Monday 23rd of December 2024
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the battle after that -- gus makes another wild prediction...

2024

DeepStack: expert-level artificial intelligence wins poker games... Playing games is for artificial intelligence to win. Most games are 100% predictable. One only needs to play the correct moves, including Chess and Backgammon. Machines win Chess all the time. 

Contrarily, Poker is described as the quintessential game of imperfect information, cunning, asymmetrical choices and bluff. It’s like politics. Politics is like poker where the real stakes are people’s lives. Being able to negotiate and to bluff is essential. Artificial intelligence now wins every time at this level. It’s the new norm. 

Seriously, we now have to consider Artificial Intelligence as our political guiding light. So far we have cultivated unprincipled rich loonies versus principled poor losers to run our politics. No wonder, we’re sputtering like old farts wondering where they came from.

But all is not that simple. Remember the robot, Kryten, on Red Dwarf?. His morality chip was compromised by learning to cheat from Lester. And Kryten enjoyed cheating. This is where a highly developed Artificial Intelligence turns into devious Bender. 

The only less painful counter-measure to this robotic moronisation is to pray that Bart Simpson can be a challenger despite being the Dumb Non-Committed representative. Bart is more cunning than Bender but cannot swallow nuts and bolts with a swig of oil. Bender wins thus. Four years later, the challenge of the US presidential elections is machines versus machines: Transformers versus Terminators. Good luck.

It may not be as bad as it seems because despite having learnt the bad traits of humankind, the machines can sublimate negotiating skills and soon peace reign on earth. Of course, humans would be irrelevant or enticed to suck to the machines for redemption, but this would be a non-change status of our position in regard to the big guy (male) in the sky. 

Gus Leonisky

Your local Artificial Intelligence agent.

 

presidential elections 2028...

If all my calculations are correct, the 2028 US presidential elections will be between Transformers and Terminators. Vote carefully.

winning intelligence...

Artificial intelligence has seen several breakthroughs in recent years, with games often serving as milestones. A common feature of these games is that players have perfect information. Poker is the quintessential game of imperfect information, and a longstanding challenge problem in artificial intelligence. We introduce DeepStack, an algorithm for imperfect information settings. It combines recursive reasoning to handle information asymmetry, decomposition to focus computation on the relevant decision, and a form of intuition that is automatically learned from self-play using deep learning. In a study involving 44,000 hands of poker, DeepStack defeated with statistical significance professional poker players in heads-up no-limit Texas hold’em. The approach is theoretically sound and is shown to produce more difficult to exploit strategies than prior approaches.

Read more:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2017/03/01/science.aam6960

 

 

In game theory, the Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy.[1] If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing strategies while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitutes a Nash equilibrium. The Nash equilibrium is one of the foundational concepts in game theory. The reality of the Nash equilibrium of a game can be tested using experimental economics methods.

Stated simply, Amy and Phil are in Nash equilibrium if Amy is making the best decision she can, taking into account Phil's decision while Phil's decision remains unchanged, and Phil is making the best decision he can, taking into account Amy's decision while Amy's decision remains unchanged. Likewise, a group of players are in Nash equilibrium if each one is making the best decision possible, taking into account the decisions of the others in the game as long as the other party's decision remains unchanged.

read more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium

 

DeepStack solves an approximate Nash equilibrium, and develop its own strategy as the game advances, only for certain changes. Its strategy is stochastic (set), as the result of computation that produces a probability distribution over the available actions. It wins. Should other players change strategy, they loose. Either way the machine wins. 

In politics, the machine would understand the "public" -- the exposed cards that all can see and the secret bluff (the hidden cards and the possible combinations with the public cards). 

The sooner we can adapt this winning strategy to humanity the better. The problems are much bigger though as the first thing to decide is the aim and rules of the "game". The machine is also not to be the winner but the provider of the maximum wins for all without destroying the playing table (environment). 

Already, the machines are able to think beyond the square and solve the imponderables. Welcome to a certain future in which certainty is very wonky at the present.

 

This is serious.

 

and confuciutronic said...

Artificial intelligence may take a lot of jobs away. If we don’t move fast enough. If we’re not innovative enough. If we don’t give simple and easy technology products for small businesses, most of them can’t survive in 10 years. If small businesses can’t survive, we can’t survive,” said Ma, speaking in Detroit at the Gateway 17 conference for entrepreneurs.

"It's going to be painful. Some people who catch the wave will be rich, will be more successful. For some people, it will be more painful. The government, you know, the world is going to be data. The people will now have more data than the bosses," he said in an interview with CNBC.

According to Goldman Sachs, professions like truckers, secretaries, cashiers, bank tellers, waiters and real estate agents could be replaced by artificial intelligence in the near-term.

However, robots will never be wise as humans, Ma said.

“It's about wisdom. It's about experience. So I don't think the machine — the artificial intelligence — is gonna replace the wisdom," he said.

During the conference, Ma repeated his prediction last week that Alibaba will be worth more than the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2036, bigger than the economies of France or the United Kingdom. Alibaba wants to earn $1 trillion in gross merchandise volume by 2020, according to the billionaire.

read more:

https://www.rt.com/business/393359-jack-ma-artificial-intelligence/

 

Gus view is that artificial intelligence is already smarter than humans. I have been working on this project for quite a few years now. Confuciutronic is already old hat. Now we are developing Confuciutum computing (Quantum computing) AND the possibility of consciousness in the machines... The wisdom will leave us breathless.