Thursday 19th of September 2024
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the shenanigans of the deep state......

AMERICANS REPRESENTS LESS THAN FIVE PER CENT OF THE WORLD POPULATION, YET THET VIE TO CONTROL THE WHOLE WORLD VIA VARIOUS MEANS, SOME OVERT AND SOME COVERT.

BUT THIS IS NOT THE REAL STORY.

 

THE POINT IS THAT ONLY A VERY FEW AMERICANS (AT THIS STAGE WE SHALL HIGHLIGHT THEM AS A FEW WHITE MEN, RATHER THAN OTHER ETHNIC GROUP) ARE CENTRAL TO THIS CONSPIRACY. IT IS REFERRED TO AS THE DEEP STATE IN A LOOSE WAY OF DEFINITION. WE LOVE LABELS. THE DEEP STATE LOVES POWER. IT’S PSYCHOPATHIC. 

WE SHALL EXPLAIN THAT THERE IS A PYRAMID OF COMMAND, WITH THE CENTRAL CORE OF VERY FEW CONSPIRATORS AT THE TOP, MANAGING VARIOUS LEVELS OF EXECUTIVES TAKING ORDERS WHO IN TURN GIVE INSTRUCTIONS AND COMMANDS TO THE LOWER RANKS, SEEPING DOWN TO THE BILGES OF THE POOREST DUM FOLLOWERS.

THE VARIOUS LEVELS OF OFFICERS DOWN TO THE FOOT SOLDIERS IN THIS CONSPIRACY HAVE NO CLUE AS TO ULTIMATE CONTROL IS, BUT ARE WILLING TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS SUPREMACY “GAME PLAN” BY BEING BRAINWASHED INTO HATING ENEMIES.

 

WE KNOW WHO RUNS THE SHOW. WE WON’T TELL YOU.

SAY, A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO, A BRANCH OF THE BBC MADE A DOCUMENTARY ON THE BOMBING OF THE RAINBOW WARRIOR. 

FOR THE KIDDIES READING THIS, AND FOR WHOM HISTORY IS AN UNINTERESTING FOG THAT HIDES PAST EVENTS, THE RAINBOW WARRIOR — A GREENPEACE VESSEL — WAS THE VICTIM/TARGET OF STATE TERRORISM — NAMELY THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT.

 

SEVERAL FRENCH SECRET AGENTS, DIVIDED INTO THREE TEAMS OF TWO, THREE AND TWO, WERE INFORMED THEY WERE GOING TO BLOW UP THE GREENPEACE BOAT… GREENPEACE WAS AN ORGANISATION DEDICATED TO PEACEFUL ACTIVISM, AND STILL IS. THEN, GREENPEACE WAS TRYING TO EXPOSE THE DANGERS OF GOVERNMENTS, INCLUDING THE FRENCH IN THE PACIFIC, BLOWING UP NUCLEAR BOMBS WILLY-NILLY TO TEST THEIR TECHNICAL CAPABILITY IN DESTROYING PARTS OF THE WORLD — YOUR WORLD, AND YOU OWE A LOT TO PROTESTORS AGAINST THESE TESTS FOR BEING ALIVE TODAY.

 

AT THE TIME, SOME OF THE FRENCH AGENTS HAD TO BE PERSUADED THAT GREENPEACE WAS NEFARIOUS. 

HOW DID THE AUTHORITIES DO THIS?

THE KEY MESSAGE FROM THE SUPERIOR ECHELONS WAS THAT GREENPEACE WAS FINANCED BY THE KGB.

THIS WAS NOT TRUE OF COURSE, BUT, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE COLD WAR BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE SOVIET UNION, THE MENTIONING OF THE KGB WAS LIKE A MAGIC WORD. WE LOVE MAGIC WORDS.

 

TO GO INTO THE NARRATIVE OF WHY THE COLD WAR CAME TO BE WOULD TAKE SEVERAL ENCYCLOPAEDIAS, THUS WE WILL STICK TO A SHORT RESUMé ABOUT IT.

IN 1917, THE BOLSHEVIKS (RUSSIAN JEWS WHO HAD DISCOVERED THE WORKS OF KARL MARX) LAUNCHED COMMUNISM IN RUSSIA…

BY THEN, THE DEEP STATE IN AMERICA, EMBRYONIC AT FIRST, HAD QUICKLY BECOME DETERMINED TO FOSTER DOMINATION OVER THE WHOLE WORLD, LIKE AN EMPIRE.

ALREADY, BY 1917, AMERICA HAD “CONQUERED” (TAMED UNDERFOOT) LATIN AMERICA WITH THE INVENTION OF THE “MONROE DOCTRINE” AND A MAJOR VICTORIOUS WAR AGAINST MEXICO. 

 

THE HICCUP OF THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR, HAD PREVENTED THE SOUTHERN STATES FROM ESCAPING THE “DEEP STATE”, ITSELF SEATED IN THE NORTH. AS PEOPLE COME AND DIE, THE DEEP STATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH A FAR MORE SECRET SOCIETY THAN THE FREEMASONS, AND PRESENTLY RESIDE IN VARIOUS AMERICAN CITIES, WHILE HAVING ITS CONTROLLING OFFICES IN THE PENTAGON AND ITS PROPAGANDA MACHINE ANCHORED IN THE WHITE HOUSE. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHO RUNS THIS HOUSE — EXCEPT THAT DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT PLAY BY THE RULES… THIS IS WHY, THERE HAS BEEN MANY ATTEMPTS TO GET RID OF HIM, ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, INCLUDING VILIFICATION AND A FEW BULLETS.

 

THE CENTRAL MANTRA IS ABOUT AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM — A DICTATE THAT PERMEATES MOST AMERICANS VIA A VARIETY OF SYSTEMIC CHANNELS, BRAINWASHING THAT INCLUDE HOLLYWOOD PROPAGANDA AND THE VERY POWERFUL INDOCTRINATION OF THE MILITARY. THE SCIENTIFIC AND MANUFACTURING SECTORS ARE ALSO PART OF THIS DISCREET MANAGEMENT OF AMERICAN SUPERIORITY. THE "ECONOMY" IS FULL OF ARTISTRY AND ANALYSIS WHICH IS SHORT FOR GREEDY BULLSHIT IN WHICH WE OWE EACH OTHERS THE RIGHT TO GO INTO DEBT AND BURN THE FUTURE.

MOST AMERICAN THINK-TANKS PLAY THEIR PART IN PROMOTING THIS EXCEPTIONALISM, SOMETIMES MIXED WITH CHARITABLE VIRTUES AS NOT TO APPEAR FASCIST — BUT THE DEEP STATE SYSTEM, RUN BY A VERY FEW PEOPLE, NOT MORE THAN 100, POSSIBLY LESS THAN TEN, IS COMPLETELY FASCIST (A WORD INVENTED WAY AFTER THE DEEP STATE WAS INITIATED SOON AFTER THE BRITISH GOT THEIR ARSE KICKED IN 1776) — THUS WE SHALL CALL THIS POSITION AN AUTHORITARIAN MANAGEMENT, LIKE THE ATTITUDE OR SAY POSTURE OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE, PLUS THE DELIGHTFULLY TRAPPINGS OF PRESENT TECHNOLOGICAL MODERNITY, IN WHICH PATENTS ARE USED AS WEAPONS TO CONTROL THE OWNERSHIP OF POWER.

 

LIKE AN ICEBERG SHOWING A SMALL TIP WHILE HIDING MOST OF ITS ICE, THE DEEP STATE USES OFFICIAL VISIBLE CONTROL ORGANISATIONS SUCH AS THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM AND THE BILDERBERG MEETINGS WITHOUT BEING PART OF THE FORMAL DISCUSSIONS, BUT WITH ONE OR TWO PARTICIPANTS BEING FROM THE CORE OF THE AMERICAN DEEP STATE.

SO THE PURPOSE IS SET, AND THE OFFICES OF EXECUTIVES OFTEN ARE ALLOWED AND ENCOURAGED TO MAKE THEIR OWN  DECISION AS TO BEST SERVE THE AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM. 

THIS IS WHERE WARS COMES IN, AS WELL AS A SPECIFIC CULTURE OF FLAG WAVING AND PRIDE IN ALWAYS COMING FIRST — EVEN IF COMPETITIONS ARE RIGGED AND CORRUPT BELOW THE PLIMSOL LINE, BUT UPRIGHT AND SOMEWHAT RELIGIOUS LIKE AN INQUISITION — IN THE SUPERSTRUCTURE.

 

THE SYSTEM IS NOT PERFECT, BUT IT IS WELL-OILED NONETHELESS… AND CLEVER DECEIT FIGURE PROMINENTLY AS A FLUID TOOL OF PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIPULATION.

THOUGH THE DEEP STATE MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN WARS AND TERRORISM, THE DEEP STATE WILL INFLUENCE THE DECISIONS LEADING TO WARS, TO OWN VICTORIES (OR IGNORED DEFEAT) IN BATTLES AND TO PROLONG PROXY FIGHTS. IT WILL USE ORGANISMS LIKE THE CIA TO PRACTICE TERRORISM IN TANDEM WITH EASILY MANIPULATED NAIVE AND GREEDY PEOPLE OF OTHER COUNTRIES — THOSE POOR ILLITERATE PSYCHOPATHS WHO WANT POWER AND MONEY.

CORRUPTION IS THUS RIFE, BUT THE DEEP STATE HAS TO BE CLEAN IN THIS REGARD. OTHERS CAN BEAR THE DAMAGES OF FALTERING AND WONKY MORALITY.

 

THE DEEP STATE CREATES EVIL IN ORDER TO FIGHT EVIL. ONE CANNOT CONQUER WITHOUT SMASHING WHAT EXISTS, AND ONE NEEDS A GOOD REASON TO DESTROY WHAT IS AND REBUILD FOR PROFITS.

WE KNOW THE SURFACE EVENTS THAT HAVE RECENTLY BEEN THE WORK OF THE EMPIRE UNDER THE PREMISE OF PUSHING THE WISH OF THE DEEP STATE — AND OF COURSE BLAMING SOMEONE ELSE FOR THE CRAP.

THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND THE WAR ON THE PALESTINIANS OF GAZA ARE BUT THE LATEST CONTINUATION OF THE ULTIMATE GOAL. 

 

THERE IS RESISTANCE FROM THE “LOCALS” OF COURSE. AND SUCH RESISTANCE IS DESCRIBED BY THE PROPAGANDA AS EVIL, WHEN THE DEEP STATE IS THE MOST EVIL OF ALL SYSTEMS — IN WHICH THE PSYCHOPATHIC STATUS DOES NOT CARE WHO LIVES OR DIES, AS LONG AS THE DEEP STATE SURVIVES ON TOP.

THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IS LIKELY NOT A MEMBER OF THE DEEP STATE, BUT THE JOB DETAILS ARE TO CARRY ON THE PROMOTION OF THE IDEALS OF EMPIRE. THE PRESIDENT’S BRIEFINGS BY ENLIGHTENED BRAINWASHED BIASED ADVISORS AND INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE NOT GEARED TOWARDS MODERATION BY EXPOSING THE TRUTH OF THE PAIN INFLICTED BY THE NEFARIOUS ACTIONS OF THE EMPIRE, BUT DESIGNED FOR DAILY MAINTENANCE OF PERMANENT CONFRONTATION RATHER THAN COOPERATION WITH OTHER POWERFUL NATIONS. 

WEAKER SMALLER NATIONS, RISEN FROM THE ASHES OF HISTORICAL EVENTS SINCE THE VARIOUS MOIRES OF LANGUAGES CREATED LOCALISM, OTHERWISE KNOW AS “TRIBAL PATRIOTISM” OR COLONIAL SLAVE FACTORIES, WILL BE MANIPULATED AND USED LIKE FODDER WITH THE AMERICAN EMPIRE SPONSORSHIP OF LOCAL RULERS, MOSTLY CORRUPT AND COMPROMISED DESPOTS, EAGER TO BE PART OF THIS GREATER GAME OF GREED — WITH BANK ACCOUNTS IN SWITZERLAND.

 

SO CAME THE WAR ON TERROR, THE WAR AGAINST SADDAM WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, THE DESTRUCTION OF THE NORD SEA PIPELINES — FOLLOWING A STRING OF MADE-UP EVENTS SINCE AND INCLUDING THE TWO WORLD WARS, THE VIETNAM ADVENTURE, THE AFGHANISTAN FOLLY, THE CONSTANT THREAT OF FIGHTING CHINA, ET AL — ALL TO MAKE SURE THE DEPUTIES OF THE EMPIRE TIGHTEN THEIR BUTTS BY BEING PART OF THE RULING BY A VERY FEW WHITE MEN, (EVEN IF THEIR ENTERTAINING RULING PUPPET IS COLOURED OR A WOMAN) OVER AN EIGHT BILLION PLUS CRAWLING INDIVIDUALS IN AN ANTS NEST. 

 

THE EUROPEANS WHITE MEN HAD THEIR COLONIES COME AND GONE — WHILE THE LAST STANDING EMPIRE IS THE ANGLO/SAXON HEGEMONY WHICH MORPHED FROM THE OLD BRITISH EMPIRE… USING STRUCTURAL MANAGEMENT AKIN TO THAT OF THE JESUITS.

THE EMPIRE IS NOT PERFECT AND MAKES MISTAKES, SOMETIMES ACCIDENTALLY, SOMETIMES DELIBERATELY AS TOO PROVOKE THE OTHERS INTO A PLETHORA OF STREET FIGHTS. CHAOS IS OFTEN USEFUL TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER.

 

THE SPIRIT OF EXCEPTIONALISM IS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS SYMBOLS OF UNITY — THE FLAG, ADVERTISING, THE MEMORIES OF GLORY, THE FIGHTING SPIRIT THAT HATES PEACE, PLUS THE NOTION OF GOD HAVING GIVEN THE RIGHT FOR THE EMPIRE TO RULE. LIKE THE FORMER KINGS, THE ANCIENT SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE, THE DEEP STATE IS SELF-BLESSED WITH DIVINE POWERS, TO THE POINT THAT IT ACTS LIKE A GOD.

ARE WE WITNESSING THE LAST THROWS OF THE DICE — THE LAST CONFRONTATION IN WHICH PRESENT DANGEROUS ANGLO/SAXON ESCALATION IS PART OF THE PLAN TO PROVOKE AND PROD PEACE-SEEKING NATIONS INTO AN ULTIMATE FIGHT, UNTIL THE LAST BLOW? A NUCLEAR FIST-FIGHT?….  

 

IS THE DEEP STATE RUNNING THE EMPIRE WITH THE DESIRE OF RULING THE ENTIRE PLANET COMPLETELY MAD? SURE IS… 

 

AND THERE IS LITTLE ONE INDIVIDUAL LIKE US CAN DO, IN FRONT OF THE PRESENT TIGHTENING OF INFORMATION. 

THE FREE SPEECH RIGHT HAS BEEN TRAMPLED BY THE OFFICERS OF THE DEEP STATE, WHO HAVE BEEN USING FAKE AND TOTALLY HYPOCRITICAL EXCUSES/REASONS — INCLUDING THAT THE INFORMATION CONTRARY TO THAT OF THE OFFICIAL PROPAGANDA OF THE  EMPIRE IS DESIGNED TO DESTROY THE EMPIRE… AS IT SHOULD BE. THE AMERICAN EMPIRE IS DANGEROUS TO MANY HUMANS.

 

REPEAT AFTER ME: THE AMERICAN EMPIRE IS DANGEROUS.

AND THE DEEP STATE HATES SUCH TRUTH BEING SAID. 

THE EXTRAORDINARY POWER OF CONTROLLING THE INFORMATION THROUGH EXCLUSIVITY AND IMPOSITION OF ONE SPECIFIC LANGUAGE (ENGLISH) ON OTHER NATIONS IS HIGHLY MISUNDERSTOOD. 

LANGUAGE IS A WEAPON FAR MORE EFFECTIVE THAN BOMBS.

CULTIVATING DELUSIONS THROUGH LANGUAGE IS PART OF THE GAME OF DECEIT, IN WHICH EVEN NOVELS SUCH AS 1984, WHICH EXPOSED THE DANGERS OF A DEEP STATE, BECOME PALATABLE LIKE A HAMBURGERS AND FRIES WITH THAT. IT’S PERVERSE.

 

THE NATURALNESS OF PROCESSES HAS BEEN HOMOGENISED, USING ADVERTISING TO MAKE EVERYONE ACCEPT THE CONCEPT OF EMPIRE, WITHIN THE FAKE DIVERSITY OF DUALITY, IN WHICH TRUE EQUITY IS BANNED WHILE PROMOTING INDIVIDUAL’S ABILITY TO RISE TO THE TOP, WHILE MAKING SURE THE REST OF THE POPULACE SINKS TO THE BOTTOM.

THERE ARE MANY TRICKS OF DECEIT — INCLUDING ADAPTABILITY TO CHANGING REACTIVITIES. 

 

THAT A FEW WHITE MEN WANT TO RULE THE PLANET IS A GIVEN. 

BUT THEY HIDE WELL BEHIND A WELL-MANAGED CONSTRUCT OF LIES, GREEDY REWARDS AND AGGRESSIVE POSTURES THAT USES THE WORST OF HUMAN NATURE WITHIN OTHER PEOPLE.

FOR THESE FEW WHITE MEN, THE DEEP STATE IS MORE OF A CONCEPT THAN A TIGHT-KNIT CONSPIRACY IN WHICH THEY ALSO MANAGE THE VARIOUS “COLOURS” OF HUMANITY. 

THE SATISFACTORY REWARD OF THIS CORE IS TO GAMBLE WITH OTHER PEOPLE’S LIVES AND WIN THE LOT — IN A GAME THAT NEVER FINISHES…

FOR THE DEEP STATE COULD BE OUR OWN MIRRORED PSYCHOPATHY, THAT WE TRY TO AVOID BY REMAINING PURE OF SPIRIT, UNTIL WE HAVE TO FIGHT FOR THE LAST BIT OF GRISTLE — OR DIE…

 

BEWARE.

 

 

GUS LEONISKY

POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951 AND RABID ATHEIST.

same dif....

 

Are America’s right and left converging on foreign policy?    By Percy Allan

 

The interview of Jeffrey Sachs, a Social Progressive, by Tucker Carlson, a Social Conservative, makes riveting viewing since its an insight to where the polar enemies of American politics may be converging on their big picture view of US foreign policy.

 

Jeffrey Sachs: The Looming War With Iran, CIA Coups, and Warning of the Next Financial Crisis / Tucker Carlson

Both Sachs and Tucker question American exceptionalism and global hegemony as the way to ensure global order and peace. President Joe Biden’s Democrat administration is an avid champion of that long-held position.

Both agree that Washington’s neocon foreign policy of the last 60 years failed (e.g., Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine) because it is based on a flawed belief that America can and should control events anywhere in the world because of its right to global primacy.

America’s military

The scale of the US military industrial complex (facilitated by the Pentagon and unaccountable CIA) means it can only prosper if there are continuous international tensions and wars. An outbreak of global peace as happened between the end of the Cold War until the start of the War on Terrorism undermines it.

Sachs says the Ukraine war, Iranian confrontation and Taiwan tensions could have been avoided if the US had assured Russia that Ukraine would not join NATO, the Iran nuclear deal had not been scuttled, and if America assured China that it is firmly against Taiwan seceding from “One China”.

Also, America needs to downsize its global military presence (750 foreign bases) to release resources for renewing US infrastructure that is now worse than that of many developing countries.

America’s social divide

On US domestic problems, Sachs says the country is divided by education – college graduates (professionals) who do well and high-school graduates (working class) who do not. This divide was due in large part to automation of factory work (e.g. cars now are made by robots) not just cheaper imports from abroad. But now AI threatens jobs of professionals too.

The result is a concentration of income and wealth by a tiny minority of enterprising entrepreneurs, the top 10 of whom own total assets of US$1.7 trillion.

Politically, the Democrats have become the party of the professionals while the Republicans have hived off the working class from its Democrat base. The latter no longer trust the educated elite to act in their interests because the well-off not only do not recognise their struggles, but do not care.

America’s foreign policy

If this is a preview of politics in future, then the Bernie Sanders Democrats and Donald Trump Republicans could converge on replacing existing US foreign and military policy for a more isolationist approach that demands US allies pay for and cooperate on their own defences. Also, America would accept that other nuclear powers have spheres of influence where they expect their neighbours not to join hostile military alliances any more than America would tolerate Canada or Mexico doing so.

Managing economic crises

Sachs also covers why financial crises happen because economists ignore the importance of stopping liquidity (credit) freezes at a micro-level (e.g. 2008 Lehman Bros bankruptcy) which trigger an investor panic at the macro-level (e.g. all banks, insurers, and non-banks) if not cauterised quickly. That is because economists take a Keynesian view that all recessions are caused by a shortfall in aggregate national demand (like the 1930s Great Depression) when they are often due to other causes (e.g. a desire to teach Lehman Bros a lesson without considering the domino effect of letting it go broke).

Media’s fawning narrative

Finally, both agree the mass media will not tolerate an alternative narrative to the Pentagon/CIA view of the world. Also, its focus on day-to-day issues ignores growing structural challenges to America’s prosperity and unity which normal politics ignores and cannot address. The mass media won’t rock the boat because it is too dependent on government feeds to seriously challenge the status quo.

Only alternative blogs challenge the world view fabricated by the White House. Contrary opinions are shunned by conventional media.

Bottom line

I do not agree with all of Sachs’ views, but he puts a reasoned case for each of his contentions backed up by referenced evidence that deserves scrutiny rather than dismissed as simply “satire” or “enemy capture” as one commentator on the interview implied.

SACHS' VIEWS ARE CORRECT. PERCY ALLAN IS DELUDED.

Where I partially differ with Sachs and think the solutions could be better teased out are Ukraine and Taiwan:

Ukraine 

Sach’s view

Sachs believes the Ukraine war was provoked and could have been avoided through diplomatic efforts. He argues that the expansion of NATO and the US’ role in the 2014 overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian President, Viktor Yanukovych, were key provocations. Sachs emphasises that the path to peace lies in negotiations based on Ukraine’s neutrality and a halt to NATO’s expansion.

He criticises the US for prolonging the conflict for its own interests and suggests that a more effective approach would have been for Russia to engage in diplomacy rather than military action.

My view

Putin had aways demanded that Ukraine remain militarily neutral and not join NATO. But on the eve of invading, he disclosed his true motive which was his long-held conviction that Ukraine was an integral part of Russia’s history and identity. To me, that suggests his goal was always imperialist, though he no doubt wanted Ukraine, like Belarus and Finland, to be giant land buffers between Russia and NATO Europe. Also, his subsequent bombing of civilian apartments, schools, hospitals, and utility infrastructure is a war crime that should be called out. THIS ALLAN VIEW IS ERRONEOUS... PUTIN MADE IT CLEAR AND THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS IN TURKEY IN 2022 MADE IT CLEAR THAT PUTIN DID NOT WANT TO TAKE OVER UKRAINE, BUT MAINTAIN THE IDEAL OF THE MINSK AGREEMENTS IN REGARD TO THE DONBASS — WHICH THE WEST IGNORED... 

So far, Putin’s efforts have backfired. His quest to overpower a sovereign state quickly and illegally, dismally failed. And instead of keeping NATO at bay, it resulted in Finland joining NATO for fear of being the next Ukraine because it too belonged to Russia under the Czars.

But I agree with Sachs that America might have prevented Russia’s invasion if Biden had told Putin that he recognised Russia’s sensitivity to NATO stationing its troops and missiles on Russia’s border. Biden could have given Putin the assurance that Ukraine would remain a neutral state with only access to the European Union, but not NATO. Putin had no objection on the first score. And Biden could have added that if Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO would come to its defence, which is what happened, though it did not involve “boots on the ground”.

Instead, Biden insisted that Ukraine had a right to join NATO if it wished and gave no warning of what America and NATO would do if Russia invaded. This stance was both a red line and a green light to Putin. A red line since further NATO expansion eastwards was unacceptable to Russia and a green light to invade since it left the impression that Ukraine was on its own since Article 5 of the NATO Treaty only obliges NATO members to come to each other’s defence in the event of an armed attack.

Realpolitik view

Donald Trump continues to promise he would end the Ukraine war in a day. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, says Trump told him he is prepared to start negotiations “immediately” if he is elected, even without waiting for the inauguration in January 2025. But even under Kamala Harris the likelihood of negotiations would increase. Biden’s successor will want to quickly end the war so that they can focus on the Middle East and China which they view as more vital to America’s military primacy.

So, what could an agreement look like?

According to NZZ, the long-standing Swiss-German newspaper of record:

“Both sides have maximum and minimum positions that result from their interests. Russia wants to subjugate Ukraine. Ukraine wants to preserve its independence.
“Russia’s minimum position is a stepwise victory. After the first step in 2014 and 2015 – the annexation of Crimea and the conquest of parts of eastern Ukraine, the second step is the expansion of Russian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, along the front line, which has been largely static since December 2022.
“Ukraine’s minimum position is not stated, but it results from the military situation: freezing the conflict along the existing front line.”

Given the war’s stalemate, a Trump presidency might insist that Ukraine accept Russia’s annexation of the Russian-speaking eastern provinces of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. In return, Russia would have to stop bombing Ukraine and pledge to recognising the remainder of Ukraine as a sovereign state which it would not invade or subvert. The war would end. Both sides could then mourn their casualties (killed and injured) which by Christmas should total 500,000 soldiers and 50,000 civilians.

Taiwan

Sach’s view

Sachs advocates for urgent dialogue between the US and China to resolve tensions over Taiwan. He warns that the current escalation cycle is very dangerous and emphasises the need for both sides to engage in meaningful discussions to avoid conflict. Sachs criticises actions that undermine trust, such as high-profile visits to Taiwan by U.S. officials, which he believes exacerbate tensions.

Sachs also highlights the importance of recognising China’s perspective and working towards a multipolar world where the US and China can coexist peacefully.

My view

Hard to argue with that. But the situation is more complex.

China wants peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but will not rule out using force to achieve it. If the latter happened, it could be by blockade of all ships and aircraft travelling to and from Taiwan. These crafts would be diverted to China’s Xiamen Gaoqi seaport and airport across the Taiwan Straits for visa/customs clearance before continuing their journey.

This would signal Taiwan was now an extension of China, not a separate trading and political entity. Negotiations on its formal fusion with China (using the one-sided two-system model applied to Hong Kong) would follow.

War games conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies show that while the US and its allies could potentially defeat a Chinese blockade or invasion of Taiwan, the cost would be extremely high including hundreds of aircraft, dozens of ships, and tens of thousands of service members. It is doubtful that America would take that risk since it could weaken its military capacity and standing in Asia.

Realpolitik view

It is doubtful China, without provocation, would retake Taiwan by force because the military, social and economic consequences are too dire. Militarily it could fail which would be a huge loss of face. Socially, Chinese do not want to fight Chinese as an eminent former Chinese ambassador to the US has said. It would revive horrific memories of the country’s divisive civil war. And economically, America would retaliate by insisting its allies cease trading with China which would plunge it into a deep and prolonged depression that could drag the rest of the world with it.

So, what is the solution to the Taiwan tensions? Sachs is right that the US should cease all provocative acts that imply it might drop its One China Policy in favour of supporting Taiwan’s independence since that is a red line over which China is prepared to wage WWIII.

Instead, America should make it clear that its military aid to Taiwan is strictly conditional on it never declaring independence from China, but instead working towards rapprochement over the long term. Such a kick-the-can down the road strategy is less than satisfactory, but the only one that all sides can live with.

Taiwan’s efforts to make itself a military porcupine makes sense given the lessons of Ukraine. Taiwan ranks as the most democratic country in Asia on the EIU Democratic Index. It would be tragic if it forfeited its local autonomy to China, which is an autocracy.

But to preserve that self-rule requires Taiwan’s government to both conceptually and formally accept that it is part of One China. Just as it did previously. The chauvinist temptation to become a separate nation with America’s help could provoke a needless and destructive war.

https://johnmenadue.com/are-americas-right-and-left-converging-on-foreign-policy/

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

SEE ALSO: https://yourdemocracy.net/drupal/node/43171