Friday 22nd of November 2019

a round of balderdash, blather, bunkum, drivel, garbage, nonsense, piffle, poppycock, rigmarole with a lunatic...

Here we travel with more loonies… This time it’s the brother of Jeremy Corbyn, Piers. Piers (Richard) Corbyn professes to be an expert on telling 50/50-maybe-predictions on weather forecasting. Like all of us, Piers could not tell you, but he will, about the weather last week, with a high degree of imprecision. According to the most advance computerised models that use petaginagigaflops of data, one cannot forecast more than 2 weeks in advance. Beyond this, forecasting is more guess work, like a game of Poker. I guess Piers sucks at poker... 

Seriously, insurance companies have been loony enough to believe Piers' reading of entrails of crows in the moonlight and divining the magnetic sunshine in his courtyard, with a result also influenced on how often he goes to the toilet. Well, that’s about it. But not quite. He is very precious about what he does — and hates people pinching his stuff. WHO WOULD, you may ask?… He sells his forecasts through an outfit he created, called WeatherAction, which is probably meaningless with the two words together. Once or twice, Piers had a narrow streak of “good luck” which some critics have panned thus, the cads:
"It is unusual for most of the detail to be completely correct, but equally it is rare for nearly everything to be wrong… Some [Piers] forecasts are clearly very good, and a few are very poor, but the majority fall in the grey area in between, where an optimistic assessor would find merit, but a critical assessor would find fault.

As mentioned this is 50/50 forecasting  A dead clock is right twice a day. But as we know and have expressed many times on this site, forecasting the weather and understanding global warming are two different beasts. 

Corbyn has thus stated that the anthropogenic contribution to global warming is minimal in comparison with temperature changes due to increased solar activity. Bullshit. Talk to the people of Mozambique who have just been hit with two most powerful cyclones hitting their country in succession. Bang one. Bang two… And the sun has been very quiet lately.

Confidently, in 2008 Corbyn stated that "CO2 has never driven, does not drive and never will drive weather or climate. Global warming is over and it never was anything to do with CO2." Bullshit.

And the geezer can’t let up!:

"CO2 is still rising but the world is now cooling and will continue to do so.” Bullshit. You don’t need me to tell you that your petunias have cooked in the heat.

In 2009, Corbyn attended the International Conference on Climate Change organised by the Heartland Institute… Ahah, the famous Institute of Idiots

Contrarily, the hottest ten years were at the beginning of the 21st century. Temperatures for the years 2015, 2016 and 2017 were the highest ever recorded for the planet since measurements have ever been made. As well, the Vostok records are explicit like hot/cool porn for the serious climatologists. Simply put, the more CO2, the more heat. End of story. Go away Piers. The calculation is simple too: remove all the CO2 presently in the atmosphere and the temperature of the planet plummets 35 degrees Celsius. CO2 is a warming gas as demonstrated by rigorous scientific experiments. 

But Piers still maintains that the world is experiencing cooling on his website. I can believe this: his website is experiencing cooling… People have turned away. 

Corbyn has unfortunately appeared on talk-shows to discuss what he considers the weaknesses of the argument for man-made global warming. Piers is bullshitting to some god-does-cartwheels gullible opinionators who love to confuse audiences. These media pundits don’t care if the arguments are correct or not. All they want is biffo, counter-biffo and ill-thought-out punch-ups. Peace agreements are annoying to the Main-Stream Media (MSM) or what I prefer to call them the Meek Mediocre Mass Media de Mierda (MMMMM). 
Piers Richard Corbyn had to thus feature in the Channel 4 documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle in 2007. Remember this crap?Someone noted that Corbyn was introduced as 'Dr Piers Corbyn, Climate Forecaster' despite having no doctorate — nor any qualification specifically in climate science nor in environmental science.

In 2015 BBC Radio 4 apologised for an “unfortunate lapse” in a documentary, presented by Daily Mail journalist Quentin Letts, which featured Corbyn in a critique of the Met Office's views on climate change, while failing to mention the scientific consensus which is overwhelming — full of people with doctorates and PhDs and professorships galore — and a rigour which Corbyn could only reach with rigor mortis.

The picture above gives an inkling of Corbyn's "Solar Weather Technique” which  "combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations.” Nothing wrong with this, We all do this in our dreams or on a napkin at out local Italian restaurant to impress (or bore) the ladies with sanitised bullshit

Corbyn also considers the sun-earth magnetic connectivity. Excellent… Conventional meteorology has confirmed that such influence has no more than minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere

Following criticism of WeatherAction's poor forecasts in The Times and in particular from journalist Paul Simons, at The Guardian, Piers forbade the use of any extracts of his forecasts in any articles unless he had approved them (the forecasts or the articles? Who knows...). In addition, Corbyn also forbade newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons to quote his crystal-ball readings. 

It is not clear what Corbyn's demand was based on but let’s say that The Times and The Guardian are not on the same page… The Times would be more simpatico to his anti-global warming views, but one can stretch an illogical argument so far on this venerable paper that was bought by Murdoch.

 On the contrary, the Daily Stuporgraph in Sydney does not need forecast of the English weather in Sydney, yet it has its own bullshit perfectionists who reject global warming sciences, with religious fervour. 

Meanwhile, Corbyn has declined to publish the details of his calculations. We can only guess why...

Note: Gus is not very kind to Piers Richard Corbyn in the comments above... Two things: Piers Corbyn is retarding our actions on climate change, by playing the weather guru, though he has no scientific qualifications in climate change. And he was not kind to Greta Thunberg:

@ Piers Corbyn
Listening to an ignorant brainwashed child is deranged.
I am an actual scientist of physics Meteorology, astrophysics and climate and say @GretaThunberg is wrong and suffers mental abuse by manipulative adults.
Facts:#Scientists4truth @ClimateRealists RT

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missing the targets...

Environmental activists representing more than 200 organisations have called on the EU and the US to put an end to a booming transatlantic trade in fracked gas or face “taking the world far beyond safe climate limits”. 

In an open letter to the EU Climate Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete and US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, campaigners warn that the continued use and import of fracked gas “torpedoes critical climate targets and violates basic human rights”.

The statement comes after the US Department of Energy announced that Perry would be attending the first EU-US Energy Council High-Level Forum in Brussels on Thursday. 

Critics are concerned the high-level energy meeting, titled “Towards large-scale US Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports to the EU's gas market”, will pave the way for fracked gas to become a key part of a new transatlantic trade agreement between the EU and the US.

European Commission data shows that EU imports of LNG from the US increased 181 percent between July 2018, when President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to strengthen cooperation in the energy sector, and March this year.

The rapidly growing US natural gas export market has benefitted from a push in large-scale fracking projects which led to an increase in LNG production. US gas now represents around 12 percent of the EU’s total LNG imports.

Earlier this year, the EU Commission said it was ready to facilitate more gas imports from the US if prices and regulations became more favourable.

Environmental campaigners warn that developing new gas infrastructure that has a lifespan that goes beyond the point when developing countries need to fully decarbonise their energy sectors would “lock in” high levels of gas consumption and see the EU miss its long-term climate targets.ñete-rick-perry

a note about the silly headline...

In the picture at top of Piers Corbyn website, we are invited to ponder about:


Solar-magnetic activity with Lunar modulation drives weather, climate and CO2 — NOT other way around !

with a STUPID graphic saying NOT NOT NOT NOT...


This would make the idiotic denialists at the Heartland Institute fill with an infinite joy, though it is ridiculous

What drives CO2? Well this is easy to answer for people with a logical scientific mind: It's definitively NOT THE LUNATIC MODULATION, nor the solar-magnetic activities that "drive the CO2". The increase of CO2 in the atmosphere can be calculated from industrial, farming, transport, energy supply of human activities. And we also know that the Milankovitch cycles, have far more influence of the climate variations of the planet than the lunar "modulation", which to be fair can "drive" some of the weather, but not the general climate. If you grew up in Europe like me, you would be aware of the king-tides and often related foul weather due to the sun and moon alignment, but that's it.  Around the March equinox was usually a bad time, though some king-tides in winter did much damage. Still this has nothing to do with climatic trends.




new social and political metrics needed...

Conventional approaches to mitigating climate change are not working. Despite the actions pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement, actual progress is falling well short (1). Given limited time and resources, traditional efforts such as the climate stabilization wedge approach (2) are unlikely to be effective on their own. Physical science has shown how complex adaptive systems can cross critical thresholds (“tipping points”) (3), such that a relatively small change can trigger a larger change that becomes irreversible (4), where nonlinear feedback effects act as amplifiers (5). We propose to examine how to exploit similar sensitive intervention points (SIPs) and amplification mechanisms in socioeconomic, technological, and political systems to advance climate change mitigation. We focus on research and policies in which an intervention kicks or shifts the system so that the initial change is amplified by feedback effects that deliver outsized impact.


In conclusion:


We ... need a multidiciplinary framework integrating perspectives from the social, physical, and natural sciences as well as the humanities. ... The changes that we are about to make and the concequences of failure are so great that we cannot afford to fly blindly into the future...



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Read also: this is why we have to stop adani... in stop the stopper who stopped the stop adani coal mine...


the cost of paperclips was high for the neanderthals...

What’s more important to understand is that econometric models are built on a heap of assumptions – assumptions about how the economy works, and assumptions about what will happen in the future.


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Had the Neanderthals known the cost of becoming extinct, they might have fucked monkeys instead of Homo sapiens. Yes, knowing the cost of the future is impossible in terms of normal economics which for the last 100 years have been based on profit, boom and busts — WITHOUT ACCOUNTING THE COST TO NATURE. And this is where we're talking to ourselves and each others in circles diminishing. NATURE is closing in on our comforts. Today, a cyclone more...


The strongest storm to hit India in five years is heading towards Bangladesh, where authorities have ordered 2.1 million people to evacuate.

Key points:
  • There have been no reports of deaths from India, where about 160 people were injured and a million were evacuated
  • The India Meteorological Department said the Cyclone Fani was weakening
  • The "extremely severe" cyclone has impacted weather across the Asian subcontinent


Cyclone Fani barrelled into eastern India on Friday, damaging houses in the tourist town of Puri and wounding 160 people after about a million people were moved into 4,000 storm shelters.

Trees were uprooted and power and phone lines snapped as the storm made landfall on the eastern state of Odisha after it spent days building up power in the northern reaches of the Bay of Bengal, the India Meteorological Department said.

Bangladesh, which lies further up the forecast path of Cyclone Fani, ordered the evacuation of 2.1 million people before the storm arrives later on Saturday.


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What will be the cost of doing nothing? CATASTROPHIC. How to estimate the damage? The damage will end up costing far more than the GDP of the entire planet. How do we know this? If we only plan for the next ten years, our economic illusions will suffer a little. Within 15 years, the economies of the world won't be able to cope. It's as simple as that. Are we brave enough to plan FOR THE REAL FUTURE, even if we can't know what it will be? Planning for the future cannot be measured in "econometrics". It has to be built on what the sciences tell us: warming, sea rising and stronger storms are coming — even faster than the scientists can predict.



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so little time, so much to do...

Just seven months ago the UN told the world that we have 12 years to limit the climate change catastrophe. It means that to keep global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels we need to cut carbon pollution by 45% by 2030 and down to zero by 2050. Twelve years. Actually scratch that – now it is 11 years.

Now ask yourself how often that has been raised during this election campaign?

At the time a co-chair of the IPCC working group on impacts of climate change said: “It’s a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this is the moment and we must act now. This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency.”


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not permanent anymore...

Permafrost in the Arctic is thawing at such a rate that it could within just a few years double the amount of greenhouse gases released from organic matter long frozen in the ground, according to a new study.

"As the temperature of the ground rises above freezing, microorganisms break down organic matter in the soil," Merritt Turetsky, the research chair at the department of integrative biology at the University of Guelph, in Ontario, Canada, wrote in a co-written article published in the journal Nature

"Greenhouse gases-including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide-are released into the atmosphere, accelerating global warming," the authors note.

Permafrost, which consists of soil, rock, sediment and ice, is replete with carbon due to the decayed organic material from dead plants, animals and microbes that have built up in the ground over tens and in some cases hundreds of thousands of years.

The permafrost is thawing so rapidly that it is "dramatic to watch," state the authors in their report.

"Returning to field sites in Alaska, for example, we often find that lands that were forested a year ago are now covered with lakes. Rivers that once ran clear are thick with sediment. Hillsides can liquefy, sometimes taking sensitive scientific equipment with them," the study adds.

"Permafrost at [that] depth, even 100 years from now, probably would still be protected in the soil," Turetsky recently told CBC. "Except, here comes this really crazy liquefaction where this abrupt thaw really churns up this stuff."
According to projections, a rapidly increasing permafrost thaw will release around a minimum of 200 billion tonnes of carbon over the next 300 years, states the study, which adds, however, that the 200 billion figure could be a "vast understatement."

"We estimate that abrupt permafrost thawing in lowland lakes and wetlands, together with that in upland hills, could release between 60 billion and 100 billion tonnes of carbon by 2300. This is in addition to the 200 billion tonnes of carbon expected to be released in other regions that will thaw gradually," the study notes.

Abrupt permafrost thawing releases stored carbon in a much shorter amount of time, releasing vast amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas with some 30 times the efficiency of carbon dioxide at trapping heat.

To better understand the ongoing permafrost thaw, researchers recommend improving the technologies used to measure permafrost and carbon across the Arctic as a means to "establish baselines of permafrost and ecosystem change against which future measures can be compared."


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As ice and permafrost melt, this can give us a fake impression of cooling, like ice melting in our whisky. There is a point when the melting cannot prevent warming any more.  This will soon be a turning point on planet earth, probably in 2032... Read from top.