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rock solid panic about Australian defence preparedness....

The petulant demand of tribute to the Trump empire and his transactional ethos surely now challenges the agreed balance sheet between Australia and America.

Comments last week by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on vital defence issues made clear how confused — and indeed downright misinformed — our highest political and defence force leaders are.

 

Albanese [AND DUTTON] is as misinformed on the US alliance as live-fire drills    By James Curran

 

Albanese, asked whether ANZUS was “rock solid”, simply said “yes”. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton did not publicly object to this assessment of the treaty.

In fact, the prime minister’s statement is not only unprecedented, it is also wrong.

Behold the current mood in the White House as Albanese expressed certainty on ANZUS. Trump asked late last week “what’s that?” when AUKUS was raised during the visit to Washington by UK prime minister Keir Starmer.

Then Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy copped a right drubbing in the White House, again underlining that the US primarily wants an end to the war, not the doling out of more security guarantees.

There are no guarantees in the ANZUS agreement and even the most casual student of the treaty knows it. Surely, it must have occurred to Albanese that ANZUS is a commitment to consult only – lacking the formal, explicit commitment to military action in NATO’s article 5.

Australia had been refused assistance under the terms of ANZUS by Bill Clinton in the late 1990s over Timor-Leste. Before that, by John F. Kennedy during the Confrontation episode with Indonesia in the 1960s.

“Such worry and panic about Australian defence preparedness has probably not been seen since the 1930s when Imperial Japan set out.”

In the case of Timor-Leste, it is true that US diplomatic and intelligence heft was critical to the mission’s success. But then-prime minister John Howard and foreign minister Alexander Downer believed Australia’s record of steadfast loyalty to the US in past wars virtually guaranteed an on-the-ground US military commitment. It didn’t.

The scrambled government messaging continued in the debacle over the “flotilla” of Chinese navy vessels and their live-fire drills.

The prime minister said on 22 February that “China did comply with international law and that’s important”. Defence Minister Richard Marles was not clear whether the live firing drills constituted a “real incident” or not, whatever that means.

It emerged that there was nothing commonplace about this event. Defence chiefs didn’t know where the ships were, and didn’t know that the Chinese navy planned live-firing. They didn’t warn civil airliners in timely fashion when they did, and either didn’t give the correct information to the prime minister, or he misunderstood it and deliberately or otherwise misled the public about his knowledge.

It was a shambles.

The Opposition understandably took advantage. But Dutton was defence minister from 2021 to 2022 and deeply involved in intelligence matters in his previous home affairs portfolio. In that period, China’s push into the Pacific fell beneath the Coalition’s radar.

Still unanswered is why Defence and its Five Eyes partners were not tracking the ships from the moment they left Chinese waters. That’s what Five Eyes is supposed to do, it is generally assumed.

It all underlines once more the lack of Australian seriousness on defence policy by past and present governments. But it also means a new reality for Australian strategic planners – we are dealing with two careless superpowers who are each only concerned with their own interests.

It raises the question with this columnist about the real and historical transactional relationship we have now and have always had with both Washington and Beijing.

The level of trust with China was high when Bob Hawke had the critical conversations with Chinese leaders in 1986, which established the iron ore bonanza for both countries. It was again in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Indeed, “transactional” is one way, though inadequate, of describing Chinese coercion in the period from 2017 to 2022 when, in response to Australian public statements and policies, Beijing weaponised trade against Canberra. In turn, Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board decisions over Chinese investment are in their way, transactional.

A similar approach is now being imposed on Canberra and other allies by Trump, where the emphasis is to show just what Australia gives the US. It is substantial, and not restricted to hefty payments into the US submarine industrial base.

For alongside the still-pivotal Pine Gap intelligence facility in Alice Springs, it also includes a US Marine base in Darwin, B-52 bomber-capable airfields across northern Australia and a soon-to-be built submarine base south of Perth. Intimidation of China is the declared task.

This is Australia’s continental gift to Washington.

In return, it has to be acknowledged that the US has, since the Pacific war and by virtue of the alliance, provided a benign investment climate that has been critical to Australia’s development. This is no small gesture.

The lunatic tariff howling in Washington and the petulant demand of tribute to Trump’s empire and his transactional ethos surely now tests that agreed balance sheet between Australia and America. Such worry and panic about Australian defence preparedness has probably not been seen since the 1930s when Imperial Japan set out on its fateful course of military expression in East Asia.

The search is on now, as then, to find the scapegoats responsible. Instead, what is needed is a serious budgetary and strategic investigation by a genuine policy committee of departmental chiefs to examine what Australia really needs to defend itself.

 

Republished from AFR, March 2, 2025

https://johnmenadue.com/albanese-is-as-misinformed-on-the-us-alliance-as-live-fire-drills/

 

forgetful don.....

Donald Trump was asked about AUKUS and replied… “What does that mean?” Meanwhile, Australia is spending $368 billion on submarines we won’t see for decades.

Forget AUKUS, Trump did | Scam of the Week

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wD76ESIKZM

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

 

 

lost balls....

The AUKUS chickens are coming home to roost, already    By John Menadue  

In its response to AUKUS with its objective of militarily confronting China in the South China Sea, we should not be surprised by Chinese naval vessels sailing around Australia to pick up some intelligence or at least showing us their growing naval power.

For China, it would be a good training experience in new waters. A look-see. And it would send a message that as we have chosen to become a US proxy or vassal, the seas ahead could be very choppy for us.

China hawks are unable to understand the circumstances of the Chinese circumnavigation of Australia. These very modern Chinese vessels are a response to the risks and provocation of AUKUS.

Our media keeps telling us of the importance of AUKUS for the defence of Australia. But AUKUS is not for the defence of Australia; it is to join with the US to confront the Chinese on their coast in the South China Sea.

The Chinese are not just concerned about our purchase of old and expensive nuclear submarines. They would also be interested in the basing and construction of some of those submarines around our coast and in our maritime zone. So why not come and fly the flag and have a look?

With AUKUS and our Force Posture Agreement with the United States, China would be keen to see what we’re doing on behalf of the US, our erratic ally that is almost always at war, subverting other governments that disobey or invading if it sees fit as in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

We get into US wars time and time again. It is time we asserted our own nationhood and independence and stood back. We should not poke our nose into the Chinese domestic dispute over Taiwan.

We are also seeing more clearly in the last few weeks how unstable the US has become.

A recent Australia Institute Poll of 2009 Australians told us that most Australians prefer a more independent foreign policy than prefer a closer alliance with the US (44% v 35%). The poll also revealed that more Australians feel Donald Trump is a greater threat to peace than either Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping.

Even if the Chinese vessels are not picking up a great deal of intelligence, they are certainly giving us a message that they understand what AUKUS is about and also what Australia acting on behalf of the US means. We are being given a taste of what will be in store for us in the future as we forfeit our sovereignty to the United States, the most dangerous and aggressive country in the world. Empires in decline are often very dangerous.

Consider the route of the Chinese vessels, first down our East Coast where we are likely to base our own submarines, if we finally get them. A chance for Beijing to learn more about our East Coast.

Then on to the Great Australian Bight and to have a look off the coast of South Australia and Adelaide where Australia’s SSN — AUKUS submarines — will be built or may be built.

And then onto the Indian Ocean and Perth where we are building a nuclear submarine base South of Perth for the US, and maybe for the UK.

Then up the West Australian coast to undertake some reconnaissance of the Cocos and Keeling Islands where there is a major upgrading of the airfield for Australian and US aircraft in support of  US operations along the coast of China.

After the Obama/Gillard/Beazley stitch-up of Marines in Darwin, the US expressed a keen interest in Cocos and Keeling. Cocos would support the giant US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

It is inland in the Northern Territory, but the Chinese vessels would also be interested in the build-up of airstrip and other facilities  at Tindal to support the basing of six US B-52 strategic bombers that are nuclear-capable and can easily strike China.

Then on to Darwin to show the Chinese flag and its interest in the US Marines based there. This base, of course, was initially to be for the rotation of Marines who have now become a permanent feature.

China is deliberately showing the flag around our coast in a response to AUKUS. We will pay a price for acting as America’s proxy in our region. That cost will not be just financial. Our strategic costs and risks will also keep escalating.

The Chinese have taken the unprecedented step of sailing around Australia. We must live with the territory and risks AUKUS has created for us. We had better get used to it because there’s going to be a lot more of this as we fuse the Australian and US Navies.

As former foreign minister Gareth Evans said recently, “Australia’s no-holds barred embrace of AUKUS is more likely than not to prove one of the worst defence and foreign policy decisions our country has made, not only putting at profound risk our sovereignty and independence, but generating more risk than reward for the very national security it promises to protect”.

The navigation of Chinese naval vessels is just the beginning.

China has no interest in attacking Australia or even the United States, but it is concerned if we involve ourselves in supporting the US Empire and hegemony in the South China Sea.

We are an active supporter of the US in the South China Sea right now. Our Poseidon P-8A reconnaissance aircraft based in South Australia, and operating through Butterworth, Singapore, Manila and Darwin, operate along the Chinese coast, dropping sonar buoys to detect Chinese submarines in the South China Sea. Our media — Andrew Greene, Peter Hartcher, Justin Bassi  and many others— would have a fit if Chinese aircraft were dropping sonar buoys off our coast.

Having learnt from two centuries of colonial domination and humiliation, China is determined that it must have a robust military for self defence.

Our reckless anti-China hawks see these Chinese vessels in isolation and as a sign of more Chinese aggression, but fail to understand the context. China is subtly responding to AUKUS. We seem unable to get the message. And many of our China “experts” in the media don’t want to get the message.

China has no interest in attacking us. It has enough problems domestically with 1.4 b people and 14 land borders. But Americans, looking through their rear vision mirrors at a rapidly growing China, expect that Beijing will act as aggressively as it itself has for over two centuries. Chinese history suggests otherwise.

We have chosen to be a proxy for the US in our region against China, our major trading partner. What could be more unsustainable than acting as a proxy for the Americans in its determination to cripple or even attack China?

The next Chinese step might be submarines operating around our coast. We are already operating off China’s coast with our Poseidon aircraft dropping sonar buoys. So why wouldn’t China want to do the same on our coast?

AUKUS has set in motion an escalation that we will regret.

The Chinese vessels that have created such a media frenzy are just the beginning. With AUKUS, we will reap what we have sown.

P&I recommends: Australia lost its balls to the Chinese Navy

 

https://johnmenadue.com/the-aukus-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-already/

 

IMAGINE THAT TOMORROW CHINA DECIDES NOT TO BUY OUR ORES AND COAL? WE'D BE SUNK LIKE A BADLY RIVETED TITANIC !

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

DUTTON'S HYPOCRISY ISN’T ONE OF THE SINS OF THE TEN COMMANDMENTS.