Days away from the Federal Election, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has yet to offer the voting public any reason to elect him, writes Dr Alex Vickery-Howe.

SOME TIME AGO, when Peter Dutton was first made Leader of the Opposition in Australia, I expressed strong doubts. In 2022, the prospects of a Coalition leader swinging even further to the right, when the Teal Independents had demonstrated that centre-right voters believe in and care deeply about catastrophic climate change, seemed slim at best. 

Dutton rides MAGA wave as PM pitches promise
By Alex Vickery-Howe

My doubts were focused on Dutton’s refusal to build policy based on science and common sense, and his dogged quest to drag his party away from an electable centre and further to the right. I also called him ‘spooky’ and I won’t apologise for that.

I believe most human beings deserve the presumption of goodwill, but Dutton lost that for me way back in 2015 when he made a sickening quip about Pacific Island nations facing the brunt of climate disaster. That callous one-liner told all Australians that Dutton does believe in climate science; he just doesn’t empathise with those affected.

Friends would say I have a sick sense of humour. An acerbic sense of humour. But there’s a time and a place. Dutton didn’t choose either well. He claimed he “made a mistake” and I agree that he did. I would say his mistake was mocking those who stand to lose everything because self-proclaimed “climate sceptics”, which Dutton only pretends to be, refuse to comprehend the meaning of scientific consensus (a hint: it’s not a bunch of people in lab coats conspiring with NASA). 

Dutton, on the other hand, would probably say his mistake was making his unwise comment in front of a boom mic that even then-PM Scott Morrison was sharp enough to notice.

Dutton’s “joke” should’ve disqualified him from leading the Coalition. His recent national security lie should disqualify him from the top job. Fabricating nonsense stories about foreign leaders does not a worthy prime minister make. I remain less confident now, however, than I did when I wrote that earlier article.

In 2025, the global mood has swung. Americans call this the “vibe shift”.

It’s no state secret that the fortunes of President Donald Trump are connected to Dutton’s chances at the polls. Trump has proven to be a renewed force, nurturing class resentment to once again occupy the White House. In response, Dutton has leapt upon buzzwords like “woke” to set his agenda. Clive Palmer is doing the same thing, of course, but Palmer can barely read an autocue.

At the beginning of the year, mimicking Trump may have seemed like a sound campaign strategy. Much to Dutton’s consternation, Trump has burned through his political capital in record time.

The Trump tariffs are wildly unpopular and self-evidently idiotic. Car factories and manufacturing plants are not likely to reappear, as if by sorcery, given that any self-respecting CEO is going to shy away from setting up in the U.S. under such an unpredictable and volatile administration. Trump proved the precariousness of investing in America’s future when he backflipped on his own policy.

Even if the magic emanates from those tiny hands and domestic manufacturing does return, do we really believe that production lines in 2025 are going to be humancentric? Have we learned nothing from Amazon?

Trump’s political capital was further incinerated when he kidnapped an innocent man and shipped him to El Salvador. Not even the bootlickers with fork tongues could support that level of cruelty. Not even Joe Rogan.

I hope we still live in a world where that kind of brutalism and injustice is met with universal outrage, contempt and a desire to fight back and reclaim America’s sanity, if not her soul. I hope I see the day when Kilmar Ábrego García sues the American Government for its arrogance, its spite and its failure.

For Dutton, the sudden rise and fall of Trump in the global consciousness has necessitated a dance. First, he was all in on Team Trump. More recently, he has changed his tune. Will Dutton make sweeping cuts to the public service as Trump did? Or has that policy been scrapped? Will he force people back to work offline? Or was that another Dutton “mistake”? It’s hard to tell what you stand for when you’re too busy tapping your toes.

Dutton has, in fact, mimicked Trump accidentally by cosying up one minute and then retreating the next, with a shrug and an “I’ve never met the man” pivot that Trump himself has perfected from countless disastrous associations over the years.

It was with Trumpian baggage attached that Dutton approached the ABC debate against Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on 16 April. Poor Dutton spent the duration sweating, twisting and obfuscating. He didn’t have a clear platform. He didn’t have a message for the Australian people. He’s not even spooky anymore; he’s a little tragic.

On climate change, he deferred to science, but stopped short of acknowledging extreme weather events in his native Queensland. That won’t please the so-called “sceptics” and it won’t inspire anyone who can see what’s plainly happening. It was a non-position.

On the U.S. tariffs, he puffed and blustered about his ability to deliver exemptions, then conceded that he didn’t know Trump. How exactly is he going to negotiate more successfully than any other world leader when he has no idea what he’s walking into? So much hot air. So much flaccid machismo. Much like Trump with Putin.

On his lies about Indonesia, he apologised meekly, after refusing to do so in the lead up to the debate. 

Doing so gave Albanese a free kick: 

“You shouldn’t try to use international relations to support domestic politics.”

Touché, Albo.

But where Dutton was at his most desperate – and this may be the lie that defines the Election – was when he linked the housing crisis with international students. This is one of the dumbest things a public figure in Australia has ever said. He started this prior to the debate and doubled down on the night. It’s nonsense and it needs to be called out.

Conservatives in opposition claim to be allies of the working people. All that “I’ll fight for you” rhetoric vanishes when they seize power. We’ve seen that in the chaos and incompetence of the contemporary United States. There is no reason to trust Dutton on this issue. The Coalition has never cared about struggling families. That’s the first reality “cheque” (don't try to bank on it).

The second reality check is that while foreign ownership should be addressed, the housing crisis in Australia has nothing whatsoever to do with international students or with immigration in general. It’s an easy lie that may well be attractive to people who enjoy lazy solutions, but it doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. Dutton is borrowing from the old John Howard playbook of demonising minorities to score cheap points.

A more credible argument, mounted by the Prime Minister, is that we have a housing supply issue. This is a footnote to the story.

Now let’s talk about the actual story...

Negative gearing: the sword that Bill Shorten died on. It’s clear that neither major party is brave enough to pick up that sword again, but a system that fundamentally rewards investors and deprives younger Australians of the chance to enter the market is a system built on generational inequality. 

That system won’t play well this election, as emerging generations now outnumber Boomer voters. The Australian Greens are touching this policy and that may make life interesting for Albanese if Labor is forced to enter into a partnership to form a minority government.

My hunch is that Dutton’s broad attacks against immigrants won’t land with the Australian electorate. It’s a stale and mean-spirited argument; a Coalition cliché that younger people are statistically less likely to adopt.

Generational warfare, on the other hand, will play very well for the Greens. Unlike the United States, where economic hardship and class divisions can be diverted into MAGA racism, Australia is a nation where the fault lines between Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z carry much stronger cultural weight. Deep down, young people know their elders are hogging the Australian dream.

My money says the housing crisis will drive votes. Regardless, this election does represent a real choice.

On the Labor ticket: Medicare. Paid parental leave. Robust education – something Australia desperately needs – the science of climate change and renewable energy.

On the Coalition ticket: Scientific illiteracy. Denial of reality. Whinging. Blame. A nuclear power station Australia cannot afford. Diet Trump posturing with no substance behind it.

I’m not sure the debate told us anything new. The likelihood of Australia waking up to a new PM will largely come down to the impact of the “vibe shift” and whether Trump has soured the ascendency of the far-right as badly, and as quickly, as pollsters indicate. My hopes are tempered by an awareness that we all live in bubbles and we all have dangerous blind spots.

For Australia, my hope is that we see through the populism, the scapegoating and the relentless negativity of the Coalition and move back to big, brave policy that actually helps people on the ground. It’s time to stop bickering at the edges and actually tackle the major issues facing Australians.

At a time when people in power are listening to Iron Man wannabe billionaires, attempting to drive people apart and creating wedges instead of putting people first, can someone please explain why every world leader is seemingly obsessed with golf?

https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/dutton-rides-maga-wave-as-pm-pitches-promise,19684

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