Record-breaking cold enveloped nearly the entire eastern half of the nation Thursday as part of a polar vortex caused temperatures to plummet 30 to 40 degrees below average from the Mississippi River to the East Coast.

Daily record lows were set Thursday morning in cities such as Chicago (minus 8 degrees), Louisville (minus 3 degrees), Greensboro, N.C. (10 degrees), Nashville (5 degrees), Cincinnati (minus 6 degrees) and Springfield, Mo. (minus 5 degrees), according to the National Weather Service.

see more:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/02/19/record-cold/23669363/

In just three weeks, between Jan. 27 and Feb. 15, we have had four epic blizzards — seven feet of precipitation over three weeks — which crushed roofs, burst gutters, destroyed roads and sidewalks, closed schools and businesses, shut down highways, crippled public transit and trapped people in their homes. The infamous Blizzard of 1978 brought around 27 inches of snow and shut down the region for a week. In less than a month, we’ve seen more than three times as much snow. The temperature has hovered between 5 and 25 degrees, so the snow and ice haven’t melted.

read more:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/opinion/bostons-winter-from-hell.html?

It has been my observation that too many people "accept" that there is "climate change". But one cannot not "blame" them. They cannot avoid seeing cyclones "like never before", humidity like "never before", cold records in the US (without noting the warmer temperatures on the western half of the US) and other climate change phenomenon. They accept that "climate is changing", but they reject the notion of "global warming"... Many will blame the "change of climate" on volcanoes, turtle farts or the sun behaving badly but few of these second-wave "sceptics" are prepared to take on board that "most" (99 per cent) of the inductor of climate change is human released CO2 into the atmosphere. 

Contrarily to what these ignoramuses think, volcanoes actually "change the climate" towards colder. Volcanoes output do little towards increasing CO2. Volcanic activity sends far more "cooling" particles than warming gases. But then most people want to read about "not being responsible" for the warming. They read newspapers like Murdoch's Telegraph and The Australian, where the idea of global warming is "still not settled". Meanwhile 98 per cent of the scientists working on the subject know that the theory of "global warming" is about 100 per cent correct (and due to human activity releasing CO2 into the atmosphere), but because of political and economical repercussion might admit to "99 per cent".

It's high time that the MMMM (mediocre mass media di mierda) became a bit more forceful in its understanding of the issue and start to heavily dump the denialists who, from my humble scientific observations, have not a leg to stand on...

Tony Abbott is an idiot. 

During the second half of the 21st century, the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains will face persistent drought worse than anything seen in times ancient or modern, with the drying conditions “driven primarily” by human-induced global warming, a new study predicts.

The research says the drying would surpass in severity any of the decades-long “megadroughts” that occurred much earlier during the past 1,000 years—one of which has been tied by some researchers to the decline of the Anasazi or Ancient Pueblo Peoples in the Colorado Plateau in the late 13th century. Many studies have already predicted that the Southwest could dry due to global warming, but this is the first to say that such drying could exceed the worst conditions of the distant past. The impacts today would be devastating, given the region’s much larger population and use of resources.

“We are the first to do this kind of quantitative comparison between the projections and the distant past, and the story is a bit bleak,” said Jason E. Smerdon, a co-author and climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. “Even when selecting for the worst megadrought-dominated period, the 21st century projections make the megadroughts seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden.”  

read more: http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/articles/view/3232

Meanwhile:

By Saturday Boston was just a few inches shy of its all-time record for snowfall, just over 107in. But that was for the entire winter season of 1994-95; this year has seen almost 100in of snow fall since 23 January.

In Boston Harbor, the Eleanor and the Beaver, the lovingly restored ships from the days of the infamous tea party, are encased in ice. Pan-pipe music still wafts from the Boston Tea Party museum, though right now you would be able to dump tea on to the harbour, not in it. Call it a Boston Ice-Tea Party.

The wind cuts straight to the bone. Metre-long icicles hang from car-park eaves. Snow is piled above head-height along every road.

The city is exhausted – but there is also a feeling that if it’s going to be this bad, the record might as well be broken. Some Bostonians are already finding novel ways to enjoy the snowfall.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/feb/21/boston-snow-ice-slam-eastern-us...

Thus climate is changing... but not towards an ice age as previously calculated by scientists till the late 1940s. Since Arrhenius did his calculation in the late 1890s about the influence of CO2 on the periodicity of Ice Ages and warmer climes, science has come a long way with more study, more analysis of boring facts and figures and more precision about the process. As climate change — aka global warming — comes in, weather predictions become more iffy... The present changing factor is EXTRA CO2 added into the previous "natural equation" of carbon on the surface of this planet, which has oscillated between 180 (ice ages) and 300 ppm (warmer climes). It has been estimated that the burning of fossil fuels (carbon removed from the surface equation, by various geological and climatic changes of the planet) has added between 150 to 200 ppm CO2 back into the surface equation — therefore adding warming energy into the mix. 

Going by the study of previous ice ages and warmer climes, using ice cores and other "markers", science can estimate with a degree of precision (depending on airborne particles and other factors including low sun activity) that temperature will rise for many years to come (possibly 5000 years) under the current load of CO2 in the atmosphere. The difficulty in estimation is to evaluate the balance between cloudy water vapour and clear water vapour which is strongly influenced by CO2 and higher temperatures —under climatic conditions. Presently, it is not unscientific to "predict" a rise of 4 to 6 degrees C by 2100 and more than 10 degrees C by 2150...

I know I keep repeating myself but this is the reality as it staring at us... Whether we do something about it or not is a political/economic decision which — according to my own estimate — will be made for by the planet in 2032. Some serious scientific studies places this at 2038/2045, but the MASSIVE climate shift is likely to happen before 2050... 

And by the way, this is the chart that shows the ocean surface temperature off the coast of New South Wales. On a day like today, this heat enforces a large mass of "evaporation" leading to noreasterly winds in Sydney being loaded with high humidity, clouds and heat.

http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/2014-hottest-year-on-record-globally

More than a dozen states (mostly coal-dependent states in the South, which could be hit hardest by the rules) are already raising hell in what's shaping up to be the environmental version of state-level challenges to Obamacare. As our friend David Roberts at Grist highlighted this week, a number of states have joined a lawsuit challenging the EPA's legal authority to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. And across the country in those states and others, bills are cropping up that could make it hard or impossible for individual states to meet their mandated carbon targets. The idea is effectively to stonewall the EPA and hope the regulations get killed in court.

The most recent battle is playing out this week in Virginia, where a state representative with ties to the coal industry wants to make it more difficult for the state's Department of Environmental Quality to comply with the president's climate goals.

First, a little background: The nation's first anti-EPA bill came early last year in Kentucky, before the Clean Power Plan was even released. The proposed EPA rule would require Kentucky to cut its power-sector carbon emissions roughly 35 percent by 2030. That's bad news for the coal industry, which supplies more than nine-tenths of the state's power. So using a model bill developed by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (which has deep ties to the coal industry), Kentucky legislators passed a law that essentially prevents the state from complying with the Clean Power Plan. The new law bars the state from adopting any implementation plan that includes renewable energy or energy efficiency, or that encourages power plants to switch from coal to natural gas. With those restrictions, the EPA goal does indeed seem unreasonable; the state's top climate official recently told Inside Climate News that he has no idea how to meet the EPA's demands and stay within state law.

read more: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/02/states-virginia-obama-climate-bills

"We don't care about global warming", someone added, "global warming is crap according to Fox News and that's enough science for us — have you seen the record cold snap in Boston, for God's sake... Alleluia. Coal is god"... Burn coal, baby, burn...

----------------

Meanwhile in Queensland:

Several towns in Queensland were without water on Sunday as emergency services worked to clean up after ex-tropical cyclone Marcia, which ripped through Rockhampton and nearby areas on Friday.

Rockhampton deputy mayor Tony Williams told Guardian Australia it was the biggest natural disaster to hit the town in his lifetime.

“I was born and raised in Rockhampton,” he said. “We’ve had cyclones before but usually off the coast. We’ve had floods that have cut the town off for weeks, and we had a bushfire that was declared a national disaster in 2009.”

“This event trumps any that the community has faced before.”

read more: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/22/cyclone-marcia-queensland-towns-without-water-as-region-counts-cost-of-storm

Gus note: apart from cattle, Rockhampton is in the centre of a coal mining region. Coal burning is a large culprit in the release of "human-added" CO2 in the atmosphere which leads to MASSIVE climate stresses leading to heat waves, cyclones and record cold snaps... 

What grade does America deserve in science?

Well, this is the world’s most technically advanced society, and we have people denying climate change. These guys are still in deep denial, and future generations, what few of them will be alive, are just going to go, “What were you freaking people doing? What was wrong with you?” So, in a sense, an F. But if it makes you feel any better, you can say a B-minus. We have this top tier [of scientists] in the U.S., the people who graduated from Stanford, from Berkeley, from MIT, Cornell. Those people are still exceptional and really good. But we have this enormous gap between that and just regular software writers and farmers and people that need to be scientifically literate.

Is Congress friend or enemy to scientists?

Some of each. Whenever you have the head of the Senate science committee writing a book about the conspiracy of climate denial, you have a problem. I’m saying that in a way to be ironic and hilariously funny, but [Senator James] Inhofe is leaving the world worse than he found it. He doesn’t mean to, I understand that, but, nevertheless, he is.

read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/just-asking-the-science-guy-bill-nye-gets-hot/2015/02/11/1e278afa-a66c-11e4-a06b-9df2002b86a0_story.html?hpid=z5

PLEASE, READ FROM THE TOP...

Humans are hard-wired to ignore the effects of dangerous climate change, even though it threatens all, writes Lyn Bender.

It was White Night in Melbourne. So never mind the vacuousness.

As for climate change? We don’t even think about it, says George Marshall, activist researcher and author. We are wired by our early evolution, to ignore climate change even though it threatens all of us. Even though science tells us unequivocally, that we are progressing relentlessly to an unstable and uninhabitable planet; unless we change. Even as we become more aware of climate change, surveys indicate that we are becoming less concerned. It’s as though climate change has become a metaphor, to be referred to; but is considered less important than other issues, like for example health.

George Marshall contends that it is seen as in the future and as not an immediately identifiable threat.

But it is happening before our eyes. But we don’t seem to see it.

read more: 

https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/climate...

Meanwhile:

Solar energy is set to become the cheapest source of electricity in many parts of the world within the next 10 years, according to a new report released by German think tank, Agora Energiewende.

The report was commissioned by the independently funded organisation, designed to steer Germany towards its 80 per cent renewable energy target.

CEO Dr Patrick Graichen said they wanted to see if recent falls in the cost of photovoltaics would continue.

"The finding is there's no end to the cost decline in photovoltaics," he said.

"The technology still has further improvements so we expect that within the next 10 years photovoltaics will become, in many regions of the world, the cheapest source of electricity."

Dr Graichen said in some sun drenched parts of the world, it would be cheaper than burning fossil fuels.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-24/solar-track-becoming-cheapest-ener...

Residents of the remote Alaskan village of a Kivalina say they may be forced to relocate from their homes because of the effects of climate change.

The thinning of sea ice has meant it is not possible for the Iñupiat people of the region to hunt the bowhead whales, while the US government has warned that with less and less sea ice every year to protect the island, it could be washed away by powerful waves. Some have predicted Kivalina could be under water just 10 years from now.

“Global warming has caused us so much problems,” Joseph Swan, a Kivalina elder, told the Washington Post. “The ice does not freeze like it used to. It used to be like ten to eight feet thick, way out in the ocean.”

read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/climate-change-threatens-to-put-alaska-village-under-the-sea-10069631.html

First we look at Cyclone Olwyn:

The mining union has accused US energy giant Chevron of failing to evacuate workers from the Gorgon gas project on Barrow Island off Western Australia's north-west coast, despite a category 3 cyclone bearing down on the region.

The West Australian branch of the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Engineering Union said up to 1,600 workers were forced to sleep on blow-up mattresses in common areas of the project's accommodation camps because there were not enough rooms to house them.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is approaching the Pilbara coast and tracking to the south-west of Exmouth, which is currently without power.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/workers-stranded-on-barrow-island-as-cyclone-hits/6311292

Then there is Cyclone Nathan:

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is bringing heavy rain and strong winds to parts of far north Queensland but is virtually stationary in the Coral Sea ahead of its predicted swing away from the coast.

At 7:00pm (AEST) on Thursday, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the category two system was about 70 kilometres east north-east of Cape Melville and 175km north of Cooktown, and was "slow moving".

It is expected to intensify into a category three before doing a U-turn by Friday morning.

read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/cyclone-nathan-to-strengthen-off-queenslands-coast/6305458

This cyclone is likely to intensify and then move across south to New Caledonia...

And there is Cyclone Pam which is a BIG one...:

Update: 11:23AM CRUISE operators in Port Denarau have cancelled trips to the Yasawa Group as a safety precaution.

As Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam continues to move closer to the country, cruise companies say the safety of passengers and crew was paramount.

South Sea Cruises sales manager Lailanie Burnes said cruises to Yasawa were cancelled but some were operating to the Mamanuca Group.

http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=297942

This cyclone is likely to fly southwards below Brisbane latitudes... and make some damage in the Cook Islands...

I thought that Cyclone Pam was going to move through New Caledonia... But it devastated Vanuatu (a bit further east) instead. Meanwhile Cyclone Nathan is still stationary and after a slight move towards the Solomon Islands, there is a 90 per cent chance it will come back towards Queensland and hit Yeppoon and Rockhampton — like the previous cyclone. This is the prediction on professional weather charts. Meanwhile Cyclone Olwyn did a bit of damage in Carnavon: Not a single Banana "tree" (yes I know they are not trees but tall grasses) standing up, no power and no water, while a few houses got smashed up...

Meanwhile, as Nathan probably hits Queensland in a few days, there is a massive (intense) low (depression) in the Australian Bight which could ravage Tasmania a few days after... We shall see.

Meanwhile Pam is still travelling south, edging New Zealand's north island, to join the string of lows in the Antarctic Ocean — adding more energy down south. 

Cyclones are like giant vacuum cleaners. They suck energy out of the sea/atmosphere. Thus the weather in Sydney has gone cool. It's March, you would say, Autumn... but, if you think a cyclone in Queensland is not going to have influences further south, think again. They discreetly suck cool air from Antarctica and mix this with warm air from the tropics, like an egg beater...

Australia's $5 million contribution to address the devastating impacts of Cyclone Pam is a much-needed and welcome act.  But remedial responses like this are not enough.  Governments must also develop more proactive tools to help mitigate the impacts of disasters in the first place, including the displacement of people from their homes.

Climate change-related displacement is happening now.  It is not just a future phenomenon.  More frequent and more intense cyclones are consistent with climate change: disasters become disasters on steroids.  While history shows that many Pacific island communities are highly resourceful and resilient in the face of adversity, traditional coping mechanisms are being challenged by what the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator has called the "new normal". 

The people most affected are generally the most vulnerable already – the poor, living in environmentally precarious parts of the country, without the social networks or resources to get out of harm's way early.  By way of comparison, Australian tourists caught up in Cyclone Pam have emerged relatively unscathed.  They have the financial resources to shelter in more solid, permanent structures, and to get out of the country in the aftermath.  Most locals do not have that option. 

Humanitarian relief in such cases is essential.  It enables NGOs and UN partner agencies on the ground to provide urgent assistance, such as food, temporary shelter and medical care.  It can also affect whether, and how quickly, people can return home and rebuild.  But bandaid solutions like this are not enough.  As the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands told the Nansen Initiative on Disaster-Induced Cross-Border Displacement, "if we fail to plan, we plan to fail". 

First, we need to enhance disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.  These help to build resilience in communities by raising awareness, increasing preparedness, and building response capacity.  The systematic integration of disaster risk reduction measures means that if disaster strikes, people may avoid displacement altogether – or be displaced for a much shorter period of time. 

Second, we need to prepare for displacement.

read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/climate-change-brings-disasters-on-steroids-20150316-1m03dr.html

-----------------------------

THIRD: WE NEED TO drastically REDUCE OUR EMISSIONS OF CO2... 

A typhoon heading towards the Philippines could be as severe as Tropical Cyclone Pam, which tore through Vanuatu this month, a meteorologist says.

At 5:00pm (AEDT) on Monday, Maysak's centre was located approximately 130 kilometres north-east of Faraulep Island, in the Federated States of Micronesia.

Over the next 48 hours, the typhoon is expected to intensify significantly before hitting Yap Island and continuing north-west towards the Philippine Sea.

Neville Koop, a meteorologist with Fiji's Na Draki weather service, said Typhoon Maysak was expected to become a super typhoon, with winds near the centre exceeding 270 kilometres per hour with gusts of up to 340 kilometres per hour.

"It already is quite a large one," he told Radio Australia's Pacific Beat program.

"This is a very strong typhoon now. It will probably reach an intensity equivalent to Tropical Cyclone Pam when it peaks later tomorrow."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-31/typhoon-heading-toward-philippines-could-be-as-bad-as-pam/6360766

According to my other sources, this cyclone could peter out (30 %) before reaching Manila (40%) or pass northwards (30%) towards South Japan. This typhoon is quite early in the season... Note that by the 6th of April, there is a strong possibility (90%) that another cyclone will follow on a similar path.

Astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) have taken dramatic photos showing super Typhoon Maysak as it moves towards the Philippines.

Today, California Governor Jerry Brown announced mandatory water restrictions for the first time in the state's history. The announcement follows a drought of more than three years, which has officials worrying that Californians may have only one year of drinking water left.

The regulations require California cities to decrease water use by 25 percent, though, crucially, only requires agricultural users to report their water use and submit drought management plans. Agriculture accounts for about 80 percent of California's water usage. (For more drought background, check out our past coverage on agricultural water use—almonds are the biggest suck—and municipal water use.)

From the press release:

The following is a summary of the executive order issued by the Governor today.

Save Water

For the first time in state history, the Governor has directed the State Water Resources Control Board to implement mandatory water reductions in cities and towns across California to reduce water usage by 25 percent. This savings amounts to approximately 1.5 million acre-feet of water over the next nine months, or nearly as much as is currently in Lake Oroville.

To save more water now, the order will also:

Replace 50 million square feet of lawns throughout the state with drought tolerant landscaping in partnership with local governments;
Direct the creation of a temporary, statewide consumer rebate program to replace old appliances with more water and energy efficient models; Require campuses, golf courses, cemeteries and other large landscapes to make significant cuts in water use; and
Prohibit new homes and developments from irrigating with potable water unless water-efficient drip irrigation systems are used, and ban watering of ornamental grass on public street medians.

Increase Enforcement

read more: http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/04/breaking-first-time-california-enforcing-water-restrictions

Gus note: Sydney went through this rigmarole a decade or so ago... The dams were down to just above 20 per cent. The government of NSW had no choice but to enforce stringent water restrictions and install a desalination plant urgently — just in case. As soon as the desalination plant was brought on line, it rained like crazy. The dams overflowed. The desalination proprietors had a clause that no matter what a proportion of Sydney's "potable" (drinking) water should come from their plant. Fair enough. 

But we should not be complacent. Higher temperatures, drought and typhoons are becoming the fare of "climate change" aka global warming. So far the odds for another Katrina in the gulf of Mexico are increasing daily. As someone put it to me the other day: I don't know what the weather is doing in Sydney anymore... The fact is the delineation of the boundary between tropical and temperate weather has shifted south. Sydney, at 33 51 35.9 South, is right bang in the middle of this increasing shift. Tomorrow could be the start of another 2 year drought since El Nino is knocking on the door...