Sunday 30th of June 2024

one only.....

“The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position.” – Shanghai Communique, United States government, 1972

In his essay, Sleepwalking Towards War, eminent Yale scholar Odd Arne Westad provides a compelling insight into today’s tensions between the United States and China. Locating the geopolitical landscape of the rising power of China with the declining power of the United States, Westad traces the structural roots of the conflict and makes an analogy with the events and attitudes that led Britain and Germany to disastrous war in 1914.

 

Sleepwalking towards war: will America and China heed the warnings of twentieth-century catastrophe?    By Kym Davey

 

The heart of the essay is Westad’s focus on the vexed problem of Taiwan. Ironically the issue that most consider the Gordian knot presents the most interesting potential solution to the threat of war. Westad cites the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, where President Nixon and Chairman Mao agreed to the One China Policy.

The central wording of the Communiqué, is essential reading – particularly as it is so poorly understood in Australia and the United States. It says:

The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. With this prospect in mind, it affirms the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all US forces and military installations from Taiwan. In the meantime, it will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes. The two sides agreed that it is desirable to broaden the understanding between the two peoples. To this end, they discussed specific areas in such fields as science, technology, culture, sports and journalism, in which people-to-people contacts and exchanges would be mutually beneficial. Each side undertakes to facilitate the further development of such contacts and exchanges.

Westad proposes that the principles and intent of the Shanghai Communiqué be revisited by the parties. To prevent misunderstandings and the drift towards conflict Washington could say that it will under no circumstances support Taiwan’s independence. In return, Beijing could declare that China will not use force unless Taiwan formally takes steps toward becoming independent. Such a clear affirmation of the original agreement would make a war over Taiwan much less likely. It may also lead to a more substantial détente between the great powers.

The full version of Odd Arne Westad’s, Sleepwalking Towards War: Will America and China Heed the Warnings of Twentieth-Century Catastrophe? can be viewed below.

https://johnmenadue.com/sleepwalking-towards-war-will-america-and-china-heed-the-warnings-of-twentieth-century-catastrophe/

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/sleepwalking-toward-war-united-states

 

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLay8Cm9h04

THE WW1 CONSPIRACY

not patriotic.....

 

 

‘Draft Notice’ from the Shop of Horrors

    by 

 

The coming wars are not patriotic. They are the result of the abject failure of political leadership and a long trail of lies stretching back decades. 

Those who control the narrative and push for ever-increasing war as a solution to all ills are leading America, and America’s future generations, into an abyss from which we may never be able to recover. 

Generations of political leaders have destroyed America’s economic largess through the signing of trade agreements which exported jobs and industry abroad. They have removed consumer protections and supported massive bailouts of casino capitalism, and now – again – predators are circling to extract every cent possible from the public purse through the forever war machine. 

This time, however, it’s not just our tax dollars they’re after. It’s our children. 

The military industrial complex, which President Eisenhower so presciently described, today has a death grip  on America’s budget, politics, media narrative and foreign policy. 

We hear a brassy marching band and chowder society beating the war drum. In its wake is an infernal sucking sound as resources are pulled away from America’s domestic economy, into destructive posturing which leads to tragic hot wars and bankruptcy. 

What follows is the hemorraging of our nation’s wealth. Instead of  building things of domestic value, we blow things up around the world.  Instead of investing money into things which help our domestic economy thrive, America borrows and spends for war,  creating a mechanism for rampant inflation.    

America is already saddled with staggering war debts to the tune of trillions of dollars, with daily expanding interest payments, while  our economy weakens, our nation’s cities  crumble and the Middle Class fades.   

America is imploding from the inside while our leaders take us on an insane around-the-world journey of destruction.

We are constantly being fed a false narrative to condition us to take positions in support of U.S. taxpayer dollars and materiel shipped to other lands for fabricated wars which leave us insecure, financially weak and morally bankrupt.

We saw this with Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and now with wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East. 

Our  anxiety-dispensing 24-hour news cycle demands constant glutting like Seymour Krelboyne’s human flesh-and-blood-eating plant in the Little Shop of Horrors crying:  “Feed Me!”  

The government feeds the news beast.  Fear-based clicks follow.  Fear paralyzes judgment, inhibits action and empowers corrupt leaders.  Those in journalism who raise questions about the veracity of reports from world capitals are given orders from headquarters, which if not followed, lead to being cashiered.  

Make no mistake, this current system is set up for wider wars. The kleptocratic war machine is in hyperdrive and, in the words of a political hack who was about to get a windfall of taxpayers’ cash for his favorite enterprise, with an expectation of reciprocity:“I can smell the bacon cooking!”  Except now they are roasting a whole hog..

Enter the draft!

The scaffold for a large military draft infrastructure is being constructed to prepare to sacrifice young Americans to global war. 

The first step is automatic registration for Selective Service, at a time when military recruitment is lagging, badly.  According to USA Facts, “There were 1.3 million active duty military in 2023, 41% fewer than in 1987 – – the recent peak.”  Forever wars have outstripped recruiting.  The voracious war machine needs to be fed new blood.

The House of Representatives, on June 14, 2024, passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a military spending authorization bill, which quietly included a Democratic-sponsored provision for automatic registration for the draft for 18-26 yr. old males.  The U.S. Senate Armed Forces committee released its proposal for women to be subject to the same draft registration requirements.  

All eyes on the Senate to see if they will put 18-26 year olds into the Selective Service’s automatic draft registration scheme. Unless this process is brought to a halt in the US Senate, all young U.S. men and women, fully 32 million Americans, will be subject to a draft.

Recent news reports indicate that several Republican senators are balking at drafting women and it could delay the passage of the NDAA into which the conscriptive language is folded.

All young men 18 years old are currently required to register for Selective Service, which manages the draft.  This system currently operates with a light touch. However, automatic registration for the draft  is an altogether different animal.  It will allow the Selective Service System to use the most sophisticated databases to track young Americans. This creates a surveillance system for one purpose, and one purpose only, to make sure young people can’t escape going to war.  This raises several constitutional questions, regarding the Fourth and Fifth Amendment.

Women are currently free to enlist, but are not subject to the same Selective Service requirements.  Women are already prominent in the nation’s defense, as volunteers.  According to the MilitaryOne 2022 Demographic Profile of service members, 17.5% of the active duty enlistees are women. 

The average age of both men and women in active duty is 28.5 years.

Those who see automatic registration of women for the draft as a step in the direction of equal rights are missing something essential.  This is not a case of  “What’s good for the goose is good for the gander,”  or  vice versa.  

Here both goose and gander are being led to slaughter, based on…. what?  Politics?  Profits? Hegemony, Lies?  

It is up to all of us, as the current generation of parents stewarding America, to protect our future, our country, our children from such corrupt thinking..

Those who pooh-pooh automatic registration as an homage to government efficiency and not a harbinger of a full-blown draft, need to consider the following scenarios:

First the Draft, Then the War

Historically Americans have not been eager for war. In 1939, an estimated 94% of Americans professed a desire for neutrality at the start of WWII, absent any direct attack on America.   

The first and last peace-time draft was in September of 1940, and affected men were ages 21 to 45. The  government, in anticipation of entering a state of war, instituted that draft, more than a year before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.  The US then declared war against Japan (December 8, 1941) in the Pacific and in Europe against Germany and Italy (December 11, 1941).  

Women were not drafted during WWII,  but served critical roles in a range of national defense positions

VIETNAM: The Lie, the War, the Draft

The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, passed by Congress on August 7th, 1964 became the legal basis for the US escalation of the War in Vietnam.  War was pursued due to a fictitious intelligence report of a North Vietnamese attack, in the Gulf of Tonkin, upon US Naval assets on August 4th 1964.   

The August 4th Gulf of Tonkin incident was the whole-cloth fabrication of  the U.S. National Security Agency.  Congress was rushed into a war against Vietnam based on entirely false premises,  murderous lies, for which no one in the government has ever been held accountable. 

Fifty-eight thousand, two hundred and twenty courageous and dedicated U.S. soldiers sacrificed their lives to this cause, almost one third of them draftees.   At least two million and as many as six million civilians lost their lives in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia during the war, which was accelerated under the Johnson Administration. 

Automatic registration for the Vietnam-era draft went into effect in 1972.  Nearly two million men were drafted. 

Iraq:  The Lie, the War

On September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were attacked by several hijacked airliners, more than 3,000 individuals died.  In response, on September 18, 2001, Congress authorized the Use of Military Force to pursue those responsible. 

The Bush Administration blamed Iraq.  It was a lie.  Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. However, in March 2003, the Administration prosecuted a war against Iraq as retribution for 9/11, with the additional horrifying, and additionally false, tale that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction it was preparing to use against America.   

Once again, Americans were led into war based upon an intricately constructed false narrative.   Four thousand, four hundred and thirty-one  Americans lost their lives in the Iraq war. With this lie, America was responsible for the deaths of one million Iraqis. 

We learned nothing from Vietnam and even less from Iraq.  It is a condition aptly described by the brilliant historian, Gore Vidal, as the “United States of Amnesia.”  The narrative of those wars has receded into the mists of confabulation. In a state of constant conflict, one war bleeds into another.  When a lie is a predicate, and the scope of the war global and the adversaries formidable, hold onto your children..

The Wars in Our Face

America’s global role should be peacemaker, bridge builder, using diplomacy to settle differences and avert conflict.  But, America doesn’t do that.  It chooses to fan and fuel the flames of war around the world.  

So, US naval assets are under attack in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis opposing US support of Israel in Gaza.  The Biden Administration has kept Israel in supply of weapons and bombs.  The Gazan death toll is now approaching 38,000.  

The US has also affirmed support for Israel at war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.  At the same time National Guard units from Ohio and Illinois have being activated and sent to the Middle East.  Israel will not be able to expand war in the Middle East without the United States.

Ukraine has been a pawn in the Western effort to draw Russia into a wider war.  The people of Ukraine have paid a horrible price for the war, destruction of homes, families, farms, and businesses.   But, as they say, about the healthcare system, the money is in maintaining sickness in people, not health.  For the military industrial complex, the money is in war, not in peace. 

If the U.S. truly cared about Ukraine it would not have usurped its neutrality, overthrown its government, coaxed it to attack Donetsk and Luhansk, observe the sacrifice of 600,000 Ukrainians,  blocked a peace agreement two years ago, and facilitated the privatization of land. This is not in any way to excuse Russia for its actions in causing death and destruction, but the causal chain cannot go unexamined.

The escalation of the war between Ukraine and Russia is morphing into open conflict between the United States and Russia.  Highly sophisticated missiles, with cluster munitions, made in the U.S., programmed by the U.S. military and launched from Ukraine under U.S. supervision, are now attacking and killing Russian civilians.  The U.S. has promised to send additional  US military assistance to Ukraine for another DECADE.  

It’s time for our country to awaken to the real impetus here, and the dynamics at play, which are now about to draw a new generation into harm’s way. The powers that be know that when young Americans start to die in battle, the country will rally to dive headlong into the abyss. 

Given our recent history, it will not take much for those who benefit from war to manufacture an incident to take America’s youth on a conscripted ride into the Valley of the Shadow of Death. 

Reprinted with permission from the Kucinich Report.

 

https://ronpaulinstitute.org/draft-notice-from-the-shop-of-horrors/

 

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social stability.....

 

China’s Third Plenum: domestic consumption is the key to stimulating domestic demand      By Zichen Wang

 

The Communist Party of China (CPC) has said the upcoming Third Plenary Session of its current 20th Central Committee will focus on “deepening comprehensive reform to advance Chinese modernisation.” Officially, the reform agenda will only be unveiled at the Third Plenum. But that doesn’t mean there are zero signals in public before it happens.

Today, I’m focusing on an article by Han Wenxiu, the ministerial-level official whose title is executive deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs, available today (Sunday, June 16) in the latest Qiushi/Seek Truth, the flagship journal of the CPC Central Committee.

The reason is simple: a minister whose job is to help craft China’s economic and financial policies laying out six areas of potential reforms one month ahead of the Third Plenum, which will focus on reforms, in the most authoritative journal of the governing party.

It is also positioned at a prominent position in this issue of Qiushi/Seek Truth, as it follows an article by the General Secretary and an editorial by Qiushi/Seek Truth, and above other ministers’ contribution.

In the last newsletter, I shared Tsinghua Professor David Daokui Li’s public claim that Beijing has finally come around to the conclusion that domestic consumption is the key to stimulating domestic demand.

In the telling Han Wenxiu, who is apparently closer to decision-making, potential policy moves on the demand side flagged by Li, did feature as the fifth point out of six. However, the supply side still features prominently as the first point.

Han’s article employs a lot of Beijing’s official language that is broad and difficult to digest without significant background knowledge of China’s policy-making. More effectively, the six areas may be used as a framework to gauge which specific policy move could fit into each of the six areas.

Below are excerpts from:

Promoting High-Quality Development via Deepening Reforms

Adhering to the Main Tasks of Promoting High-Quality Development through Deepening Reform

In the new era and on the new journey, promoting high-quality development is a profound transformation that concerns the overall development of our country. It is necessary to fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and make good use of the crucial move of reform and opening up to effectively enhance the quality and achieve reasonable growth in quantity in the economy.

(1) Deepening Reform in the Systems and Mechanisms for Education, Science, Technology, and Talent, Promoting Innovative Development, and Accelerating the Construction of a Modern Industrial System

…We must accelerate the construction of a high-quality education system, strengthen the independent cultivation of high-quality talent, and actively attract, retain, and make good use of top overseas talent. Deepen the reform of the scientific and technological system, improve the new system for mobilising resources nationwide to make key technological breakthroughs, strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological force, and optimise the allocation of innovation resources. Strengthen the position of enterprises as the main body of scientific and technological innovation, and promote deep integration of industry, academia, and research. Deepen the reform of the talent system and mechanism, and cultivate a large number of high-quality talents with both moral integrity and professional competence.

…It is necessary to further comprehensively deepen reform, focus on removing obstacles that hinder the development of new quality productive forces, and form new types of production relations that are compatible with it. We must accelerate the development of new quality productive forces according to local conditions, nurture and expand emerging industries, advance the layout and construction of future industries, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system. Our traditional industries are large in scale and extensive in scope, and they are the main sources of employment, income, and livelihood security. Developing new quality productive forces should not neglect or abandon traditional industries, but must use advanced and applicable technologies to transform and upgrade traditional industries. The development of new quality productive forces in various regions should be based on actual conditions, avoiding blind conformity and bubbles, and selectively promote the development of new industries, new models, and new drivers based on local resource endowments, industrial foundations, scientific research conditions, and ecological environment.

(2) Deepening the Implementation of the Main Functional Area System and Comprehensive Reform in Agriculture and Rural Areas, Promoting Coordinated Development, and Accelerating the Formation of a New Pattern of Urban-Rural Integration and Regional Coordinated Development

…We must strive to narrow the urban-rural development gap, deeply advance people-centred new-type urbanisation, accelerate the urbanisation of citizens transferred from agriculture, deepen the reform of the household registration system, and promote the comprehensive coverage of basic public services for permanent residents in urban areas. Promote comprehensive rural revitalisation, consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, consolidate and improve the basic rural management system, accelerate the construction of a strong agricultural country, and build beautiful, liveable, and workable villages.

Our country is vast and populous, and coordinating regional development is a major task. We must deeply implement the regional coordinated development strategy, effectively implement the national territorial spatial planning, and promote the regions to follow a path of reasonable division of labor and optimised development according to their conditions, so that the comparative advantages and main functions of each region can be effectively utilised. Promote the new developments in the western development, the revitalisation of the northeast, the rise of the central region, and the leading development of the eastern region. Promote the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, and the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, continuously improving the balance, coordination, and sustainability of development.

(3) Deepening the Reform of the Ecological Civilisation System, Promoting Green Development, and Making Green and Low-Carbon the Basic Colour and Future Advantage of Chinese-Style Modernisation

…We must firmly establish and practice the concept that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,” adhere to the integrated protection and systematic management of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, and deserts, improve policies and standards that support green development in finance, investment, and pricing, improve the ecological protection compensation system, and establish a mechanism for realising the value of ecological products. Continue to fight the battles for blue skies, clear waters, and clean lands, and accelerate the construction of a beautiful China. Actively and steadily promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, accelerate the creation of green and low-carbon industrial and supply chains, and form green and low-carbon production and lifestyles.

We must both stand on the basic national condition of coal-dominated energy and insist on establishing the new before abolishing the old, making good use of coal and coal-fired power as a bottom-line guarantee, while also deeply advancing the energy revolution, planning and constructing a new type of energy system, and accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy structure. We must continue to vigorously develop new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind power, strengthen the research and application of frontier technologies in energy storage and hydrogen energy, accelerate the construction of a new type of power system, and ensure the clean and efficient use of traditional energy to contribute to achieving the “dual carbon” goals [China would achieve carbon peaking before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060, the so-called ‘Dual Carbon Goals’ (DCGs)]. Improve the regulation of total energy consumption and intensity, focusing on controlling fossil energy consumption, and gradually transition to a “dual control” system of total carbon emissions and intensity.

(4) Improving the System and Mechanism of High-Level Opening-Up, Promoting Open Development, and Facilitating Domestic and International Dual Circulation

…We must enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic circulation and, through this, form a strong attraction for global factor resources, a strong competitiveness in intense international competition, and a strong driving force in global resource allocation. From the perspective of China as a whole, construct the domestic circulation, break down administrative barriers and artificial obstacles, eliminate local protectionism and “involutionary” vicious competition, and accelerate the construction of a unified national market.

We must organically combine the domestic circulation and international circulation, leverage the domestic circulation to drive the international circulation, and use the international circulation to promote the domestic circulation, forming a new development pattern with the domestic circulation as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international circulations. Adhere to the basic national policy of opening-up, continue to expand high-level opening-up, especially steadily expand institutional opening-up in rules, regulations, management, and standards, and improve the quality and level of international circulation to broaden the development space for Chinese-style modernisation. Practice the global governance concept of consultation, contribution, and shared benefits, adhere to true multilateralism, actively participate in the reform of the World Trade Organisation, and promote the improvement of a more just and reasonable global economic governance system.

(5) Deepening Reforms in the Field of People’s Livelihood, Promoting Shared Development, and Continuously Enhancing People’s Sense of Gain, Happiness, and Security

…We must adhere to development for the people, rely on the people for development, and let the people share the fruits of development, improve the distribution system, and enable people to lead high-quality lives.

We must adhere to the principle of distribution according to labor as the mainstay, with multiple distribution methods coexisting, and construct a system of primary distribution, redistribution, and tertiary distribution that are coordinated and supportive. Fully implement the policy of people finding their own employment, market-based employment, government-promoted employment, and entrepreneurship encouragement, improve the employment support policies for key groups, deepen the reform of the employment system and mechanism, strengthen the protection of workers’ rights and interests, and continuously promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in employment. Continuously improve a multi-level social security system that covers the entire population, balances urban and rural areas, is fair and unified, and is sustainable, improve standards, and effectively secures the bottom line of people’s livelihood. Establish and improve the fertility support policy system, reduce the cost of childbirth, upbringing, and education, strive to achieve a moderate fertility level, and strive to achieve high-quality population development.

(6) Improving the System and Mechanism for Secure Development, Effectively Coordinating Development and Security, and Achieving Positive Interaction between High-Quality Development and High-Level Security

…Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, our national security has been comprehensively strengthened, and we have withstood the tests of risks and challenges from politics, economy, ideology, and nature. At the same time, we must also see that our country currently faces a more severe national security situation, and the mechanism for overall coordination of national security needs to be improved urgently to better coordinate development and security.

Development is the foundation, and we must continue to deepen reform, constantly liberate and develop social productivity, and provide more solid material and technical support for national security with sustained and growing economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and comprehensive national strength. Security is the bottom line, and we must improve the system and mechanism for safe development, implement the overall national security concept, improve the legal, strategic, policy, and risk monitoring and early warning systems for national security, and enhance the capacity for disaster prevention, mitigation, relief, and major emergency response. Effectively maintain economic security, ensure the security of food, energy resources, and important industrial and supply chains, and enhance the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources. Improve the risk prevention and control mechanism, enhance the ability to resolve risks, and consolidate the results of the battle to prevent and resolve major risks.

Promoting high-quality development requires both effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, focusing on achieving reasonable economic growth, full employment, stable prices, and a basic balance in international payments. We must strive to keep major economic indicators within a reasonable range, and continue the new chapter of the “two miracles” of rapid economic development and long-term social stability.

 

Republished from Pekingnology, Substack June 16, 2024

 

https://johnmenadue.com/chinas-third-plenum-domestic-consumption-is-the-key-to-stimulating-domestic-demand/

 

 

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