Tony Abbott and the opposition must be careful their wrecking-ball approach doesn't rebound and hurt them.
It's strike one against Tony Abbott's scare campaign on the carbon tax and mining tax. "Australia reported its economy was the fastest-growing in the developed world in the first three months of 2012, sweeping aside growing gloom," reported The Wall Street Journal this week.
With the new taxes due to take effect in three weeks, the facts on the health of the Australian economy show a very different country to the one that, if Abbott is right, should rightfully be cringing in fearful anticipation.
The national accounts and the employment figures this week showed an economy in robust health, creating jobs at a solid clip. While the US economy grew by 0.46 per cent in the three months to the end of March, Australia's grew by 1.3 per cent. It was the fastest pace in four years.
In the course of the full 12 months, where the American economy expanded by 2 per cent, Australia's grew by 4.3. It is Australia's 20th consecutive year of growth, making it unique among the rich countries.

If you accept, as you should, the figures are roughly right - especially viewed over a run of months or quarters - you have to ask how our perceptions of the economy have got so far astray from statistical reality.
It's less surprising business people's perceptions are off the mark. They're not students of economic theory or statistical indicators; their judgments are unashamedly subjective, based on direct experience and the anecdotes they hear from other business people, plus an overlay of what the media tell them.
More surprising is the evidence economists' judgments and forecasts aren't as rigorously objective and indicator-based as they like to imagine. They're affected by the mood of the business people they associate with and aren't immune to the distorted picture of reality spread by the media (because they highlight events that are interesting - and, hence, predominantly bad - rather than representative).
Like the punters, business people probably overestimate the macro-economic significance of falls in the sharemarket - particularly when our sharemarket is taking its lead from overseas markets reacting to economic news in the US and Europe that doesn't have much direct bearing on our economy.
Similarly, all the bad news from America and, particularly, Europe we're hearing from the media night after night can't help infecting our views about our economy.

Well, it is much easier to describe how Labor loses - they lose because of the carbon tax, the dislike for the PM, the asylum seeker issue and more.

By the way, a short word in defence of reporting opinion polls. In a better political world, there would be no polls, at least not until near election time and maybe not even then. The impact of polls is largely destructive, distorting policy debates and accelerating leadership changes.

But polls exist, and you can't wish them away by ignoring them - and if you do ignore them out of some misplaced high-mindedness, you will not be aware of one of the factors driving politics.

If, for example, you were wondering why the opposition has largely abandoned its attack on Craig Thomson, you need to know that both Nielsen and Newspoll have provided evidence it was doing the opposition and Tony Abbott some harm.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-22/benson-gillard-anniversary/4086206?WT.svl=theDrum

From IA

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/ministerial-responsibility-in-australia-accuracy-please/

WITH FIVE YEARS of Australia’s Labor Government up shortly, commentators will reflect on many issues.

One deserving more coverage than it has received thus far is ministerial integrity. It also deserves better coverage. Some analysis has been characterised by significant inaccuracy.

Many Australians have come to expect this from the mainstream media. But academia?

A recent paper in the Australian Journal of Politics and History, June 2012, titled Newspaper Reporting and Changing Perceptions of Ministerial Accountability in Australia raises intriguing questions.

It also makes startling assertions, based on figures derived from newspaper reportage. Unfortunately, those figures are inaccurate.

How about ministerial accountability has risen markedly in the last five years? Just on the figures Dowding and Lewis have provided, this seems reasonable. But when accurate data is examined, it becomes virtually unassailable.

Three (not five) ministers were removed under Whitlam for ethical breaches or competence: TreasurerJim Cairns, Minerals and Energy Minister Rex Connor and Labour and Immigration Minister Clyde Cameron. Cairns was, in fact, shifted twice.

Executive Council members sacked or forced to resign under Fraser for ethical or competence failures were: Primary Industry Minister Ian Sinclair, Treasurer Phillip Lynch, Health Minister Michael MacKellar, Business and Consumer Affairs Minister John Moore, Administrative Services Minister Reg Withers, Telecommunications Minister Victor Garland, Environment and Community Development Minister Ivor Greenwood, Finance Minister Eric Robinson and Veterans’ Affairs Minister Glenister Sheil. That is nine (not eight, as stated by Dowding and Lewis).

Under Hawke, there were three (D&L, eight): Special Minister of State Mick Young, Environment and Tourism Minister John Brown and, at a stretch, Treasurer John Kerin. Young resigned again later, when Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs.

Under Keating, three also (D&L, also three) : Transport and Communications Minister Graham Richardson, Industry Minister Alan Griffiths and Environment, Sport and Territories Minister Ros Kelly.

Under Howard, Executive Council members removed following breaches of ministerial responsibility were: Assistant Treasurer Jim Short, Parliamentary Secretary to Treasury Brian Gibson, Parliamentary Secretary to the Health Minister Bob Woods, Small Business and Consumer Affairs Minister Geoff Prosser, Transport Minister John Sharp, Administrative Services Minister David Jull, Science MinisterPeter McGauran, Resources Minister Warwick Parer, Health Minister Michael Wooldridge, Workplace Relations Minister Peter Reith, Aged Care Minister Bronwyn Bishop, Parliamentary Secretary Bill Heffernan, Human Services Minister Ian Campbell, Territories and Local Government Minister Wilson Tuckey and Minister for Ageing Santo Santoro.

That’s fifteen (D&L: 10). Departures of seven of these – Woods, Parer, Wooldridge, Reith, Bishop, Heffernan and Tuckey – were pragmatically delayed. Some, with an election approaching, were permitted to complete the parliamentary term before the sacking took effect. In the case of Peter Reith’s multiple serious breaches, his departure was not just from the ministry but from Parliament. All seven were forced removals of senior ministers nonetheless.

Since Labor came to power in 2007, there has been one (D&L, 2): Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon.

Hence more accurate numbers of ministers sin-binned over ethical or ministerial performance issues are:

Gough Whitlam: 3
Malcolm Fraser: 9
Bob Hawke: 3
Paul Keating: 3
John Howard: 15
Rudd/Gillard: 1

Subsequent correspondence with one of the authors confirms that Dowding and Lewis count Immigration Minister Stewart West, Telecommunications Minister Gary Punch and Treasurer Paul Keating as forced resignations during the Hawke period.

None of these departures, however, related to ministerial performance and none was forced. West resigned in protest against uranium mining and Punch at the Sydney Airport decision. Both were reinstated. Keating freely chose a leadership challenge knowing in advance he was choosing a career change — either to become PM or backbencher; it had nothing to do with portfolio administration.
The authors have also confirmed that they count Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd as forced Labor resignations.

So they have included departures driven by political party decisions and career aspirations as well as ethical and competence matters.

Hence equivalent departures during the other regimes must also be counted. Under Fraser these included Attorney-General Robert Ellicott, Industrial Relations Minister Andrew Peacock and Health and Social Security Minister Don Chipp. During the Howard years, disendorsed Parliamentary Secretary for Health Grant Tambling was forced out and David Kemp resigned after a series of policy defeats — or would have had Howard not sacked him first.

Including all these, the figures now appear to be (at least):

Gough Whitlam: 3
Malcolm Fraser: 12
Bob Hawke: 7
Paul Keating: 3
John Howard: 17
Rudd/Gillard: 2