Hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on December 26 that Israel recognizes Somaliland as an independent state, US President Donald Trump was asked whether the United States would follow suit, especially given the talk of a plan to relocate Gazans to the newly formed state. Trump replied, “That’s an important question.”

“SOMALILAND”: IS NETANYAHU EXPANDING THE SCOPE OF BLACKMAIL?

by Mohammed Kawas

On the 27th of this month [DECEMBER 2025], the day after an event Netanyahu wanted to accomplish hours before his meeting with the US President in Florida on the 29th, a remarkable statement, almost transcontinental in scope, was issued by Egypt, Qatar, Algeria, the Union of the Comoros, Djibouti, Gambia, Iran, Iraq, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, the Republic of Maldives, the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the Sultanate of Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Federal Republic of Somalia, Sudan, Turkey, Yemen, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, putting immediate and urgent points on the letters.

Suddenly, the region, which separated from “mother” Somalia in 1991 and was treated by the world as a marginal news item, became a major global concern and was knocking on Washington’s door.

The signatory states condemned this recognition in the strongest terms, considering it a blatant violation of international law and the UN Charter, which affirms “respect for the sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity of states.” These words also appeared aimed at thwarting any separatist tendencies in the region that might find a receptive environment in Israel.

The statement emphasized full support for the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia and rejected any measures that would undermine Somalia’s unity, territorial integrity, and sovereignty over all its territory. The signatory states categorically rejected any attempts to link this measure to any plans aimed at displacing the Palestinian people from their land, stressing that such plans are unacceptable in form and substance, as they constitute a flagrant violation of the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people.

This paragraph was crucial in the stance on the possibility (which Somaliland sources denied this year) of transferring Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to this country in exchange for Israeli recognition that might pave the way for greater recognition, perhaps even American recognition.

After this statement was issued, Trump was asked again about his position on the issue of recognizing “Somaliland.” He said that he had never heard of this region before and knew nothing about it, and he dealt with the news with ambiguous disdain.

It seemed the administration was aware of the region’s outrage at Netanyahu’s latest meddling, this time on the Red Sea coast, along an 850-kilometer stretch of coastline on the Gulf of Aden, at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and within the Horn of Africa. The White House occupant chose to position himself in a way that appeased the sentiments of US allies, some of whose leaders have close, personal ties with him. He opted to dismiss what he considered an “important question” and hide behind the pretext of “ignorance.”

If the dynamics of the Arab-African-Islamic statement represent a vital approach to addressing challenges that have become increasingly prominent and proliferating from the glare that Israel continues to draw from the “Al-Aqsa flood” incident, it reveals a mature awareness of the ABCs of international diplomacy that work to bring together opposites, freeze differences, and be aware of common risks at a critical moment.

The statement emphasized full support for the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia, and rejected any measures that would undermine Somalia’s unity, territorial integrity, and sovereignty over all its territory.

First strategic risk

This also reveals the involvement of high-level political circles in Riyadh and Cairo, working to devise responses that require sophisticated imaginations and unconventional approaches to thwart a project that threatens balances that have been cornerstones of regional security for decades. Given the convergence of interests between Somaliland, which seeks international recognition through Israel, and Israel, it is not inconceivable that Israeli interests might lead to the establishment of a military and intelligence facility to bolster Israel’s strategic depth in the Horn of Africa.

Israel is openly declaring its intention to expand to the Red Sea coast and gain access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, and to make its future military presence part of the regional security of the Red Sea states. Cairo had previously been aware of Ethiopia’s efforts to strike a deal with Somaliland that would grant it access to the sea through the port of Berbera.

Egypt at the time could not accept Ethiopia, with whom it had a growing dispute over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, having control over water resources that Egypt considered vital to its strategic security. In July 2024, Cairo took drastic measures, including activating a military agreement with Mogadishu that involved supplying Somalia with heavy weapons and deploying Egyptian troops within the country, suggesting a possible direct Egyptian military intervention.

Since his visit to Saudi Arabia last May, Donald Trump has heard that Israel has become the primary strategic threat to the region. He has also heard that Netanyahu represents a major obstacle to his aspirations for peace in the region, including his ambitions to expand the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu is aware of this perception, and he welcomes it, promoting it to his domestic political base as a unique advantage, a source of regional instability, and the only instrument for achieving security for Israel and reassurance for his voters across the political spectrum.

Netanyahu is adding a new bargaining chip to his table in his talks with Trump. Ultimately, the American position will determine the extent to which the countries signing the condemnation statement will go, and will guide the potential political and defensive measures that could protect the region from one of its seas or waterways falling within Israel’s sphere of influence and strategic maps. This transcontinental statement may represent a new front for transformations that could lead to the creation of a regional order with transcontinental reach.

What Trump considered a “good question” and later claimed ignorance of the “Somaliland” file may evolve into a different mood after his deliberations with Netanyahu, and he may favor recognizing the country that split from Somalia, as long as it adds an achievement to the Abraham Accords list and obtains in return a concession from Netanyahu on one of the hot files from Gaza to Iran, passing through Syria and Lebanon.

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2025/12/30/somaliland-is-netanyahu-expanding-the-scope-of-blackmail/

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