The pressure is not just on Tony Abbott to sell his plan, it's also on the government to deliver its ETS (emissions trading scheme), which so far it has failed to do. The opposition leader is taunting Kevin Rudd to call a climate change election, telling the PM that its legislation is doomed in the Senate.

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Earlier this week, the World Glacier Monitoring Service noted that based on present trends many glaciers will disappear by the middle of this century, with the overwhelming majority of glaciers in the Himalayas and elsewhere in retreat.

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And please let me repeat myself from above:

REMEMBER: the creep of global warming is a tiny 0.017 per annum to reach 2 degrees C extra on present average by 2100. I would not be surprised if the true warming is higher, presently hidden by apparent cooling in regions where the ice is warming but not melting. As this process continues, the warming will creep slowly till it goes gangbuster. Note: a warming creep of 0.1 degree C per annum will increase the temperature to 12 degree C by 2100 (compounding effect included).  Note: There is no way in the world that we, humans, can notice a change of 0.5 per annum (55 degrees C increase by 2100), let alone notice a 0.017 — by pointing a finger in the air. We have to monitor changes precisely and carefully... AND observe: There are numerous tell tale signs pointing to changes that are not mere fluctuations in seasonal "normal" fluctuations.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has hosed down comments from his finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce that the Coalition may cut public service jobs and the foreign aid program.

In his first big speech in the finance portfolio, Senator Joyce yesterday alluded to the possibility of trimming down the public service and questioned the amount of foreign aid going overseas.

And in attacking the Government's debt levels, Senator Joyce confused billions with trillions.

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what's a few zeros between us...?

from the ABC

The Coalition's climate change plan would cost taxpayers $27 billion to achieve the same cuts as the Government's emissions trading scheme (ETS), Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.

The war over climate change costings is showing no sign of abating with both sides of politics accusing the other of imposing a hefty tax on consumers to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The Government has released departmental advice which says the Coalition's plan, which would cost $10 billion over 10 years, would actually result in a 13 per cent rise in emissions.

The Opposition is committed to a 5 per cent cut in emissions by 2020 and Mr Rudd says it would have to spend almost three times more than it says to do so.

"We're also advised that if they were to actually be serious about their target of 5 per cent that the cost to the taxpayer would rise to $27 billion," he said.

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see the toon at top...

Washington region blasted by winds, record-breaking snow
By Ashley Halsey III
Washington Post staff writers
Thursday, February 11, 2010; A01


The fiercest storm yet in the worst winter in local history howled across the region Wednesday, locking virtually everything in a shroud of new snow that will take days to escape. And there might be more on the way.

As the region tries to right itself after what increasingly looked like a lost week, just digging out from under a foot of fresh snow piled atop two feet of previous snow has left road crews and 5.5 million Washington area inhabitants exhausted. The storm that could arrive Monday seemed a trivial threat after all that, but it could compound the havoc played with virtually every rhythm of daily life.

"Most likely it will be a modest event," said Jason Samenow, chief meteorologist of The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. "But the way this winter has been going, I wouldn't rule anything out." It's not clear to forecasters how much snow the storm could bring.

Local officials sought to have Maryland, Virginia and the District formally declared a disaster area, making the region eligible for federal funds to help already hemorrhaging budgets recoup the untold millions spent on snow removal.

"If there is ever a time for a state of emergency, this is it," said D.C. Council member Kwame R. Brown (D-At Large). "This District is not only facing a crippling snowstorm, but we're facing a crippling budget shortfall and citywide safety issues."

The federal government announced that it would remain closed for a fourth day Thursday. Most local governments and many private offices followed suit. All large area school systems already had given up until Tuesday, fearing for the safety of children forced into the street by unshoveled sidewalks. Utility crews were back at work, this time with fewer outages than the thousands caused by the weekend's heavier, wetter snow.

"Mother Nature has the upper hand right now," said Metro spokeswoman Lisa Farbstein. Only underground Metro service will operate Thursday, and Metrobus and MetroAccess will remain suspended. Montgomery Ride On, Fairfax Connector and MTA commuter buses are canceled Thursday, as are MARC and VRE trains. Amtrak's Northeast service will be limited. The region's three airports told passengers to check with their airlines Thursday before leaving to catch their flights.

As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, the snowfall total for the season in Washington had surpassed the 54.4-inch record set in 1899, and it rose to 55.6 inches by 4 p.m. It was even higher farther from the city, reaching seasonal totals of 72 inches in Baltimore and at Dulles International Airport.

"I never thought I would see a winter like this one in my lifetime," said Samenow, a native of the area. "The climate was colder back in 1899, when that record was set."

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Gus: Ahah! I would be tempted to be speculative here though I do not have the full set of data from the US snow storm.

But I would suspect that the temperature is actually not as cold as per a usual winter, in that region. Most likely warm air is flowing further north than usual, all laden with moisture and mixing with cold air from the north. The usual clear sky of a cold winter thus becomes full of moisture and warmer than average, but still below zero C (32 F) leading to the crystallisation of the water vapour into snow.

While in England, the reverse process may have been involved with a southerly cooler cell of air (due to a slowing of the Gulf Stream as predicted by global warming models) mixing with the usual English drizzle of that season coming from the north.

Snow forms in a variety of conditions as long as the temperature is below zero degree (32 F). Thicker snow tends to form when the temperature is "not too cold" though. The lower the temperature, the smaller the flakes generally — although not exclusively.

The rise of global temperature will be making the air absorb more moisture — creating contradicting effects in various circumstances.

A) It can promote warming, should the air stay clear or

B) it can promote cooling by forming clouds should the air become saturated.

These two events may be induced by minimal changes in temperature and air pressure.

The processes are very chaotic (unpredictable order) rather than "complex", due to the size and the enormous amount of variability in regional air mass — horizontally and vertically. Other factors such as air pressure, wind or the various layering of the atmosphere will influence the behaviour of the local surface weather. The whole lot is converging or getting away from the "dew" point — the point at which water vapour will turn into water.

In some lower temperature condition this water vapour will ice up. This has been a problem for aircraft for years and even with powerful "de-icing" mechanism in the wings, it sometimes lead to crashes nonetheless: The ice forms faster than it is melted by the de-icing system, while the ice grips the edge of the wings and builds up rapidly.

How many times have we observed high or middle level cloud moving in one direction while the lower clouds are moving in a different direction, sometimes in a totally opposite or square-on manner. There is a wind shear at a particular altitude and there will be another one higher above all this, in the clear air of the jet streams (around minus 50 C). Thus there are many complications to study global warming as the air layers have different temperature and flow. One strong indication of warming comes from the boundaries of "exchange" between various air masses that meet "traditionally" at reasonably known latitudes. We know of the "trade winds", we know of the "Doldrums", we know of seasonal winds like the sirocco on top of various interference and eddies that we see in high and low pressure systems.

What has been observed is several folds:

Glaciers are melting — the melt of glaciers is likely to retard global warming in a feedback loop effect, thus masking the problem of a somewhat rapid change.

There has been a noticeable shift in the "traditional" boundaries between air masses. Tropical air masses seem to have encroached a few hundred kilometres into the subtropical/temperate region. Some parts of Antarctica are getting "wetter". This is likely to mean that these part are warming up (syndrome of the clogging up non-defrosting fridge). Not by much, but at these latitude, a change of minus 50 to minus 49.5 degree C may not fully register as we may not be monitoring a particular place.

Australia appears to be more sensitive to change than most other continents because there are less mountainous features to modify its weather system. The "dry hot deserts" will be meeting place for southerly and northerly weather systems, with a tendency of shift towards the south. A front will often slide down as it crosses the continent.

Presently, I'd bet that a city like Sydney is becoming more and more under the influence of a subtropical/tropical weather system. It could be said to be "cyclical" but from my experience here, it is cyclical — but with a trend over the last 40 years towards a more tropical weather pattern (my garden being witness as well).

Most subtropical/tropical large land mass since the last big melt 12-10,000 years ago have shifted towards becoming deserts. Most models of global warming predict this trend to continue in Australia and the incidence of droughts to be more prevalent by 40 per cent in the near future, say by 2050. Beyond that it's a guessing game, but for the global warming theorist, there is more chance that it's not going to be pretty. presently the Eastern Australian sea current is flowing south at around 25 degree C.

So far my observations are that the Sydney temperature in February has been 2.3 degree above maximum average and about 3.2 degree above the average minimum, with a humidity higher than usual oscillating between 60 and 80 per cent. Usually summer in Sydney would see some rain, from the south. Most of the weather pattern, including rain, in hotter conditions, has been coming from a northerly direction.

Not quite the El Nino typical weather pattern for this region. And I'd bet it's going to stay this way for a while...

see toon at top.

from the independent

At least 55 people were killed when the fiercest storm in a decade swept across France, and western Europe, with wave surges flooding coastal regions and hurricane-force winds leaving a trail of devastation in their wake.

Most of the victims were in France, where the storm, called Xynthia, crashed against the western coast in the early hours of yesterday morning, but there were also deaths in Spain, Portugal, Germany and Belgium.

Wind speeds hit 108 mph at the tip of the Eiffel Tower, centuries-old trees were uprooted in the grounds of Versailles and on the coast, waves of more than eight metres swept inland, forcing residents to head for the safety of their roof-tops.

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One storm does not make a climate change... But two bad ones in 10 years (December 1999 and February 2010) in the same place tend to give an indication of a trend, especially, since time recorded, no storms had ever been so fierce there. This "trend", especially following some crazy weather in the US (more snow storms), in Canada (Vancouver today — 01/03/10 — at the end of the "winter" Olympics is 7 degree C and they had to bring in some snow from somewhere else at the beginning of the games... Then we had the Western Australian "warmest year on record" and some massive floods in Madeira plus a loose iceberg the size of Holland breaking off Antarctica...

A cool and rainy first day of autumn has marked the end of what meteorologists say was one of Sydney's hottest and wettest summers.

From the SMH

The deluges of the past three months, including a particularly wet February, made the past summer Sydney's second wettest in 10 years, meteorologist with the Fairfax-owned Weather Company, Sam Terry said.

And warmer than normal daily minimum temperatures made this summer the hottest in four years, or the fifth hottest in 150 years.

From December to February the average maximum temperature was just shy of 27 degrees," Mr Terry said.

"But the real stand-out was the average minimum, coming in at 20 degrees.

“Through a large part of February, Sydney was in easterly winds.

“This kept humidity high, and more cloud than usual, which stopped the mercury from dropping too low overnight.

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Hottest in so many years and wettest in so many — this, as a combined average of temperature and humidity, confirms my personal observations... Adding to January and December, one may end up with another "hottest summer on record".... Whatever. Take care...

From the ABC

A deluge which has swamped the dead heart of Australia and left towns and properties isolated has set new rainfall records.

In the outback town of Birdsville, in far western Queensland, Senior Constable Scott Gander pored over rain records dating back to 1892 in an effort to give the downpour, which began on Saturday night, some historical perspective.

It eclipsed anything he found.

In the 24 hours to 9.00am, 168 millimetres fell in Birdsville - the average annual rainfall delivered in one day.

Since Saturday the town has registered more than 225 millimetres - nearly nine inches on the old scale.

And the deluge, which came across the Simpson Desert from the Northern Territory with a slow moving monsoonal system, continues to bring rain to Central Australia.

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Gus: just for the record... you, the climate change sceptics (skepschitcks)...

From the Washington Post

Nearly 40 years after the first Earth Day, this is irony: The United States has reduced the manmade pollutants that left its waterways dead, discolored and occasionally flammable.

But now, it has managed to smother the same waters with the most natural stuff in the world.

Animal manure, a byproduct as old as agriculture, has become an unlikely modern pollution problem, scientists and environmentalists say. The country simply has more dung than it can handle: Crowded together at a new breed of megafarms, livestock produce three times as much waste as people, more than can be recycled as fertilizer for nearby fields.

That excess manure gives off air pollutants, and it is the country's fastest-growing large source of methane, a greenhouse gas.

And it washes down with the rain, helping to cause the 230 oxygen-deprived "dead zones" that have proliferated along the U.S. coast. In the Chesapeake Bay, about one-fourth of the pollution that leads to dead zones can be traced to the back ends of cows, pigs, chickens and turkeys.

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Gus: climate change, pollution and other problems are amplified by the size of the human population... And it's growing, growing, growing... by 2050, the estimate is that it will be about 150 per cent of 2000 population. Following this trend, by 2100, the human population will reach around 14 billion. No end in sight?... More CO2, more husbandry, more methane... You know the drill...

from the independent

Former US Vice President Al Gore on took aim at skeptics who doubt the reality of human-caused climate change, saying he wished it were an illusion but that the problem is real and urgent.

Gore, who has made the fight against climate change his signature issue since leaving the White House in 2001, specifically addressed challenges to the accuracy of findings by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"I, for one, genuinely wish that the climate crisis were an illusion," Gore wrote in an op-ed piece in The New York Times.

"But unfortunately, the reality of the danger we are courting has not been changed by the discovery of at least two mistakes" in reports by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Climate change skeptics have pointed to errors in the panel's landmark 2007 report - an overestimate of how fast Himalayan glaciers would melt in a warming world and incorrect information on how much of the Netherlands is below sea level - as signs that the report's basic conclusions are flawed.

The panel's report said that climate change is "unequivocal" and that human activities contribute to it.

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On 01/02/10, the surface sea temperature around Broome (Western Australia) is approaching 34 degrees C... In Sydney while it was above 25.5 degree C last week, the temperature has dropped to about 23.2 C. This is due to the Eastern Australian current moving out to about 400 miles offshore. The current is now running, on the same parallel as Sydney, at 26.5 degree C...

Blame is being laid on weak and aged sea defences after violent storms left at least 50 dead and thousands homeless along France's Atlantic coast.

Many died after the sea wall off the coastal town of L'Aiguillon-sur-Mer was breached, allowing 8m-high (26ft) waves to crash through the streets.

A local governor said the walls dated back to the time of Napoleon and needed to be replaced with taller barriers.

President Nicolas Sarkozy has pledged 3m euros (£2.6m) in emergency aid.

He was touring the worst-affected western coastal regions of Vendee and Charente-Maritime after declaring a national disaster, and promised to channel recovery funds quickly.

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It's easy to point out that the dykes and the sea walls were weakened by their Napoleonic age.... Bollocks. Were these thingsters brand new, unless they'd be nuke proof, they would have been blown off your backyard faster than a newspaper in a southerly buster. What has to be recognised is "storms" are getting itsy weenie bit stronger. The French meteo blokes could see that the storm was becoming "massive" (though the winds were not faster than about 150 km/h) but they "saw" the "low" millibar level in the centre and they launched the code red alert, way before it hit the coast. Anyone should have gone to high protected ground, like most people do when a hurricane threatens New orleans.

At the same time, there was a lunar king tide... Furthermore, the wind pushed "huge waves" for the area (very shallow sea usually there) which gained greater destructive power from the fact the tide had also been "sucked-up" by the atmospheric depression, by an extra few metres — thus giving more litoral depth to create "bigger" waves. For me, the dykes were the least of the problem but they gave up under the massive onslaught. The major problem is that most low lying areas of the world, from New orleans to Holland and the Ganges, have to face slightly bigger storms, with slightly rising sea levels and greater downpours of rain (as there was in that region of France), as temperate regions slowly "subtropicalise". But these regions are still also under the conflicting influence of northerly air masses, as well as subtropical storms such as Xynthia, that clipped Portugal and Spain on its way to France.

Some of the French authorities already admit that it will be somewhat futile to carry on building houses in regions that are at times below sea level, even with stronger higher dykes. With a worldwide 75 cm sea level rise estimated for 2100 and global warming, storms such as these will repeat with more frequency and more devastating outcome... We need to be prepared...

I fear from my friends in New Orleans, because no matter how strong the dykes are, the carbon-doixide-unleashed forces of global warming will add to the natural forces and together can only grow in strength...

NEW DELHI: In an unusual example of the effects of global climate change, rising sea levels in the Bay of Bengal have helped resolve a troublesome territorial dispute between two of the world's most populated countries, a leading Indian oceanographer says.

Sugata Hazra, the head of oceanography at Kolkata's Jadavpur University, says a flat muddy patch of land known as South Talpatti in Bangladesh and New Moore Island in India has disappeared under the Bay of Bengal. The landmass had been claimed by both countries but Professor Hazra says satellite images prove it has gone.

''It is now a submerged landmass, not an island,'' Professor Hazra told the Herald.

''Only small parts can be seen in very, very low tide conditions.''

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/rising-sea-level-settles-border-dispute-20100324-qwum.html

see toon at top...