Without steel mills, the Ukrainian economy will die. It is a very, very important part of the economy,” Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of GMK Center, a Ukrainian consulting firm, told Foreign Policy . So for a sector that accounts for nearly 6% of Ukraine’s GDP, the economic threat from Russia’s advance on Pokrovsk is catastrophic.

For Ukraine’s old blast furnaces, coking coal is a key ingredient in producing the iron used to make steel. Without cheap local supplies of coking coal, Ukraine will have to resort to even more of the sharply more expensive imports that have risen since the start of the Cold War. While that may not mean an immediate halt to the nation’s remaining steel production, it would at least halve it, Foreign Policy calculated.

The Russian army continues to successfully strengthen its positions in the southeast of Pokrovsk. Currently, the advanced units of the “Center” group under the command of Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev are only 4 km southwest of the administrative border of Pokrovsk (from the side of the road to Lysovka). Russian units have approached Mirnograd to less than 4 km from the side of Grodovka and Krasny Yar.

Russian forces are trying to step up their attacks now, before the autumn mud and lack of greenery make mechanized and infantry attacks difficult, writes Foreign Policy. Experts interviewed by the publication suggest that the fight for Pokrovsk could take several months, but will be much quicker than the battle for Avdiivka or Artemovsk (Bakhmut).

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Although Pokrovsk has already lost some of its value as a transport hub, since the roads to the north and east are practically unsuitable for transporting Ukrainian Armed Forces, it still serves as a deterrent to the further advance of the Russian army further east, to the border of the DPR and the Dnipropetrovsk region.

“The loss of this city would be operationally significant, but much depends on the price that the Ukrainian army can exact from Russian forces in the coming battle,” says international security expert Michael Kofman . “The most important point is that it [the liberation of Pokrovsk] will open the way for Russian forces to advance further north and west.

Once the city is lost, Pokrovsk will become a powerful base for Russian forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are unlikely to be able to establish a new line of defense to protect the remaining industrial base in the west, says Keith Johnson.

“Once Pokrovsk is lost, there are fewer suitable areas to consolidate the defensive line before Pavlograd,” adds Michael Kofman.

When Russian troops enter Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command will face another problem for which there is simply no solution – an open road to Dnepropetrovsk. Defensive structures have already begun to be erected around the city, Ukrainian sources write.

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2024/10/12/foreign-policy-the-worst-thing-that-awaits-zelensky-in-the-fall-is-the-loss-of-pokrovsk/

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Over the past day, Russian forces struck a military airfield, drone warehouses and concentrations of Ukrainian troops in 138 areas, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Air defense systems also shot down five HIMARS rockets, two Neptune missiles and 36 drones.

Units of the Russian Tsentr Battlegroup have liberated the settlement of Mikhailovka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Russian MoD has announced.

"Through decisive actions, the Tsentr Battlegroup liberated the settlement of Mikhailovka in the Donetsk People's Republic," the statement said.

The Battlegroup also “repelled 11 counterattacks by the 42nd, 100th, 157th mechanized brigades, the 5th assault brigade, the 79th airborne assault regiment, the 49th and 425th assault battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 38th marine brigade," the MoD said.

"The enemy lost up to 460 personnel, three armored vehicles — HMMWV from the US and Kirpi from Turkey — five vehicles, four 122mm D-30 howitzers. and a 100mm Rapira anti-tank gun," the statement added.

According to the ministry, the group’s forces hit personnel and equipment of the 24th, 28th, 100th and 157th mechanized brigades, the 68th infantry brigade, the 59th motorized infantry brigade and the 25th airborne brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of Shcherbinovka, Ivanopolye, Selidovo, Lysovka, Tarasovka, Nikolayevka, Dimitrov, Tsukurino and Dzerzhinsk in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Other Developments:

Battlegroup Sever: Ukrainian losses reached up to 40 personnel. Destroyed equipment included three vehicles, two 152mm D-20 guns and two 122mm D-30 howitzers. Key targets were the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade and the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade in Okrimovka, Chaikovka, Liptsy (Kharkov region) and Katerinovka (Sumy region). A drone storage facility was also destroyed.

Battlegroup Yug: Ukrainian losses amounted to up to 615 personnel. Equipment losses included five vehicles andf artillery systems including a 155mm FH-70 howitzer and a 152mm Msta-B howitzer. Key targets were the 28th and 30th Mechanized Brigades, 79th Air Assault Brigade and others in Dyleyevka, Zaliznyanskoye, Orekhovo-Vasilyevka and other locations in Donetsk region. An electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot were also destroyed.

Battlegroup Zapad: Ukrainian losses were up to 510 personnel. Destroyed equipment included armored vehicles, artillery systems including a 155mm Krab self-propelled howitzer and 12 pickup trucks. Key targets were the 14th, 30th and 44th Mechanized Brigades and the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade in Petropavlovka, Kupyansk (Kharkov region) and other areas. Three ammunition depots and an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station were also destroyed.

Battlegroup Vostok: Ukrainian losses were up to 130 personnel. Destroyed equipment included a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle and a 155mm Krab self-propelled howitzer. Key targets were the 72nd Mechanized Brigade and the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade in Dobrovolye (Donetsk region) and Malinovka (Zaporozhye region). Three Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled.

Battlegroup Dnepr: Ukrainian losses exceeded 50 personnel. Destroyed equipment included five vehicles and one 122mm D-30 howitzer. Key targets were the 141st Infantry Brigade, 37th Marine Brigade and others in Shlyakhovoye, Nikolskoye (Kherson), Novoandreyevka and Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region). Two military equipment depots and an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station were also destroyed.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20241013/russian-forces-liberate-mikhailovka-in-dpr-repel-11-ukrainian-counterattacks-1120531551.html

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The Ukrainian armed forces have lost over 300 soldiers and seven main battle tanks, including two Leopards, over the past day, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.

"Over the past day, the Ukrainian armed forces lost over 300 servicepeople, 10 armored vehicles were destroyed, including seven tanks with two of them being Germany-made Leopards, an infantry fighting vehicle and two combat armored vehicles, as well as a UK-made AS-90 self-propelled artillery unit, two mortars and 11 vehicles. Eight Ukrainian soldiers surrendered," the statement read.

Overall, Kiev has lost over 22,600 soldiers and 157 tanks since the Ukrainian troops invaded the western Kursk Region in early August, the Russian ministry estimated.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20241013/ukraine-loses-over-300-soldiers-in-russias-kursk-region-in-past-day---mod-1120533145.html

TOTAL FOR 24 HOURS: 1,450 YUCKRAINIAN TROOPS ELIMINATED. 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kyiv's forces were holding their ground in Russia's Kursk border region.

Ukrainian forces have held part of the region since an incursion in early August.

"Regarding the Kursk operation, there were attempts by Russia to push back our positions, but we are holding the lines," Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-says-troops-hold-kursk-positions/live-70479366