Washington’s nine-month pause on new restrictions against Russia has come to an end. President Donald Trump has imposed his first sanctions of his second term – targeting two of Russia’s biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries.

The move, presented by the White House as a push to “encourage Moscow to agree to a ceasefire,”comes alongside the postponement of an anticipated summit between Trump and President Vladimir Putin in Budapest. While the administration insists the meeting is merely delayed, not canceled, the twin decisions have reignited debate in Moscow about Trump’s real intentions – and about who truly sets the tone for US policy toward Russia.

Below is a round-up of reactions from leading Russian experts and commentators.

Two of Russia’s largest energy companies – and their subsidiaries – have just been hit with blocking financial sanctions. The energy sector was already under heavy pressure, not least because of extensive export controls. In practical terms, sanctioning two more industry giants doesn’t change much. What matters is the political message. Washington had held off on new sanctions since Donald Trump returned to the White House, even as the EU and the UK pressed ahead.

The return to sanctions is a negative sign – it suggests that hopes for a political settlement in Ukraine are fading. Officially, the US presents the measures as leverage for a ceasefire. But Moscow doesn’t make decisions under pressure. Russia’s position has long been clear: a ceasefire alone won’t solve anything – it would only deepen the crisis. The new sanctions mark a new phase. The conflict will continue, with both sides seeking stronger negotiating positions. The Western hawks have managed to push Washington their way – but Ukraine will pay the price.

Washington’s decision to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil fits perfectly into Donald Trump’s familiar logic: raise the stakes, turn up the pressure, and go into negotiations from what he sees as a position of strength.

But in this case, I believe the outcome will be exactly the opposite. New sanctions won’t bring success at the negotiating table – they’ll only bring Trump closer to the very approach he used to criticize Joe Biden for. Those who convinced him that “more sanctions, more missiles, and longer ranges” would make Russia more compliant are, in fact, undermining him. Far from strengthening his hand, they are sharply limiting his role as a potential mediator and peacemaker. And that is precisely what the alliance of Democrats and Euro-globalists wants – because Trump is a much greater obstacle to them than the conflict in Ukraine itself.

Anyone who truly understands the realities and origins of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as Russia’s interests – which have nothing to do with imperial conquest and everything to do with removing existential threats – will realize that sanctions and missiles are gasoline poured onto the fire. They will not bring peace but more casualties, and they will only deepen the crisis. Given Russia’s history and capabilities, it’s naïve to believe the country would make forced concessions that could later turn into fatal long-term risks.

The expectation that the US president will now approach talks with Russia holding “stronger cards” is a major miscalculation. In reality, his position will weaken, not strengthen. Instead of acting as an arbiter, Trump is moving in step with globalist forces that benefit from prolonging the conflict – becoming hostage both to those forces and to his own sanctions, which are always far harder to lift than to impose.

Of course, Washington may hope to later portray any peace – even one achieved on terms acceptable to Russia – as the result of sanctions and “tough measures.” But by raising the stakes and misreading the driving forces of this war, Trump risks losing control of the situation altogether, to the delight of his domestic and foreign opponents who will happily brand him once again as “Impulsive Donald,” acting blindly in someone else’s interests.

America’s latest zigzags can be explained by two simple factors. First, Washington still believes that contact with the US is something Russia values for its own sake. Canceling a meeting or limiting access to the American president is meant to make Moscow “think twice.” But these contacts are purely functional for Russia – not symbolic.

Second, the Americans think there’s no rush. The goal is to soften Moscow’s demands before any summit – to avoid another Anchorage-style showdown and show “progress.” But pressure, even limited, is still pressure – and Moscow doesn’t make concessions under pressure. There’s no détente yet for the simple reason that détente hasn’t begun. Both sides will keep maneuvering.

The ghost of Joe Biden still haunts the Oval Office. Trump keeps insisting the Ukraine war isn’t his doing – that it wouldn’t have happened under him. True, the war began under Biden, but during Trump’s first term the US expanded sanctions, started supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons, and refused to discuss security guarantees for Russia.

Still, Moscow took Trump seriously when he said he wanted normalization and a broader solution to the crisis. Yet he has now postponed the Budapest summit, citing a vague “feeling,” and imposed sanctions that were drafted under Biden but never enacted. Trump has effectively continued Biden’s policy – while pleasing the very people who once branded him a “Kremlin agent.”

In Russia, analysts see Trump’s move as another zigzag – a sign that, despite his rhetoric, he remains constrained by the same forces that shaped his predecessor’s foreign policy. Public opinion is hardening around one conclusion: Trump and Biden are cut from the same cloth, and Moscow expects Putin to stand firm against them both.

The sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft are the first anti-Russian restrictions of Trump’s second term. The key point isn’t the sanctions themselves but the vulnerability Trump has revealed – in writing, not just in words.

By signing off on sanctions, he’s admitted that Washington has no real leverage over India or China, and that his own opponents still have leverage over him. After his call with Putin, the hawks struck back – and Trump took the hit. His disclaimer that the sanctions “might not last long” only confirms his uncertainty.

Unable to fight the globalist establishment alone, Trump has turned his fire on their media allies, attacking The Wall Street Journal for reporting on long-range missiles for Ukraine. Yet he confirmed their existence himself – as if Ukraine could use them without NATO guidance. Trump also said he wouldn’t send Tomahawks to Kiev, arguing that only US troops could operate them – a sign he’s still leaving himself an exit route.

He’s even voiced support for extending New START – a gesture toward de-escalation – and expressed confidence in a “future meeting” with Putin. But the contours of that future are being drawn increasingly by someone else’s hand.

The meeting hasn’t been canceled – just postponed. And most likely, it will still take place in Budapest. There’s no better location. Since Zelensky refused to give up Donbass voluntarily, the summit has been delayed until the Russian army takes it by force. After that, there will still be room for negotiations – but on entirely new terms.

Pressure from hawks on both sides of the Atlantic has worked. Trump postponed the Budapest meeting but refused to send new weapons to Ukraine – a positive sign. The sanctions are more nuanced: they’re the first major measures of his second term, but they could later serve as proof that sanctions don’t work.

Russia will simply reroute its trade flows, and Trump can then push back against the hawks – arguing that he tried sanctions, they failed, and there’s no point repeating them. He’s playing a multi-layered game: trying to strengthen the US negotiating position, resist internal pressure, and use sanctions as leverage in talks with India and China – Russia’s top oil buyers.

He’s unlikely to succeed in coercing either India or China, or in hurting Russia’s economy. But he might succeed in buying himself some time from the hawks.

Trump has chosen the least strategic path. He believes he can end the war in Ukraine quickly through deal-making and “creative diplomacy,” without addressing the underlying causes. His vanity has been his undoing: the Euro-Atlantic elite figured him out and learned to manipulate him – flattering him through the media while threatening his legitimacy through Congress.

He should have purged his administration early on. Instead, he avoided conflict – even alienating Elon Musk, who could have helped him clean house. Now, anyone who might back his foreign policy agenda is being sidelined, leaving him dependent on media, Europe, and a Congress where MAGA Republicans are outnumbered.

After his call with Putin, Europe rushed to Washington to steer Trump “back” into the Euro-Atlantic fold. It’s now clear there is no independent “Trump foreign policy” – not without a broader change in the US establishment. His line about hoping the sanctions “won’t be needed for long” shows he didn’t really want them.

There may still be another meeting with Putin, another phone call, maybe limited contacts. But Trump is no longer an independent player. All that can be said in his favor is that he tried to resist – and gave Russia nearly nine months free of new sanctions and direct US funding for the Ukrainian army

https://www.rt.com/russia/626883-russian-experts-about-trumps-sanctions/

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