2032…http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/2002#comment-5950

Two thousand and thirty two...

In 1994, I had a fleeting dream. A dream that had morphed from another fleeting dream I had in 1972. In 1972, the dream was about the end of humanity as we know it, not via judgement day or a Lucifer crushing defeat — but in a radiating whimper. We were all looking at it from across Pittwater Road, Dee Why... Strange place for it, but the vantage point was letting us see the Norfolk pines of Manly beach — trees that by now were just sticks, joining the night sky to the sands.

The 1994 dream was set in the same place, daytime, but the skies above belonged to Germany.

These skies above Dee-Why Germany were extraordinarily clean as if scrubbed of all life and dust —and we know that dust to dust we are — we all take our turn at it. Deep blue. Only the people wanting to die ventured out. It could have been two thousand and septante two (2072) as my Belgium friends would call it, but then on letting the enormous feelings through it was definitely 2032. The latter version of the dream comes to me often, like a perennial plastic flower that blooms effortlessly since it's there in the shade.

Whatisname and his novel 1984 could have inspired me to write a book about it... The downfall of civilisation, etc... using this crazy fiction to justify my pecuniary existence.
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How does one come to a date for the threshold of definite chaotic climatic behaviour leading to one of humanity’s downfalls?… I end up like one of these preachers predicting the end of the world. I hope I'm not. I'm just warning of weather/climate chaos rather than the end of things. It’s complicated. Some ultra-warming scientists have postulated between 2045 and 2050 for this climatic peculiarity to happen. 

In reality we're already seeing indicators of this upcoming behaviour of the weather in various places — such as more heat bubbles — and larger polar vortex more often. Could one of these polar vortex end in the Floridian latitudes after a few destructive summer hurricanes? Is it because we know more about weather that we can see better what’s happening now than we could in the past? Are things changing? Looking at temperature charts of most cities in the US and Europe, we should note that there is more warming in summer and some cool/strange winters, than ever before — plus various extreme "storms of the century" happening now nearly every year, with times of respite during which we declare "everything's okay"...

Medieval cities suffer from sudden flooding like they never seen in more than 500 years. A bridge collapses in Genoa under a severe storm… Here, several factors could be at play: The age of the structure is important, not in the idea of concrete being used, as concrete can last a few thousand years, but in the 1950s and 1960s “modern” pumped-concrete was poorly made if I can say so. The maintenance engineers are blamed by the politicians. The engineers could blame the politicians for letting wild weather happen, as global warming increases — or for allowing the bridge to be built in the first place when already the safety factors were quite poor.

As a cartoonist, and a jack of all trades, I know concrete. The various pictures of the broken bridge show some sad characteristic cracks, typical of over-watered cement during construction, leading to porosity and hairline cracks. I could be wrong in this case, but many Sydney buildings built during these decades also suffer from the same disease called "concrete cancer". The concrete has poor self-adhesion in parts and the porosity leads to rust of the reinforcing steel. As well, (I could be wrong in regard to Genoa) the reinforcing seems to have been "centered" instead of having been near the surface of the beams and pillars. This is possibly why engineers were working hard at repairing the structure, but it collapsed nonetheless. Who's to blame? Water? Too much water in the concrete as it was poured? And not enough steel in the "skin" of the structure? Anyway, a SEVERE storm would have shaken this somewhat audacious structure pretty bad. 

Meanwhile in Sydney, it looks as if some “back-burnings" went wild and turned into a few “winter bush-fires"… A bit early for this caper and kids with matches. Some houses destroyed. The usual.

So back to 2032. Presently many US cities average temperatures are going up about one degree Celsius per 50 years, with new record high spikes. The average monthly temperature for July is rising significantly in both Phoenix and Philadelphia from year to year. What does this mean? Is it rising anywhere else? As Palm Springs approached 50 degrees Celsius (122F) we also should know that higher temperatures have been reached previously in quite a few places, including Pakistan. But, despite this year on the way to be declared only the fourth warmest in recorded history, the planetary trend still shows a major warming all around. When will the “hockey-stick sharp angle" show up? 2032?

Between now, mid 2018, and 2032, the planet will be subjected to two MAJOR high activities from the sun cycles and a couple of fierce El Ninos. One high intensity sun cycle is starting around 2020, the other will be around 2032. The last high activity of the sun was considered an average fizzer, yet it produced three of the warmest year on record — 2015, 2016 and 2017. But the next high energy sun cycles should be scorchers. So from 2021 to 2027 we can expect more record heat as more CO2 will also be produced by our industries and transport. With this incoming extra plus the already fast increasing global warming, record temperatures in some European and US cities already now in the low 40 degrees Celsius could go above 48 degrees Celsius episodically. Similar high temperatures for Sydney, Australia, (present record of 45.8 degrees Celsius a few years ago [46.5 in the western suburbs], with a 47+ degrees Celsius record in the western suburb this year [45 degrees Celsius for the city]). If you don't see a pattern here, you are not paying attention or you are paid by the denialist lobby not to see a trend.

The resultant of these high temperatures is the major destruction of vegetation, both through "sunburn and fire". This in turn reduces planetary photosynthesis, thus reduces the absorption of CO2, increasing it far more than we reduce our own (guffaw) emissions.

Here we must understand the seriousness of this situation: by and large we're adding about 3 ppm of CO2 per annum in the atmosphere. In the next 14 years to 2032, we will add another 42 ppm of CO2 despite "reductions" in certain areas, but with increases in other such as demands of comforts in an increasing world population that travels more. To this we should add about 10 ppm of CO2 due to the degradation of photosynthesis due to the extra heat. All these added to the record 412 ppm recorded this year and we reach 464 ppm of CO2 by 2032, EASILY. Add another 5 or 6 for conflicts in which explosives add to this total and also the extra methane and NOx that rise exponentially from this process. By then our mountain of plastics will have reached plague proportion and we will drown in micro-plastics. Species will die and rot like they do presently on Florida's shores... What else do you want to know?

With added deforestation for timber, should photosynthesis reduce by one fifth on this planet, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere could quickly surpass the 475 ppm limit calculated by conservative scientists for "weather stability as we know it". Concentrations of CO2 could reach above 500 ppm, by around 2030. The present "stable" convection currents in the atmosphere by then will go wild, like water in saucepan on the boil. Lucky we have nights. These tends to cool off the general trends, though the warming ocean surfaces will keep the heat up.

Under these incoming higher concentrations of CO2, temperate zones will become tropical/desert in a jiffy, especially in the northern hemisphere despite the moderating presence of oceans and sea. This of course will lead to the loss of vegetation compounding the problem. The Arctic zone will turn into a temperate zone in summer with nearly no ice in winter, and some temperate zones will experience massive super-storms, as fierce as hurricanes and cyclones. Equatorial regions will be more stable but still warmer by one or two degrees Celsius, while the southern ocean could become a constant "white water" windy area with Antarctica melting at a rate of knots. Australia will increase in general dryness with fierce storms in between long spell of heat. More severe droughts with temperatures hitting beyond the 52-54 mark in the warmest of our "hot places" such as Marble Bar. And all this could happen in just a few years, as global warming snowballs.

By then, most nuclear power stations in the USA and Europe will have to shut down as water used for cooling the systems will be too warm, electricity grids will be downed by storms and wind farms would have to be feathered. Some older solar panels might "cook". And let's not mentioned coal-fired and gas power stations that could totally burn down. As there won’t be any electricity for air conditioning, most homes and buildings will be overheating. Food will perish in freezers during massive winter storms. It has happened before. MORE people will die from the heat. 

Soon it could become a bum rush. Everyone for himself/herself trying to find fresh "cool" water. Soldiers will guard wells like they did in the middle ages or during the religious wars. We will blame our governments and discontent will breed revolutions to no avail. The solutions to the problem will not exist anymore. They only existed in the 1990s and a few years after this, such as now which to say the least is already quite late...

With a pontificating Australian Prime Minister and other idiotic politicians only jockeying for a bit of fame in the sun, we are concocting a vapid “solution” based on flimsy cost of fish rather than on the real nature of the problem.

So "2032" — when the weather/climate becomes erratic beyond our imaginings, might happen sooner or later, but it will happen. What we have to do NOW is try NOT to make it worse than it could be.

Malcolm, please do something other than a stupid NEG that has not a single redeeming feature and, on the scale of political hubris, is like wearing a beige cardigan on a hot day at the beach because mum said so... Get a life.

Gus Leonisky
Your local oracle...