Saturday 20th of April 2024

the beginning of the beginning...

rossgarnautcyclone

JULIA GILLARD: We will have to assess the damage from the cyclone and we will meet that damages bill from the federal budget. It will require cutbacks in other areas. There's no point sugar-coating that. And I suspect when we make cutbacks in other areas to support the rebuilding, there will be people who aren't very happy about where the cutbacks are made.

TOM IGGULDEN: Dealing with the cost of climate change was, by coincidence, the theme of a speech tonight by Professor Ross Garnaut, the Government's top advisor on the subject.


ROSS GARNAUT, CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISOR: While Australia has always been a place of variable climate, a place of drought and flooding rains, the greater energy in the atmosphere and the seas can intensify extreme events and I'm afraid that we're feeling some of that today. And we are feeling that at a time when global warming is in its early stages.


TOM IGGULDEN: Professor Garnaut says this is the year for action in Canberra on climate change, but it won't happen without a push from the wider community, he says, including those who've just experienced one of the country's worst cyclones.

ROSS GARNAUT: A warming climate does lead to intensification of these sorts of extreme climatic events that we've seen in Queensland and I think that people are wishing to avoid those awful challenges in Queensland will be amongst the people supporting effective action on climate change.


TOM IGGULDEN: As the country's third major clean-up operation gets underway, in Canberra debate's turning to how to pay the bill for increasingly severe weather events.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3129540.htm

another one in a hundred years event...

Last year's drought in the Amazon raises concerns about the region's capacity to continue absorbing carbon dioxide, scientists say.

Researchers report in the journal Science that the 2010 drought was more widespead than in 2005 - the last big one - with more trees probably lost.

The 2005 drought had been termed a "one in a century" event.

In drought years, the Amazon region changes from being a net absorber of carbon dioxide into a net emitter.

The scientists, from the UK and Brazil, suggest this is further evidence of the Amazon's vulnerability to rising global temperatures.

They also suggest the days of the Amazon forest curbing the impact of rising greenhouse gas emissions may be coming to an end.

The 2010 drought saw the Amazon River at its lowest levels for half a century, with several tributaries completely dry and more than 20 municipalities declaring a state of emergency.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12356835

 

abnormally warm

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a very good chance that more cyclones will hit Australia before the season is out.

Communities in north-west Queensland are cleaning up in the wake of Cyclone Yasi, which crossed the coast as a category five storm on Wednesday night and left a trail of destruction.

The towns of Tully, Mission Beach, Cardwell, Silkwood and Innisfail bore the brunt of the monster storm's 285kph winds but there are no reports of deaths or serious injuries.

The director of the bureau's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, Chris Ryan, says Cyclone Yasi has generally behaved as predicted so far.

He says Yasi was more intense than both Cyclone Tracy and Cyclone Larry.

"For the Queensland coast this is an exceptional storm. Its intensity looks like it's the most intense for many decades, perhaps going back before we had satellite imagery to properly measure the intensity of cyclones," he said.

The La Nina system which sparked the cyclone season is still well and truly kicking and Mr Ryan says more cyclones could be on the way.

"The waters all around tropical Australia are still abnormally warm," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/03/3129454.htm

meanwhile down south...

A super-cell thunderstorm has hit Victoria, bringing widespread flash flooding.

The State Emergency Service has rescued 12 people from raging waters and received more than 750 calls from residents in Melbourne and Mildura.

SES spokesman Lachlan Quick is urging people to stay off the roads.

"There's been a significant number of people needing to be rescued from cars trapped in floodwaters," he said.

"We are urging people not to drive, ride or walk in floodwaters. It is one of the most dangerous things you can do and the main cause of injury and death when flooding occurs."

The Calder Highway, south of Mildura, has been flooded.

Flash flooding warnings have been issued for all Victorian districts except East Gippsland, and flood watches are current for the greater Melbourne catchments, north-east Victoria, west and south Gippsland and the Goulburn and Broken basins.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/04/3130523.htm

fighting the flat-earthers...

The argument, Brown's included, is simply that as the planet gets warmer, these rains and floods, droughts and blizzards will become more frequent and more destructive of life and the environment.

A lot of the denialist stupidity is ideological, as in Tony Abbott 's infamous remark that climate change is ''crap''. He and his conservative fellow travellers worship that idiotic British peer and coolist Lord Monckton, who also believes Barack Obama wants to impose a ''communist one-world government'' on us.

Others, such as Sydney's Catholic archbishop, George Pell, resort to theology. Pell has said that belief in man-made global warming is a pagan superstition.

And last month he felt moved to write: ''A month or so ago, the global warmers were announcing 2010 as one of the hottest years on record. Then a colossal freeze descended on Europe and, more recently, on the east coast of North America.

''Nothing so delicious has happened since President Obama had to leave the global-warming summit in Copenhagen a day early so his aircraft would not be snowed in.''

This is singularly fat-headed, even for an archbishop. The death and misery caused by this icy deliciousness is a curious subject for priestly wit. In fact, the United Nations World Meteorological Organisation confirmed last month that ''2010 ranked as the warmest year on record, together with 2005 and 1998 … Arctic sea ice cover in December 2010 was the lowest on record.''

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/flatearthers-its-time-for-a-cold-shower-20110204-1agt8.html

a one in 10 years event...

Rare Storm Hits Texas, Causing Chaos for Drivers
By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.

HOUSTON — A rare winter storm dropped sleet and snow over much of Texas early Friday, creating chaos on icy roads and hampering travelers from Dallas in the north to Brownsville in the south.

Dallas took the brunt of the storm, as snowfall forced the closure of Love Field on Friday morning and caused more than 120 flights to be canceled at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

The Dallas metropolitan area has been battered with three days of bitter cold, ice storms, rolling blackouts and transit breakdowns as it prepares to host the Super Bowl on Sunday. By 6 a.m., most of the metropolis was blanketed with 5 to 6 inches of snow, and snow was expected to fall until noon, the National Weather Service said.

Paul McDonald, a forecaster with the service, said the mass of arctic air that had blanketed much of the country had caused three days of frigid weather in Texas as well, freezing the ground. Then overnight, two low-pressure systems moved into the state — one from New Mexico and one from the Gulf of Mexico — and collided with the cold air, producing snow and ice. Though Texas usually has balmy enough temperatures this time of year to melt ice and snow as it hits the roadways, this time the pavement iced over.

“If the air had not been so cold, we would have seen a little light draggle, but cause the air was so chilly it turned into snow,” he said. “We get about one event like this every 10 years.”

In Austin and San Antonio, sleet covered the roads after midnight before snow began to fall in the early morning. Major roadways were closed and accidents snarled traffic in both towns.

Students at the University of Texas in Austin went out to frolic in about two and a half inches of snow as administrators canceled classes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/05/us/05storm.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print

a one in 40 years event...

Freezing weather and snow have paralysed much of northern Mexico, which is experiencing its lowest temperatures in more than 50 years.

Thousands of homes have been left without electricity and water, and schools and factories have been closed.

At least six people are reported to have died from the cold.

Among the worst-hit cities has been Ciudad Juarez, which is already suffering the worst violence in Mexico's drugs war.

Temperatures in the border city have dropped as low as -18C (0F).

"There have been cold temperatures in the past, but nothing that has lasted for so many days. It's been 40 years since the city has seen an emergency like this," city's civil protection chief Efren Matamoros told Reuters news agency.

The cold weather has shut down units at 17 power stations across northern Mexico, the Federal Electricity Commission said.

Factories have been asked to reduce their consumption of power, and there have been blackouts in some areas.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12370717

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Meanwhile until a minute ago, Sydney had "enjoyed" its longest warm spell EVER — culminating in yesterday's 42.6 degrees C with a night at a record temperature above 30 degrees C, a 33 this morning now being refresh by a "cool" (27 degrees C?) weather change...

a cool blow...

A cool southerly change has blown into Sydney, marking the end of a record-breaking heatwave.

It has been a week of blistering temperatures, with the mercury climbing above 30 degrees Celcius each day.

Yesterday's temperature broke a 38-year-old record, with Sydneysiders sweating through their hottest night.

At midnight the mercury reached a high of 33.6C.

The overnight low dipped to a record 26.4C, which is one degree higher than the last record in 1973.

But a southerly buster arrived in the city around 2:00pm, bringing temperatures down by almost 10C in an hour.

The heatwave has been the longest spell of 30C days in more than 100 years of records.

Forecasters say it is too early to say whether more heatwaves will hit the city this summer.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/06/3131223.htm?section=justin

relief after hottest night in history...

hottest night

from the Sydney Morning Herald...

''One degree might not sound like a whole lot, but it is very significant,'' said Alex Krisman, a Weatherzone meteorologist. ''These records can often be beaten by a fraction of a degree.''

see toon at top... As one can note, there are some discrepancies between various measurements (see two items above this one). These variations come from various locations of measuring devices. Thus the Observatory Hill measurements are significant. Observatory Hill information is usually "conservative" as the location is exposed to "cooler" sea breezes that may not affect say a location a kilometre inland.

insuring global warming...

 

For truth on climate change, listen to the insurers

Mark Hendrickx (Letters, February 7) attempts to characterise those who accept the reality of anthropogenic climate change and increased extreme weather events as Chicken Littles, ignorant of history.

As a scientist (albeit not a climate scientist), Hendrickx should appreciate that there are statistical outliers in any natural system, and that weather events such as those of 1918 do not contradict the overall increase in global temperatures. Nor do they diminish the reality that there has been a substantial and statistically significant increase in the incidence of catastrophic weather events such as this year's flooding, cyclone Yasi and the 2009 Victorian bushfires.

Recently, Swiss Re, the world's largest reinsurer, issued a fact sheet (readily available online), Climate sceptic arguments and their scientific background, which surveys the evidence and research. It concluded that heatwaves, hurricanes, cyclones and heavy rainstorms - all predicted under current climate models - have indeed become more frequent.

Swiss Re is a corporation concerned only with its economic bottom line. As a reinsurer, it bears the brunt of increased claims, and thus its executives are highly motivated to understand the science and employ the most sophisticated statistical analyses to the data.

Accusing them of being hysterics with ''no appreciation of history'' sounds a little hollow.

Margaret Morgan Mount Kuring-gai

http://www.smh.com.au/national/letters/voters-feel-insulted-as-labor-rolls-out-pork-barrel-20110207-1ak24.html

is darwin the next?...

A cyclone warning has been declared for Darwin and the Top End, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The warning covers coastal areas from the Daly River mouth to Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A cyclone watch is current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth and Point Stuart to Cape Don.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/15/3139674.htm

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At this stage, it seems innocuous... But the high surface temperature of the sea near Darwin despite cloud cover during the monsoon season is a worry. At present there are pockets of surface water at nearly 34 degrees C, while the land during the day would go higher than 55 degrees C, in full sun. During the night the sea would retain the heat (here measured as an average over 6 days AND night) while the land surface might drop below 20 degrees C. These temperature "differentials" can create enormous air masses movements. Should these air masses start to spin around a Coriolis axis and a cyclone could be on its way. The Google Earth weather shows such a spin is brewing... It's a matter of time between landing and the increase of the spin... Should the air mass spin hit land earlier, then the wind will be strong but not devastating. Should the air mass spin hit land later, it may have time to fully develop into a fully fledged cyclone.... Keep you posted. see toon at top.

meanwhile, south of the northern winterland...

The heaviest snowfall in more than a century on South Korea's east coast is causing widespread chaos.

Hundreds of houses have collapsed under the weight of the snow. One newspaper described it as a snow bomb.

The South Korean government has deployed 12,000 soldiers to rescue stranded residents.

The worst weather has been in Gangwon province. Weather experts say there will be more snowfall in the area in the coming hours.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12445509

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see toon at top...

a nasty little carlos...

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is bearing down on Darwin after a night of wild weather that left houses damaged and streets flooded.

School has been cancelled for the day and Darwin Airport remains closed after the Bureau of Meteorology declared a cyclone warning for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

At least one house was destroyed overnight by a fallen tree, while an ambulance transporting a patient to Royal Darwin Hospital was crushed by a tree, but there were no serious injuries.

Emergency services crews received more than 2,000 calls for help, including reports of 91 trees and 31 powerlines down and several cars abandoned in rising water.

In the Darwin suburb of Marrara, a record 435 millimetres of rain fell in 24 hours.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/16/3140154.htm

see toon at top... and comment two up from this one.

balls...

The TV presenter Johnny Ball, credited with popularising maths and science among a generation of children in the 1970s to 1990s with TV programmes such as Johnny Ball Reveals All, claims environmentalists have wrecked his career since he began rubbishing the science behind climate change.

...

Ball explains that he takes his climate denialist stance for the sake of the children, who he believes are being "frightened to an alarming degree" by what he sees as environmentalists' "alarmism".

"Several films have been introduced into schools which imply that the earth may not be able to sustain human life in around 39 years' time, which is unscientific, alarmist nonsense," he says.

"It is suggesting to them that the previous generation have ruined the planet, and unless they switch lights off we could all be going to hell in a handcart." 


Read more: http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/75298,people,news,greens-target-climate-change-denier-johnny-ball#ixzz1EUgzt38Q

 

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Gus: I am ignorant of Johnny ball's work, but in fairness, I think that i would be surprised if some proper scientists really pushed the line of "hell in a handcart". Stupid greenies, religious nuts or anti-global warming sneaks may have produced these silly films (which I haven't see so I can't comment if Johnny is pulling our leg or not)...

On the other side, to say — that releasing an extra 2 ppm per annum of CO2 in the atmosphere is not going to have an effect — is fraudulent.

which came first: the cheese or the egg?...

2052

A growing, more affluent population competing for ever scarcer resources could make for an "unrecognisable" world by 2050, researchers say.

The United Nations has predicted the global population will reach seven billion this year, and climb to nine billion by 2050, "with almost all of the growth occurring in poor countries, particularly Africa and South Asia", John Bongaarts of the non-profit Population Council said.

To feed all those mouths, "we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8000", said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

"By 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognisable if current trends continue," Clay said.

The swelling population will exacerbate problems, such as resource depletion, said John Casterline, director of the Initiative in Population Research at Ohio State University.

But incomes are also expected to rise over the next 40 years - tripling globally and quintupling in developing nations - and add more strain to global food supplies.

People tend to move up the food chain as their incomes rise, consuming more meat than they might have when they made less money, the experts said.

It takes about 3.4kg of grain to produce half a kilo of meat, and about 1.36kg to 1.81kg grain to produce half a kilo of cheese or eggs, experts said.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/science/earth-could-be-unrecognisable-by-2050-20110221-1b1dl.html

carlos capers...

Communities in Western Australia's North West are battening down with Cyclone Carlos expected to intensify overnight.

There has already been storm damage in Karratha with residents describing chaotic scenes after a mini-tornado ripped through the town.

The 10 minute weather event, which the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed was connected to the cyclone, hit just before 3:00 pm. (ASWT)

Business owner Glenda Jones describes the damage in the centre of town.

"The whole building started to shake and then we came outside and there'd been cars lifted up and smashed together," she said.

"Probably four, five, six courses of bricks have fallen out of the building next door and smashed onto my vehicles, the hotel's got a lot of damage to it as well as power lines down everywhere."

Ms Jones says there were pieces of fencing and roof sheets flying through the air.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/21/3144773.htm?section=justin

solar flares...

Havoc wreaked by a solar storm – such as the one that occurred last week – could be equivalent to a "global hurricane Katrina" that would cost up to $2 trillion dollars in damage to communications satellites, electric power grids and GPS navigation systems, scientists said yesterday.

Thursday's solar flare was the biggest for four years and ejected billions of tons of matter travelling at a million miles per hour towards Earth.

When it hit our magnetic field it generated magnetic storms and power surges which disrupted communications and grounded flights

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/solar-storm-could-cause-more-damage-than-hurricane-katrina-2221706.html

meanwhile the cyclone season is still on...

Tropical Cyclone Atu is a category 1 cyclone in Fijian waters near Vanuatu.

Atu is currently moving slowly south-southwest and intensifying but is expected to remain at category 1 for the next three days.

Computer models predict that the cyclone will turn towards the southeast and so is not currently a threat to Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi also developed over Fiji before intensifying to a category 5 cyclone when it reached Australia

http://weather.couriermail.com.au/news/tropical-cyclone-atu-develops-in-fiji-waters/16446