Sunday 22nd of December 2024
Home » Blogs » Gus Leonisky's blog

as yuckraine fights to become dependent on the west, the russian donbass fights to become russian.....

Ukraine’s self-proclaimed “fight for independence” has ironically only led to deeper dependency on financial, military, and energy support from Western countries, raising concerns about the sustainability of this arrangement.

Recently, I came to a conclusion, and now I always repeat it, that the Ukrainian government declared a struggle for independence, but in fact, it turned out to be a struggle for dependence, only from another country. Moreover, this dependence will be several times stronger than the one which they claim to be fighting against, and now it is a struggle to keep the money and arms flowing for financial gain and political survival.

 

Ukraine and Europe: Caught in “Treacherous Cycle” of Dependency Amid Energy and Economic Struggles

BY 

Henry Kamens

 

The West cannot be trusted in deals

Nonetheless, I am confident that all those at the top levels of government and in the military in Ukraine have their escapes planned, with money in foreign bank accounts, or hidden safely away. They have likely done a better job of it than did many Nazis when they finally realized they were fighting for a lost cause and a madman. It is being reported that Zelensky is looking for some of the best places to seek asylum...

I think that’s what Zelensky and the elites he represents are doing right now, they’re looking for a way out, but they have to distribute the 7 billion Biden promised them. I think he’ll end up blaming it on the allies and say:

“I’m ready to go on to achieve victory, but the allies betrayed us!”

The only thing I can’t understand, and can’t believe, is how prone the ordinary people are to being fooled, and how susceptible they are to propaganda. I have seen it in the US, Russia, and the UK, and now the same thing is happening in Ukraine.

The only difference, of course, is that the RF justifies its slogans and takes them to their logical conclusion, while in Ukraine, they just change the slogans when facts render the old ones untenable, and the people continue to eat it up. This is shocking to me. And even the most “odious lies” are perceived as fact, and then everyone just forgets about it.

Feeding Frenzy is over!

The US has a good reason now to cut back on Ukraine, and shift attention, as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan before. The reason is not only in terms of not being able to answer the hard question of where all the money and weapons went, but in terms of not wanting to be embarrassed over the performance, or rather lack thereof, of its high-tech military hardware.

Already they are starting to write articles that US weapons are not good enough to take on Russia’s military hardware, notwithstanding the raising nuclear threat, something that even Pentagon officials are admitting. This is especially relevant in light of the recent strike by the new IRBM system “Oreshnik” on the Vymash missile plant in Dnipro.

NATO and the private sector are being innovative in finding ways to support some fledgling and start up defense industries, such as drone production, as the public purse is getting tight, and voters don’t have the patience to pay more for lessor results.

To make matters worse, winter is on the horizon, and it might not be a mild one as before, when somehow Europe and Ukraine were able to get by without freezing out. The Sunday Times is already warning of a “fatal freeze” in Ukraine, while western Europeans may face the choice between food to eat and heating their homes as bills skyrocket.

European Energy Insecurity!

Already, Ukraine and much of Europe is dependent on foreign energy supplies, and it will only grow more acute as the West tries to keep Ukraine in the fight. But who is going to have to pay for higher prices and for Ukraine as well?

Already Europeans are facing the harsh reality, and perhaps a harsh winter. The chaos in Ukraine has contributed to about a 45% surge gas prices this year. While levels are still far below 2022 records, they are high enough to risk deepening a cost-of-living crisis for households and intensifying competitive pressure on strapped manufacturers.

Western Europe already receives Norwegian gas, some Dutch gas but that is shutting down, some Azeri gas, and LNG (including from the US and Russia).   If there is a peace agreement, it will be interesting to see if the EU starts up imports from Russia again.

So higher prices for energy means that Ukraine too will have to depend more and more on the West, and not only for money to cover budget expenses but higher prices, direct transmission to keep the lights on and home heated.

The cost of supporting Ukraine goes in tandem with a worsening of the cost-of-living crisis in the EU, and this is already squeezing manufacturers, and one only has to look at the plight of VW, with layoffs and three plants closing. This is just the thin edge of the wedge, as Bosch, a major car parts manufacturer, has also just announced at least 5000 layoffs Europe wide, with 3800 of these in Germany.

Kicking Russian fossil fuels

It is proving difficult for Europe to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels, and the situation could worsen, with gas supplies potentially cut off entirely next year. The expiration of a gas transit deal between Ukraine and Russia in early 2024, combined with sanctions on Gazprombank, may disrupt remaining Russian gas flows to Europe.

Combined with idiotic actions, like that undertaken by Austria, which has resulted in Russia cutting supplies to the country after an arbitration case at the International Chamber of Commerce ignored the fact that Gazprom’s failure to deliver expected volumes was due to the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline, and Poland restricting flows “in support of Ukraine”, surely a case of Force Majeure if ever there was one.

Rising gas prices and competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will likely only exacerbate the energy crisis all the more.  Europe’s ability to refill gas storage for future winters, with Germany and other energy-intensive economies being the most vulnerable.

Now we can understand why German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is being more diplomatic, unlike the US, UK and France, who are taking a more hardline position, perhaps in terms of their relative energy independence when compared to Germany.

Muddied by rumors

The situation is now further muddied by rumors that a US investorhas asked the Federal government to let him buy the unused Nordstream 2 pipeline, which would give the US a stranglehold on future gas supplies.

Scholz now maintains that his government’s refusal to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles to hit Russian territory was correct. Of course, it was, as Germany knows what winter may have in store for it, and it is looking to the US and other countries in its neighborhood for a reasonably priced cheap and a continuous supply of gas.

Not only for Germany is an economic lesson in order, as for the Biden administration, America was willing to help Ukraine pay to keep its freedom, as it was told that Ukraine was winning, and only needed more (and more and more) weapons and money, and the task would be complete.

The incoming Trump administration has indicated that this will likely not continue, and that they believe it is well past time to cut America’s financial losses and make use of that money where it is more needed, at home in the USA.  Let other countries, if they can put their money where their mouths are, pick up the slack, if their voters will allow it.

Other nations, if they can afford it, and the political fallout, may continue helping Ukraine in its fight, but without America’s military and economic power, this coalition will struggle to hold together against Russia’s determination and military industrial complex, one that does not have to worry about the price of domestic gas.

German Defense Minister Pistorius has acknowledged the scale of the problem, recently admitting that the Russians produce more military equipment and ammunition in three months, than the entire EU does in a year.

Providing military equipment and financial aid to Ukraine without tangible results is not proving sustainable, and just the opposite.  Clearly some countries in Western Europe are starting to wake up to this fact. However, the interconnected struggles of dependency, economic strain, and political fragility, paint a grim picture of Ukraine’s and Europe’s ability to sustain their current path in their proxy war with Russia.

Why should the winner come to the table with the loser and its loser friends?

The West cannot be trusted in deals!

As for a final thought, for Europe, and other birds-of-feather in this ordeal, they should put their money where their mouths are – short and simple.  It is interesting to note, for the sake of balance, that some Western media outlets claim that “aiding Ukraine has been cheap, and caving to Russia would be far more costly.”

I beg to differ

 

Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus

https://journal-neo.su/2024/12/03/ukraine-and-europe-caught-in-treacherous-cycle-of-dependency-amid-energy-and-economic-struggles/

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

PLEASE DO NOT BLAME RUSSIA IF WW3 STARTS. BLAME YOURSELF.

 

 

 

a timeline....

US Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia

     by 

 

As further ATACMS strikes on Russia seem to have stopped this timeline is of interest.

November 18:

U.S. allows Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia:

The reversal of policy, nearly 1,000 days since Russia started its full-scale invasion on Ukraine, comes largely in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops to supplement its forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision told Reuters.

[Note: There is no evidence that any North Korean troops were deployed by Russia anywhere near Ukraine.]

November 19 and November 20/21:

Ukraine hits an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, far from any relevant frontline, as well as military facilities in Russia’s Kursk oblast:

On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
…
The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defence battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff.

November 21:

Russia fires a new missile with hypersonic kinetic warheads at a military industrial complex in Dnipro:

In response to the deployment of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike on a facility within Ukraine’s defence industrial complex. In field conditions, we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems – in this case, carrying a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile that our engineers named Oreshnik. The tests were successful, achieving the intended objective of the launch. In the city of Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine, one of the largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union era, which continues to produce missiles and other armaments, was hit.

November 23 and 25:

Ukraine continues with ATACMS strikes against targets within Russia:

On 23 November, the enemy fired five U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at a position of an S-400 anti-aircraft battalion near Lotarevka (37 kilometres north-west of Kursk).

During a surface-to-air battle, a Pantsir AAMG crew protecting the battalion destroyed three ATACMS missiles, and two hit their intended targets.

As a result of the strike, a radar was damaged. There are casualties among personnel.

On 25 November, the Kiev regime delivered one more strike by eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (near Khalino). Seven missile were shot down by S-400 SAM and Pantsir AAMG systems, one missile hit the assigned target. Two servicemen were lightly wounded and infrastructure objects sustained minor damage by missile debris.

After investigating the attacked sites it was confirmed that the AFU delivered strikes by U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles.

November 27:

The Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov has a phone call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:

Gen. Valery Gerasimov initiated last Wednesday’s call with Gen. CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to provide him with that warning and to also discuss Ukraine and how to avoid miscalculation between the U.S. and Russia about that ongoing conflict.

November 28:

Putin announces the response to the November 23/25 strikes:

Last night, we conducted a comprehensive strike utilising 90 missiles of these classes and 100 drones, successfully hitting 17 targets. These included military installations, defence industry sites, and their support infrastructure. I want to emphasise once again that these strikes were carried out in response to the continued attacks on Russian territory using American ATACMS missiles. As I have repeatedly stated, such actions will always elicit a response.

It seems that Russia’s message has finally reached its recipient.

December 5/6:

In another strike on Russia Ukraine has used fix wing UAVs but no ATACMS:

Last night, the Russian Armed Forces have foiled another attempt by the Kiev regime to launch a terrorist attack using a fixed-wing UAV against the facilities in the Russian Federation.

Thirty three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were intercepted by alerted air defence systems over Kursk region. Fourteen UAVs were shot down over the territory of Voronezh region, eleven over Kursk region, seven over Belgorod region, and one over the Crimean Republic.

Moreover, the naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed two uncrewed surface vehicles moving to the Crimean peninsula in waters of the Black Sea.

Since Gerasimov’s phone call (and Putin’s speech) there have been NO reports of any further ATACMS (or Storm Shadow) strikes on Russia!

During his announcement of the latest strikes Putin also described the effects of the hypersonic missile strike:

The system deploys dozens of homing warheads that strike the target at a velocity of Mach 10, equivalent to approximately three kilometres per second. The temperature of the impact elements reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius – nearing the surface temperature of the sun, which is around 5,500–6,000 degrees.

Consequently, everything within the explosion’s epicentre is reduced to fractions, elementary particles, essentially turning to dust. The missile is capable of destroying even heavily fortified structures and those located at significant depths.

During several interviews in recent days MIT Prof. Ted Postol disagreed (vid) with Putin’s claim. Postol describes the Oreshnik impacts as shallow surface explosions with the force of about 1.5 times the weight equivalent in TNT explosives. With an estimated warhead weight of 100 kilogram the impact of each of the Oreshnik’s 36 warheads would be no bigger than a regular small bomb. This would make them mostly useless against anything but large area surface targets.

I am doubtful that Postol got this right:

  • Putin is usually extraordinary well informed and not in the habit of making false claims. If he states that Oreshnik warheads have deep penetration capabilities then they are likely to have these.
  • It would make little to no sense for the Russian’s to demonstrate the Oreshnik on hardened targets, as the bunkers of the Yuzhmash machine plant are, if it does not have significant effects on these. It would be a bluff that could and would be immediately called by the Pentagon specialist inspecting the localities and observing the effects.
  • The U.S. is taking the strike seriously. It has reacted by stopping support for further Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on Russia.

Weapon experts like Postol have little experience with hypersonic projectiles which impact at 10 times the speed of sound. I believe that his assessment is sincere. He also applies the necessary caveats. But I doubt that he, like most other experts, has sufficient experience with the effects of dart like hypersonic projectiles to further back up his claims.

I thus recommend, if only out of abundance of caution, to assume that the Russian claims of bunker busting capabilities of Oreshnik missiles are very real.

 from Moon of Alabama.

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

PLEASE DO NOT BLAME RUSSIA IF WW3 STARTS. BLAME YOURSELF.