In Australia too the art of punditry is dead, or close to it.
At a recent summit in Canberra, one of the more self-effacing members of the Press Gallery was asked to make a few predictions.
"The way we are travelling," he said "you would be better off following a bunch of blindfolded monkeys throwing darts."
The record of punditry through this year speaks for itself.
The minority government will collapse, and there will be an early election.
Kevin Rudd will reclaim the leadership, if not this month, then next month, or the month after that...
If he doesn't then Julia Gillard and the Government faces annihilation whenever the election is held.
Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is as safe as houses.
And 'that' speech on sexism was a shocker, guaranteed to backfire.
It's not a Canberra Press Gallery thing. Most of those predictions have been embraced at one point or another by regular columnists' right around the country.
It seems that as every opinion poll comes along, political judgments are made and then somehow snap frozen. There is no acceptance that the polls, and the politics, are subject to significant change.
Silver, the latest geek to make a name for himself in New York, would never make the call until the last minute. Only when the election is nigh would he crunch all the numbers.
Consumers of all this punditry have been badly let down this year, no doubt about it. But they shouldn't get too upset.
As we have seen yet again, the pundits, no matter how big their reputations, have practically no influence on election results.
We live in a democracy and punditry is not dead... Anyone has a stake in the value of what people perceived but the true art of punditry is in the make-believe, in the subtle enforcement of view points, in the constant media massaging of slanted "information" to suit a view point... Basically, the media in general does not like Julia Gillard because she's far more resilient than the media has predicted. So the media will up the ante and fire at will until she bleeds to death.
Should the media be less anti-Julia and more critical of Tony from now on, it could take about six month to turn the table around. Or one day...
Presently the media has placed Tony and Julia in the same basket to bring Julia down, though the media love Tony — but 70 per cent of the country does not like him... So, in a perverse way, the media tries to muddle the stakes by also being in love with the second mediocre fiddles, Malcolm and Kevin... The media has been cultivating these two pot plants to shade the real bum-fight for the canopy. The media want people to love Rudd and Malcolm and constantly present them as better options than the current leadership, massaging the "opinion polls" with this extra dimension... Both Rudd and Malcolm are faulty, but the media cultivates the perception that they are gods. Rudd is a selfish bum and Malcolm is lacking balls. Rudd is arrogantly vindictive, Malcolm is neutered in a pack of mad raging cattle.
It's not a single pundit that can have influence on election results unless this pundit is trusted... But an army of pundits constantly barking at Julia and loving Tony can have an effect.
If tomorrow these pundits changed camps en masse, for whatever reason, such as an extreme event of global warming in their backyard — unless the media blames Julia for not having done enough on this subject — Tony would fall into oblivion. He's that weak. Julia, to her credit, under constant attack from all quarters including her own troops of degenerate catholics, is still ruling the roost. Should Julia retire, Rudd and Turnbull would soon be shot at by the media and Tony Detritus — the man who cannot open his mouth without being a nasty smart-arse — be declared the victor despite 70 per cent of the people not liking him (hating him)... Reluctantly the ignorant masses would go for his team of has-beens and morally corrupt whiners, because for many years the media has painted those Liberal (conservative) weeds with the colours of roses.
In mid November support for the ALP is 50.5% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, November 10/11 & 17/18, 2012.
Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the ALP primary vote is 36.5% (up 1% in 2 weeks) and the L-NP 38.5% (down 4.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is up by 1.5% to 11.5% and Independents/ Others is up 2% to 13.5%.
If a Federal election were held today the result would be too close to call and would depend on minor party preferences according to this face-to-face Morgan Poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 107.5pts (up 2.5pts over the last two weeks) with 45.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 38% (down 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the Gillard Government regaining a slender two-party preferred lead with the ALP (50.5%, up 4%) leading the L-NP (49.5%, down 4%) — a return to the Morgan Poll result of mid-October and despite a fall in Consumer Confidence to 112.7 (down 3pts this week).
“Looking closely at the results by gender shows men are only slightly changed: L-NP (54.5%, down 1%) cf. ALP (45.5%, up 1%) while the ALP has made its strongest gains amongst women (55.5%, up 6.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 6.5%). This is a clear indication of a widening in the so-called ‘gender gap’ recently brought up by PM Julia Gillard in Parliament in a speech directed at Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.
AN EXCLUSIVE poll conducted for News Limited this week has found the political fightback of Julia Gillard is stalling after a toxic parliamentary year ended with political attacks, smear and accusations of criminal conduct.
Just one in five voters believes she has been completely open and honest - but a majority say it will not change their vote at the next election.
Of 1015 people surveyed across Australia on Thursday and Friday nights, 31 per cent said she had lied and 31 per cent said she was economical with the truth.
Regardless, 56 per cent of voters said it would not influence their vote. According to the Galaxy Poll, 26 per cent said they were less likely to vote Labour and 9 per cent were more likely to vote Labor, suggesting a net loss for Labor in voter intention.
Tony Abbott would be elected prime minister if an election were held now with the Coalition ahead 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
Assuming a uniform national swing, that would deliver the Coalition up to 20 seats if an election was held now including Treasurer Wayne Swan's Queensland electorate and dump and end the political careers of other cabinet ministers including Craig Emerson, Gary Gray and Peter Garrett.
Voters offered strong support - 60 per cent of those surveyed - for the Prime Minister making a full account of her involvement in the affair through a statement to Parliament. Ms Gillard has consistently denied any wrongdoing in lengthy press conferences but a statement to the House would expose her to censure if she was found to have misled Parliament.
The ferocious end-of-year attack over the affair - in which the Coalition was unable to prove allegations of illegal behaviour by Ms Gillard but still demanded she resign - coincides with Mr Abbott's disapproval rate climbing to 63 per cent, a record for him and the second highest in Nielsen poll history.After a year dominated by political scandal, Mr Abbott's approval rating fell 2 points to 34 per cent in the poll, taken from Thursday to Saturday, and his disapproval rating rose 3 points.Ms Gillard now has a 10-point lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, with Ms Gillard preferred by 50 per cent of voters (down 1) and Mr Abbott by 40 per cent (down 2).Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbotts-handling-of-awu-backfires-20121216-2bhmh.html#ixzz2FFY7N9hy
The Fairfax/ReachTEL robocall poll of Werriwa, Chifley, Blaxland and MacMahon on ‘Thursday evening’ has no validity. One third of the voters have no landlines. One quarter were out, at late-night shopping. One fifth were driving home from their work in the city. One tenth were out on the town, carousing.
Fairfax, it seems, has started cheating too.
The preferences are redistributed as if it were 2010, when there was half as many Independents, Refuseds and Others as there are now, and no Undecideds.
Give me a break. This is a cheat.
It is not to say, though, that Rudd would not do better than Gillard in those ignorant, crammed, aspirational shires of McMansion mortgagees. But it is likely, in my view, in my fallible view, that Shorten would do better than Rudd, and win all four seats, or retain them. Though this is not tested. Why not? Why test Rudd, who has ruled himself out of the contest, and not Shorten, who is clearly, this year or next, or soon after, Gillard’s successor?
This is not just cheating, old friend, it is probably a crime.
See toon at top...
JULIA Gillard faces the most crucial 24 hours of her leadership as it emerged Labor polling taken on the eve of Kevin Rudd's political assassination revealed a rebound for the overthrown PM.
The polling, which suggested Labor could still have won an election in 2010 under Mr Rudd's leadership, was kept a secret from him, most senior ministers and the majority of the Labor caucus for fear it could have unravelled plans for the coup already under way.
The secret polling also contradicts the official Labor research used at the time to convince MPs to replace Mr Rudd.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/secret-pro-kevin-rudd-polling-buried-by-labor/story-fncynjr2-1226601992690#ixzz2O7081pR4
SECRET POLLING? Where? whose? Are they taking us for mugs?... Polling is serious business. It's private enterprise. It's professional. Polls are paid for by political parties, newspapers and soda pops. Secret polls never stay secret for long... To have this caper thrown in our face now? Come on, pull the other leg...
At the moment we are force-fed poll results every second day with the usual banter: Kevin Rudd is more popular than tomato sauce in a glass bottle, but Tony Abbott's Libs (conservatives) would win the next election no matter what... The following poll, should Kev become the twice risen soufflé, would tell us that soufflés don't last five minutes in the sun. Because let's face it. Polls can be manipulated by what newspapers subliminally tell us to believe in, despite all the evidence to the contrary.
I must say, I am quite phenomenally surprised with ALL MAINSTREAM MEDIA, including the ABC, daily gunning against Julia and Labor, that the Libs/Nationals only have 53 per cent of the poll margin... And this worries them silly, because it's a case of about three per cent of the population changing its mind and it's even-stevens... Should four per cent shy away from the silly coalition and its rat-bags, then, it's good night Tony. As it should be. And this four per cent shift can happen quickly, should the media stops its relentless attack on Julia and Labor... That's why the media and Tony Abbott are worried sick.... Another six months and things can change dramatically...
The main "polling" at the time of Kev's departure was that his colleagues knew Kev was not a team player, was making mistakes, was half-committed and often full of rage. Sure he looks like a nice Cheshire cat with glasses but had there been a leadership spill (as Kev should have asked for), he would have lost 100 per cent. He did not want this further "humiliation", but since then Kev has been sharpening his knives — not for the good of the country but for the advancement of Kev... Kev would know it would be silly to challenge now... it would leave him far too long in the open and things would go sour for him by next election, even if held tomorrow...
Beginning just before the 2004 federal election, it has gained attention for its accurate predictions of voting patterns at recent federal and state elections.
WHAT? Galaxy does polls "published" in the rags of the merde-och press while Newspolls is "published" in the rust bucket unashamedly called "The Australian"...
There you have it: As I have mentioned before, the merde-och press has no shame in the manipulation of Australian voters... Nor in telling us what they think by telling them what they should think...
This is what I wrote yesterday:
Now that the Rudd issue is finally settled), the media should desist to ask that same lame question again... So, will the media driven opinion polls stop asking about Rudd's underpants once more?... Who knows. If they don't stop, then this would show the media AND the opinion pollsters are together in bad-will, still trying to oust the present PM for no reason.
and I repeat:
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