The similarities between Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton as opposition leader are obvious.

Dutton has taken a leaf from the Abbott “just say no” playbook and has relentlessly highlighted climate change as a key point of difference between the opposition under his leadership and the Albanese Labor government.

But there is another key similarity – the role played by Abbott’s powerful chief of staff, Peta Credlin.

Almost a decade after Abbott and Credlin, now a Sky News host and News Corp columnist, left office, Liberal MPs are sounding the alarm about the influence the pair has over the strategy and tactics of the federal opposition.

Both are in regular contact with Dutton offering advice, encouragement and policy suggestions, according to three Liberal conservatives close to the pair and seven Liberals from the party’s moderate faction, all of whom asked not to be named so they could speak freely.

A key example of the pair’s input on opposition strategy and tactics has been the decision to aggressively pursue outer-suburban seats in major cities and focus less on winning back the formerly Liberal-held teal seats in inner-city Melbourne, Sydney and Perth.

A Liberal ally of Abbott and Credlin who supports Dutton’s strategy said the pair had pushed hard for it.

The teal seats could not be written off, the person said, as that would demoralise some traditional party supporters and donors, “but the base does not live in the teal seats”.

“The Liberals will fight the teals but have decided to do it on policies that appeal to everyone, rather than adapting them for the teal seats,” the person said.

The outer-suburban strategy has caused alarm among some moderate Liberal MPs, with one arguing Abbott and Credlin had been divisive during their last stint at the top of the party and that “we are still suffering from the climate wars he [Abbott] started in 2009”.

“We saw what happened, what we have now with the teals. We have to reclaim middle Australia, women, the Chinese vote, to get back into even minority government,” they said.

A second Liberal MP argued that “the fear among colleagues is we are going back to that Abbott-Credlin style of management – our way or the highway”.

One Liberal close to both Abbott and Credlin downplayed their influence over Dutton, arguing the opposition leader is more pragmatic and less tribal than the former prime minister and “very much his own man”.

“He listens to people, but it doesn’t matter who he speaks to; when he takes a position it is because he has decided to do it,” the person said.

“He takes soundings, he is a good listener, then he aggregates it and follows through. Like a detective [Dutton’s former job], he ponders the evidence and then makes a decision.”

The poisonous relationship between Abbott and his successor, Malcolm Turnbull, led to the sway Abbott and Credlin held over the party diminishing while Turnbull was leader. The two were also less influential during Scott Morrison’s time as prime minister.

But they are back.

Both Abbott and Credlin confirmed they were in contact with Dutton but played down the frequency of their encounters and their influence. Credlin does not have a formal role with the national party machine and is not on Dutton’s staff. They declined to comment further.

A spokeswoman for Dutton said the pair had periodic contact with the opposition leader but also declined to comment further.

Dutton also speaks regularly with Liberal Party federal director Andrew Hirst, who was once Abbott’s deputy chief of staff under Credlin; former prime minister John Howard; former federal director Brian Loughnane, who is married to Credlin; and the party’s federal president, John Olsen, also a former premier of South Australia.

Dutton also takes soundings from long-standing friends in the business community and relies on his wife, Kirilly, whose role and importance is compared by some Liberals to the consequential role Janette Howard played for her husband, John.

Two recent events – the federal Liberal Party intervention in the NSW branchand the defamation trial brought by Victorian state MP Moira Deeming against state opposition leader John Pesutto – have prompted the current and former MPs to share their concerns.

Credlin’s conversations with Deeming were revealed in 30 pages of text messages released during the defamation trial. They show Credlin telling Deeming days before the Aston byelection in March 2023, “I am not interested in damaging our chances in Aston as it would damage Dutton and he’s a mate of mine.”

Later that day she texted Deeming: “I don’t want to bloodnose [sic] Dutton in any way.”

The messages have been widely circulated among federal Liberal MPs who see them as evidence of her influence.

On the recent federal takeover of the NSW branch of the Liberal Party, recommended by Loughnane after a rapid review that was green-lit by Andrew Hirst, one moderate former NSW state Liberal MP said bluntly: “It’s Dutton, Credlin, Hirst and Abbott. They’ve taken over because NSW is a problem as far as the right [faction] is concerned. But we win elections from the centre and they’re trying to wipe that out.”

Allies of Abbott and Credlin downplayed this claim, arguing the pair were “values” conservatives who prosecuted policy ideas and democratisation of the Liberal Party, rather than being factional warriors.

Liberals, including conservatives allied to Abbott and Credlin, and MPs from the moderate faction, said the pair regularly volunteered advice to Dutton on how to take the fight to Labor.

A third well-connected Liberal MP close to Dutton and other conservatives said Abbott was “very invested in Peter’s success. He’s a big believer, he often says that he [Abbott] was regarded as a good opposition leader, but Dutton is better.

“Tony is self-aware. He says he wants the Dutton government to be more successful than the Abbott government. It wouldn’t be multiple times a day, but they speak regularly,” the MP said.

That same MP confirmed that Credlin was also Dutton’s confidante.

“Peter does rate her. She is ruthless and disciplined and focused and ran a tight shop in opposition ... she talks to him regularly. She would contact Peter more than Brian [Loughnane] would contact Peter,” the MP said.

Describing the input of Abbott and Credlin, the Liberal MP and ally said the former prime minister played two roles: as a “sounding board and sanity check” for Dutton when he needed advice and as a motivator.

“Credlin wouldn’t be in his top 10, but Tony would be in his top three. There are things only another opposition leader can understand,” the MP said.

Credlin was more focused on “having input on policy. What are the pressure points electorally and what do people care about in the seats that will change government?”

Dutton has even recently taken to calling Labor’s climate change policies an act of “economic self-harm”, a phrase Abbott regularly deployed against the Rudd/Gillard governments.

Soon after the 2022 election, eight former Abbott staff were working for Dutton. Six remain in the opposition leader’s office.

Inside the parliamentary party, Dutton is close to conservatives including home affairs spokesman James Paterson, shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, social services and housing spokesman Michael Sukkar and legal affairs spokeswoman Michaelia Cash.

Dutton also looks to party moderates including deputy leader Sussan Ley, Senate leader Simon Birmingham and finance spokeswoman Jane Hume. Across factions and state divisions, opposition MPs praise him for consulting widely.

A fourth current Liberal moderate MP said the involvement of Abbott and Credlin in the Dutton opposition had been widely discussed in the party room and was a source of growing concern for some.

“People are surprised at the level of influence Abbott and Credlin have on Dutton,” the MP said. “More so Credlin. Her judgment isn’t the best and she’s very tribal internally too. Dutton isn’t as tribal. He doesn’t look at it through the lens of who will sit in the monkey pod [a meeting room in Parliament House where conservative MPs used to gather for lunch] with me, but they’re obsessed by which column people are in, moderate or conservative,” the MP said.

“The two prompts [for concern] have been the NSW intervention and the Deeming matter. That has caused people to question how much influence they have.”

“Credlin sees her power as talking to the membership every night [on Sky News]. She has gone to war with [Victorian opposition leader John] Pesutto over Deeming but the membership isn’t activated by this issue.” 

Referring to the former prime minister and his chief of staff, the MP said: “They’re just too tribal.”

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-lingering-influence-of-tony-abbott-and-peta-credlin-on-peter-dutton-20240920-p5kc63.html

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