Tuesday 26th of November 2024
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sadr's uprising .....

sadr's uprising .....

from the Center for American Progress ….. 

When Gen. David Petraeus testifies to Congress in a few weeks, he is expected to tout recent "security gains" from the U.S. surge in Iraq as a reason to "pause" troop reductions.  

But violence this week across southern Iraq is pouring cold water on these tactical gains, erupting in several Iraqi cities including Baghdad, where "rockets pounded the fortified Green Zone area."  

"Thousands of supporters of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr marched in Baghdad" today, calling for "the downfall of the U.S.-backed government." In a battle in oil-rich Basra, a bomb blast destroyed an oil pipeline, Sadr's Shiite bloc walked out of parliament Tuesday to protest the crackdown, and a Baghdad security plan spokesperson was kidnapped today.  

This anger threatens to end Sadr's pivotal cease fire, credited with much of the reduced violence across Iraq.

As British Army Commander Lt. Gen. Graeme Lamb concluded Tuesday, "To suggest that good intentions will cross fundamental cultural, social and religious differences and win over a damaged population is at best dangerous and wishful thinking." As Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis explained, the violence "brings into the open this long-running intra-Shi'a civil war." The fighting across southern Iraq has pitted Sadr's Madhi Army against Abdul Aziz Al Hakim's Islamic Supreme Council (ISCI) of the so-called Badr Brigade, which has support from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Adding another layer to just one component of Iraqs many civil wars, "a third Shi'a faction, the Fadhila movement, is also engaged in the struggle for power in Basra," Katulis writes. The result is a show of force from Sadr. 

"If these violations continue, a huge popular eruption will take place that no power on Earth can stop," said Nassar al-Rubaei, leader of the Sadrist bloc in parliament. Most ironically, if Iraqi security forces and their militia allies prevail, Iran's hand in Iraq will be heavily bolstered. "The Badr Organisation and the ISCI had always been and remained the most pro-Iranian political-military forces in Iraq, having been established, trained and funded by the IRGC from Shiite exiles in Iran during the Iran-Iraq war," notes journalist Gareth Porter. 

The Bush administration has tried to simplify the violence into a government versus militia struggle. "The Prime Minister has gone to Basra....to re-establish the rule of law," said National Security adviser Steven Hadley yesterday. But as analyst Anthony Cordesman noted, it is not that simple. A better explanation is that the Iraqi government -- allied with ISCI militias -- is trying to suppress its political enemies. "[T]his is really a fairly transparent partisan effort by the Supreme Council dressed in government uniforms to fight the Sadrists and Fadila," said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group. "Maliki in alliance with ISCI are doing their best to marginalize their political enemies locally – in preparation for local elections in October 2008," argued historian Reidar Visser.  

The result?  

"It seems far more likely that even the best case outcome is going be one that favors Iraqracy over democracy," says Cordesman. Furthermore, this is not a hands-off situation. The U.S. is providing air support -- "help just in case they need it," explained White House Press Secretary Perino. 

The administration is trying to spin the new activity as a "by-product of the success of the surge." President Bush even called it a "positive moment" today. But the violence shows the surge's failure to contain Iraq's vicious internal power struggles. One only has to look at British military activity in southern Iraq in 2006 and 2007 (Britain withdrew from Iraq last year). "At first, there were signs of progress" such as diminished violence, but local militias "were not defeated; they went underground or, more often, were absorbed into existing security forces," noted Robert Malley and Peter Harling at the time. Ironically, "heightened pressure" on Sadr "is likely to trigger both fierce Sadrist resistance in Baghdad and an escalating intra-Shiite civil war in the south."  

Tuesday's violence "looks like a preview of what will happen as we approach provincial elections in the fall," Hiltermann added. New Iraqi legislation has also stirred anger from Sadr, whose followers complain that too few "have been granted amnesty under a new law designed to free thousands held by the Iraqis and Americans."

beware dangerous old men .....

Violence continues across southern Iraq today, as radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is threatening to end his crucial cease-fire by calling for the “downfall of the U.S.-backed government.” 

In response, the administration has gone on a desperate PR blitz to label renewed violence in Iraq as “byproduct of the success of the surge.” “It's "what critics have wanted to see," said White House Press Secretary Dana Perino, calling it a struggle led by Iraqi security forces.  

Today — as rockets rain down on the Green Zone & two American soldiers died — bushit cast the activity as a “very positive moment” in an interview with the Times of UK. 

[Bushit] backed the Iraqi Government's decision to “respond forcefully” to the spiralling violence by "criminal elements" & Shia extremists in Basra. "It was a very positive moment in the development of a sovereign nation that is willing to take on elements that believe they are beyond the law," bushit intoned. 

It's hard to see what the crazy little war criminal sees as positive. The explosion that burst an oil pipeline in Basra today? Tens of thousands of Shiite protesters in Baghad? A kidnapped “civilian spokesman for the Baghdad security operation?” 

In reality, the violence is undoing the very goals of the great deciderer’s surge. Iraqi forces aren’t trying to restore “the law,” as bushit thinks, but are trying to do the opposite — suppress its political enemies before the October elections, historian Reidar Vissar noted. Most ironically, if US-backed efforts “succeed,” Iran's hand in Iraq will be strengthened. IPS’ Gareth Porter explains:  

The Badr Organisation & the ISCI had always been & remain the most pro-Iranian political-military forces in Iraq, having been established, trained & funded by the [Iranian Revolutionary Guard] from Shiite exiles in Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. 

Bushit’s comments are reminiscent of former White House Press Secretary Tony Snow’s remarks last June, casting skyrocketing violence across Iraq as “things moving towards success…signs of success.” 

The shrub says the current offensive against the Sadrist movement is a great development for Iraq. 

In the real world, there are widespread reports from Iraqi sources of large numbers of civilian casualties in Basra, Hilla, Kut, Diwaniya, Baghdad & Karbala. By Midday Wednesday, Baghdad hospitals reported receiving at least 240 wounded civilians. Iraq's healthcare system has shut down, again, in the face of this latest round of violence.  

Part of the reason can be found in a report issued last week by the International Red Cross. In 1990, Iraq had 34,000 practicing physicians. Since then, 20,000 doctors have fled the country, the lion's share since the 2003 US invasion. Over the past five years, 2,200 more have been killed. At least another 250 have been kidnapped.As with the 2004 offensive in Fallujah, local Iraqis in Baghdad, where American troops are substantially engaged in the conflict, report that US forces are not allowing medical personnel to treat the wounded. Iraqi newsbloggers at Gorilla's Guides report: 

"The Americans continue to prevent both doctors & ambulances from entering Sadr city. 

"They are also preventing ambulances from leaving the city. 

"Normally very reliable sources say the Americans have fired on ambulances & other vehicles trying to take wounded out of the city." 

Whilst these are unconfirmed reports & need to be viewed as such, if true, they constitute a serious war crime. 

Meanwhile, Just like Vice President Last Throes, St. McCain doesn't give a rat's ass what the American people think about his awesome war: 

Returning from his eighth trip to Iraq, McCain didn't back down on his promise to see the war through, despite yesterday's tragic milestone of 4,000 deaths.  

"We're succeeding. I don't care what anybody says. I've seen the facts on the ground," the Arizona senator insisted a day after a roadside bomb in Baghdad killed four US soldiers & rockets pounded the US-protected Green Zone there, & a wave of attacks left at least 61 Iraqis dead nationwide. 

Recent polls indicate that over 60% of the American people 1) oppose Bushit/McCain's handling of the war, 2) want our troops out within a year, 3) think the war wasn't worth fighting &, screw you St. McCain 4) think neither side is winning.  

To summarize, the American people hate the war and want it over, yesterday. But St. McCain doesn't care. And he continues to dishonestly talk about "success" when even Petraeus admits the surge has objectively failed.  

The arrogance is staggering.