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the resurgence of extreme right-wing political parties.....

The latest split in Australia’s conservative Coalition is yet another signal the old, established rules no longer apply.

No longer in Australia, just as they no longer apply in an ever more fractious and chaotic world.

The Old Order is breaking down and the New Order, under the quasi-leadership of the United States mogul king, appears to be causing chaos to divide and conquer.

 

The death of the Coalition and a requiem for the Old Order

By David Donovan

 

A new and more stable structure will evolve over time after this current chapter of rending, destruction and bloodshed comes to a close. Will any good come of it? It remains to be seen.

The Ley line: Coalition split foreshadows the end of the Liberal Party

The Coalition split today, coming on a Day of National Mourning, will cause no great mourning for either side of politics, or the nation generally, in fact.

Because it is a long-established fact that the only political parties the Liberals and Nationals hate more than Labor are each other. To cause it an uneasy alliance is like calling Sussan Ley an ineffective Leader.

Stepping over the Ley line

Because accidental Liberal Party Leader Sussan Ley, who hastened the split by sacking three National Party MPs from cabinet on Wednesday night, is not merely ineffective. Uneasily assuming the mantle of leadership after extreme right-wing ghoul Peter Dutton scared voters away from the Liberal Party in panic and dread at the last Federal Election, Ley has carried on his work in her own particular way.

The way is to be wooden in posture, robotic in presentation, off-key in messaging and generally pursuing every political policy that seems most impractical or unpopular with voters.

In fact, when it comes to votes, Ley seems to be like Kryptonite to the Liberals, Australia’s most super-successful political party since Federation. The latest Newspoll numbers show the Liberals' primary vote support now down to a record low 21%, below One Nation at 22%. Under Ley, after the Coalition split, the Liberal Party is now, on those numbers, not even the leading Australian conservative force.

Pauline panic

Panic over One Nation’s sudden surge in support came in the frothy wake of former Nationals leader and famous raconteur Barnaby Joyce’s recent defection to that populous, anti-immigrant, Pauline Hanson-led Party.

Those factors were likely the main drivers behind the move by National Leader David Litteproud to tear up the Coalition partnership today. Far more than Sussan Ley in attempting to bully the National into voting Labor’s hasty and poorly considered response to the tragic recent ISIS-led international terrorist attack at Bondi.

Though this legislation’s headline legislation, an attempt to placate the powerful Zionist lobby’s demands, effectively outlaws anti-Israel protests against that nation’s prolific human rights abuses and war crimes against the people within its subject nation, Palestine.

Coalition immolation

Sadly, it seems the three Nationals ministers who crossed the floor and triggered the Coalition split did so not to protest against this obvious attack on the people's democratic right to protest, but rather to object to a further tightening of gun laws. A further restriction on the ability of people, such as the Bondi shooters, to obtain the weapons used to kill 15 innocent people at a public event.

The package of legislation, including the gun laws, ultimately passed in Parliament late Wednesday night, without the need for the votes of the three Nat rebels. Ironically, it was on the one piece in a controversial package of legislation designed to aid social cohesion. And perhaps the only bill in the package to which almost no decent, law-abiding Australian outside of the National Party’s rural pig-shooting base is likely to have the slightest objection.

It is a sign of Ley’s profound political naivete, rather than simply chastising the errant National MPs for exercising their democratic constitutional mandate to represent their electors, she sacked them from their portfolios and caused chaos. A more astute leader would have anticipated this would trigger the split that the Nationals were no doubt desperate to emerge.

On the other hand, the split was going to happen anyway. In the opinion of this publication, the Coalition is finished. This outdated post-WW2 alliance of conservative parties, set up by Menzies around the same time as Israel, at the behest of big business and with the express intention of keeping Labor from power, is in its death throes.

This has less to do with the spectacular maladministration of Ley, or even the woebegone succession of woeful Liberal leaders over the last two decades, but rather because the world has changed since 1945. What happens in Australia, or an incompetent leader or two, are trifling matters in comparison to the tectonic forces reshaping our world.

We are in similar times to those that led to the two World Wars. Pressure-cooker environments of massive global instability and a host of bad actors acting not for the common good but for personal gain.

Old World Order out

For instance, World War I was the final showdown between several old empires that had run out of lands to sequester. A New World Order, created by the Balfour Agreement (1917) and the Versailles Treaty (1919), which combined to casually and cursorily rewrite national borders and distributed the spoils of war.

World War II was the sequel of the first, as a beaten-down Germany resurging from a crippling Depression and still suffering the impost of swingeing reparations to the victorious nation, sought to regain lost pride and the lebensraum (living space) to which a devious demagogue persuaded they had been unfairly denied.

Right now, the massive growth in world population and increasing inequality and living standards between Western nations and the developing world have led to a massive flood of immigration from those nations. The reaction to this outpouring in the West has been the resurgence of extreme right-wing political parties using populist anti-immigrant rhetoric. It has led to Britain abandoning Europe in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

It has been capitalised upon by Trump, who has mischievously used this rhetoric to capture the support of an impoverished working poor, struggling through the ill-effects of late-stage crony capitalism and industrial decline. He has been illicitly supported by a former superpower, Russia, smarting from the loss of its Empire and led by another devious dictator, eager to retain lost glories, and is at war with Ukraine.

Trump's agent, whether wittingly or not, has threatened traditional American allies such as Canada and Denmark with U.S. military might to acquire their land. To Putin’s undoubted delight, the military alliance of the Western powers, NATO, is now on the brink of collapse.

So... now what?

Here in Australia, the rise of One Nation and the collapse of the Liberal Party can be equated to the collapse of the Conservative Party in Britain, which has now been superseded by Nigel Farage’s populist, anti-immigrant, far-right-wing UK First party. For those who think Pauline Hanson's increasingly more mainstream and better-organised party can not do the same thing to the Liberal Party here in Australia, think again.

The Old Order is dead and the Liberal Party may soon be, too. What comes in its place, who knows? But in the short term, the New Order is not likely to be as much fun as that band Albo apparently likes*.

This is a version of the Independent Australia subscribers only editorial sent to subscribers in the weekly IA newsletter. Subscribe to IA to receive editorial like this in your email inbox every week.

https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-death-of-the-coalition-and-a-requiem-for-the-old-order,20599

 

 

 

divorce....

 

From ultimatum to implosion: How the Coalition went its separate ways

By Clare Armstrong

 

Dissecting the implosion of the Coalition and figuring out what comes next has become a full-time vocation for the newly emancipated Liberals and Nationals.

"If anyone tells you they know what's going on, they're probably lying," says one Liberal still sifting through the ruins of the past week.

Dishonesty is one of the only things anyone can be sure of when talk turns to a leadership challenge inside any political party.

And rumours are running rife.

"Taylor's made a promise to Tim Wilson about getting shadow treasurer," one Liberal insists.

"McIntosh and Tehan are talking," says another.

"Hastie's ideal deputy is Duniam," spouts a Liberal.

"Taylor will be leader within three weeks," declares a Nationals member.

In the wake of the Coalition's second split in less than a year, scrutiny is falling hard on both Ley and Littleproud.

Most Liberals believe Ley's team prioritised short-term tactics over long-term strategy in relentlessly calling for the early return of parliament after the Bondi terror attack.

It's how the party found itself wedged by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who responded to Ley's push with an omnibus bill every member of the Coalition had at least one problem with.

But if Littleproud was hoping to walk away as the victor, Liberals argue he made a huge error.

In making the end of Ley's leadership a condition for a reunited Coalition, he has turned almost all the Liberals' anger and discontent upon himself.

A vote each way on hate laws

The Nationals broke ranks with the Liberals in the Senate after two days of escalating internal pressure and confused communication inside the Coalition.

On Sunday night, Ley had emerged from shadow cabinet believing a common approach had been settled on the gun control and hate law bills.

The former would be flatly opposed, while a series of amendments would be put to Labor to clarify and tighten the threshold around the regime to ban so-called hate organisations.

This negotiating strategy was reiterated at a leadership meeting on Monday morning, where sources said the Nationals gave their assent.

Senior Liberals have since gone on to privately accuse Littleproud of misrepresenting the nature of his conversations with them when speaking to his own party room.

Nationals members have said Littleproud instead indicated the decision was still up to them on a path forward.

Throughout Monday, Nationals MPs held marathon meetings while Liberal shadow ministers repeatedly fronted up to answer questions and brief them on the legislation.

Nationals senator Matt Canavan proved an influential voice among his own colleagues, continually highlighting concerns around definitions of "harm" in the bill and suggesting the laws could be used to target mainstream or religious groups.

Agreement was loosely reached with the Liberals that the Nationals would abstain in the lower house vote to buy time for further amendments.

But such was the confusion in the chamber that the Nationals ultimately voted three ways, with most abstaining, two MPs opposing and one voting in favour.

By the end of Question Time on Tuesday, Littleproud was of the view the Nationals would have to vote against the bill in the Senate.

Some Liberal senators realised sooner than others what was coming.

The Nationals moved a series of late amendments, many the Liberals claimed they had never seen before, which ultimately failed.

When the bill was finally voted on at about 10.30pm on Tuesday, the Liberals sat with Labor to back the legislation.

The Nationals, including frontbenchers Susan McDonald, Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell, crossed the floor and voted against.

The trio would later go on to acknowledge they had breached shadow cabinet solidarity.

But at the same time, the Nationals have disputed the Liberals' account of shadow cabinet discussions, arguing the "usual Coalition process" was not adhered to.

And in case those arguments didn't persuade Ley not to sack McDonald, Cadell and McKenzie, the Nationals had agreed all their frontbench would quit if their three colleagues were punished.

The ultimatum

Nationals leadership had first made Ley aware of the "one out, all out" pact on Tuesday before the vote in the Senate.

It was then reiterated in a letter Littleproud sent Ley on Wednesday morning as she was deliberating the fate of the three Nationals senators who had offered their resignations for breaching shadow cabinet solidarity.

One Liberal said it "beggars belief" the Nationals thought prior warning of their ultimatum "made it okay".

"How could [Ley] turn to the Liberal party room and say, 'Well the Nationals threatened me so I rolled over,'" they said.

The Nationals and Liberals have voted separately before, most notably in 2008 when the Labor government put forward a bill to deregulate the wheat market.

Then-National leader Warren Truss and Liberal leader Brendan Nelson had formally agreed to disagree and walked into the lower house together to make their opposing speeches.

A Liberal said the hate speech laws were "nothing like that".

"It worked in 2008 because we understood the Nationals had a long-held principled stance to defend," they said.

Some Nationals still hoped Ley would consider the hate laws an exceptional circumstance due to the rush of the bill.

But there was little chance they would be granted the leniency not afforded people like Andrew Hastie, who had forcefully opposed the initial hate speech bill, or Liberal moderates who were inclined to support the gun reforms.

Neither Littleproud or Ley spoke before she decided to accept the resignation of the three frontbench senators.

The Nationals leader had attempted to reach her before he departed Canberra on a plane, but Ley was in a meeting.

By the time she tried to call him, he was in the air.

And so on Wednesday afternoon, she released a statement accepting the resignations.

When Littleproud landed, he called a Nationals party room meeting for 6pm.

At 7.40pm, shadow assistant treasurer Pat Conaghan advised the media of his resignation — a sign his colleagues were about to follow suit.

The Coalition splits, again

That night Ley received offers of resignation from the remainder of the eight Nationals frontbenchers, including Littleproud.

In a brief statement released just after 9pm, Ley noted Littleproud's letter did not indicate the Nationals were leaving the Coalition.

She also rejected the resignations of his colleagues, saying the Liberal leadership group had determined they were "unnecessary".

Whatever glimmer of hope remained that a split might be avoided would soon be dashed.

At about 8am the next day, Littleproud and Ley spoke on the phone.

She asked him to reconsider any planned media appearances in recognition of the National Day of Mourning taking place.

Sources close to Ley say Littleproud was irate on the phone and effectively demanded she resign as leader.

Littleproud has denied shouting at Ley.

Half an hour after they spoke, Littleproud held a press conference in Brisbane where he confirmed the Nationals were leaving the Coalition for the second time in less than a year, and only the third time in history.

But he didn't stop there.

"We cannot be part of a shadow ministry under Sussan Ley," he said.

In making Ley's tenure a condition of any potential reunion between the two parties, Liberals say Littleproud has made his own position more tenuous.

"While it may have long been the case Sussan's leadership is doomed, no Liberal wants to be seen dancing to the tune of the Nationals," one Liberal MP said.

"If Littleproud's objective was to undermine Sussan, he's shown a lack of political judgement because it's probably shored up her position for now," another said.

The appetite for an immediate reunion is low among Liberals across multiple factions.

"No one has suggested to me we've got to find a way to get back," a member of the Liberal right said.

"A bit of time apart would be beneficial at this point," a moderate said.

"Littleproud had one nasty enemy in Barnaby [Joyce], now he's got the whole Liberal Party as enemies," one irate senior Liberal said.

Among the Nationals, opinions range from despair at the long road back to a Coalition, to confidence that a new Liberal leader would be mere weeks away from patching everything up.

On Friday, Ley said the door remained "open" to the Nationals returning to the Coalition.

She has not rushed to fill the now-vacant frontbench positions, taking a similar tack to the break-up last year when it was believed such a decision would only make it harder to reunite.

More than a dozen Liberals speaking privately have indicated they have no problem with the party taking a formal break from the Nationals, with many noting such a huge breakdown in trust would take time to work through.

Others appear energised at the prospect of the Liberal Party having time and space to properly define itself and connect with a constituency that has abandoned them in recent years, in part due to their association with the Nationals.

Rumblings of a spill

Except for a group of Liberals known to colleagues as the "always Sussan haters," no one is seriously angling for her immediate removal.

Chatter around the possibility of a spill against Ley as soon as next week has been dismissed as "premature" by many in the party.

For that to occur, two Liberal MPs would have to write to both Ley and the party's whip requesting a party room meeting.

From there a spill motion would be called and if carried there would be a call for leadership nominations.

The imminent return of Angus Taylor, who narrowly lost the leadership to Ley last year, from his European holiday sparked a flurry of media interest on Thursday.

That he was always scheduled to return to Australia ahead of parliament mattered little when, as one MP described it, there was a sense of "blood in the water".

Hastie, who last year quit the frontbench over a difference of opinion on the formulation of the party's immigration policy, is also being closely watched for signs he is gearing up to challenge.

Those close to the West Australian MP, who appeared more focused on rebutting criticism from his usually ardent online followers over his decision to back the amended hate laws, say he has the numbers.

"We've got the numbers for now, but who knows if they'll hold," one Liberal said.

Supporters of both Hastie and Taylor were hitting the phones on Friday to take the temperature of colleagues. 

Meanwhile, self-described leadership aspirant Melissa McIntosh chose the day of the Coalition split to post a series of photos with Littleproud to emphasise her "very good relationship" with the minor party.

She then appeared in the media on Friday to insist she was not making any phone calls to drum up support for a run at the top job and promising she would not call a spill against Ley.

"If you have to tell everyone what your intentions are all the time, you're probably not the person for the job," was the withering assessment of one Liberal MP.

Whether a challenge actually occurs when parliament resumes sitting in February remains an open question.

The endless stream of gossip and misdirection will only increase in intensity as the leadership contenders inch closer to pulling the trigger on a spill.

When the time comes, each will be far enough from the scene to avoid any accusations of having orchestrated bringing down the Liberals' first female leader.

Eyes on One Nation

Whether or not the split accelerates the demise of Ley's leadership, Liberals are united in their bewilderment at the Nationals' actions.

Most attribute the extreme reaction to the hate laws bill as a manifestation of fears about the rise of One Nation.

The minor party's surge in the polls has been "front of mind" for many colleagues, one Nationals member said.

Others have dismissed the "panic".

They said senators were exposed to a One Nation challenge, but in seat-by-seat contests the story was very different.

One said in the electorates where One Nation polled highest, the party would still have to harvest a "significant amount" of Labor preferences to win.

"That's a highly unlikely scenario," the National said.

But many Nationals still believe the Liberals under Ley are only making it harder for the Coalition to claw back authority among conservative voters.

Littleproud said on Friday the week's events were an "opportunity for some time apart".

Both he and Ley said their doors were "open," but if there's one thing Liberals and Nationals agree on, it is how unsalvageable the two leaders' relationship has become.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-24/how-the-coalition-split-played-out/106263654

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT — SINCE 2005.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.