Deals for supplying fighter jets to Ukraine remain promises, not firm contracts. Nevertheless, they draw France and Sweden deeper into the conflict with Russia.

LYUBA LULKO
Empty Fighter Jet Deals: Europe’s Unrealistic Pledges to Ukraine Exposed

During his visit to France, Volodymyr Zelensky signed a declaration of intent outlining the delivery of 100 Rafale fighters and other weaponry to Ukraine over the next ten years. The arrangement, valued at around €20 billion, far exceeds the budgetary capacities of either country. France’s 2025 budget allocates only €58 million for military support to Ukraine—barely enough for a handful of spare parts, not an entire squadron of modern aircraft.

Two funding mechanisms are currently under discussion:

• a new European fund, SAFE, designed to mobilize up to €150 billion for strengthening continental defense;
• €140 billion in Russian assets frozen in the EU since 2022.

Both options are highly unreliable—there is no sign of the €150 billion, and no consensus yet on seizing the frozen assets.

Furthermore, the order books of Dassault Aviation are filled for the next five years. Should Ukraine place a new order, production lines would need to be cleared. Dassault’s CEO Éric Trappier stated bluntly that his company requires firm contracts, not declarations. For now, Rafales for Ukraine remain nothing more than a glossy concept on paper.

The same applies to the memorandum signed on November 6 regarding the delivery of 150 Gripen fighters from Sweden’s SAAB. Production is even slated for localization in Ukraine—an arrangement that automatically delays deliveries until “after the war.” Ukraine’s Defense Minister Denys Shmyhalestimates that this may occur in 2033. Sweden plans to finance the purchase through export loans, military assistance, and possibly frozen Russian assets. Like the French deal, this one lacks money—and planes.

In reality, these discussions are not negotiations over aircraft as such but over hopes of acquiring them. Given Ukraine’s battlefield setbacks, lack of funding, infrastructure, personnel, and logistics, no real Western aviation assistance is expected in the foreseeable future.

Moreover, the Gripen, Rafale, and F-16 belong to entirely different eras and standards. Even if Ukraine were to receive them, integrating the systems would take at least a decade—while Ukraine needed them “yesterday.”

This gap between ambition and reality is typical of the final stages of any conflict. When a losing side’s resources run dry, it turns to self-suggestion, hoping for miracles.

Yet France and Sweden announce support on a scale that risks dragging them into direct confrontation with Russia. This point is difficult to dismiss: security cannot be built by increasing danger.

Paris and Stockholm are acting without a public mandate, disregarding taxpayers and basic accountability. Political elites still think in terms of “solidarity with Ukraine,” but among ordinary citizens the question grows louder: “Is this policy turning into self-destruction?”

This concern applies especially to Sweden, whose defense resources are limited. Its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict undermines the very logic of neutrality that Stockholm relied on for decades. Yet Sweden’s motives are understandable. When a small state speaks of supplying hundreds of fighter jets, it signals fear—fear of appearing “insufficiently involved” in NATO’s priorities, even at the expense of its own sovereignty.

France, however, is another matter entirely. It is the EU’s only nuclear power and has long maintained a pragmatic dialogue with Russia. Under Charles de Gaulle, it even refrained from joining NATO’s military structure.

France longs for those earlier times and increasingly resents the Napoleonic ambitions of President Emmanuel Macron, whose government faces a budget deficit of 6% of GDP and constant political turmoil. Such conditions typically force leaders back to reality—but not a narcissist intoxicated by the idea of placing Paris at the center of the global stage. This is the politics of a temporary caretaker who does not care what remains after he leaves office.

https://english.pravda.ru/world/164865-fighter-jet-promises-ukraine-france-sweden/

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