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including well-connected influential people, trendsetters, and other social leaders....Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social and technological change within the next few years. Drawing on expert elicitation, an expert workshop, and a review of literature, which provides a comprehensive analysis on this topic, we propose concrete interventions to induce positive social tipping dynamics and a rapid global transformation to carbon-neutral societies. These social tipping interventions comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation, building carbon-neutral cities, divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels, revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels, strengthening climate education and engagement, and disclosing greenhouse gas emissions information.
Abstract Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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Established social systems, including their infrastructures, while they may partly be open to change, tend also to possess self-stabilizing mechanisms that oppose change, be it through infrastructural inertia due to investment cycles or cultural or political inertia due to deeply held traditions or power structures all representing aspects of social complexities (Fig. 2 and refs. 46and 47). For this reason, a cumulation of effects due to social contagion, repetitive nudging, or direct intervention can lead to social tipping dynamics (48). Starting points for such cumulations of effects are here called STIs. Naturally, their existence, nature, and point of departure are a function of the cumulated history of the respective social system and, in that sense, STIs and social tipping dynamics are path dependent. Following Rockström et al. (6), in order to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement’s goals and to avoid higher levels of global warming at the end of this century that would imply crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system (27), global anthropogenic carbon emissions would need to be halved every decade, achieving a peak in 2020 and then steadily decreasing to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Achieving net zero global emissions around 2050 is necessary for there to be a significant probability of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the century (1). To ensure that the social tipping dynamics identified in this study are compatible with these constraints, we impose the following filtering criteria: F1. The time needed to trigger the tipping should not exceed ∼15 y, and the time needed to observe a qualitative change at the whole system level should not exceed ∼30 y (Fig. 1). F2. Since abrupt social changes have historically often been associated with social unrest, war, or even collapse (49), human intervention and its foreseeable effects should here be explicitly compatible with the Sustainable Development Goals (50), in the sense of positive social tipping dynamics (34). Finally, due to the networked and multilevel character of the social system (51), we also ask about the feedback mechanisms connecting and potentially mutually reinforcing the identified candidates for STEs and STIs. Results Candidates for STEs from Expert Elicitation. Both natural and social systems are characterized by a high level of complexity and are linked by coevolutionary dynamics (52). Isolating the elements of such systems is difficult. Although we provided our respondents with a written definition of a STE, most of the online survey participants referred to what we define as STIs. On the basis of the responses, 12 groups of candidates for STEs could be identified, each referring to a distinctive control parameter (Table 2).
The critical threshold of the control parameter needed to be crossed in order to trigger the tipping process was in most of groups not quantified by the experts but described qualitatively. The STP was often referred to as the point when a certain belief, behavior, or technology, spreads from a minor tendency to a major practice. Documented instances of technology and business solutions show that a 17 to 20% market or population share can be sufficient to cross the tipping point and scale up to become the dominant pattern (53).
Some authors, however, argue that it must be the “right” share of population, including well-connected influential people, trendsetters, and other types of social leaders with a high degree of agency (38, 54). In other cases, the experts referred to the STP that would be achieved if the price of fossil-fuel–free products and services falls below that of those products and services based on fossil fuels. Table 2 presents an overview of expert elicitation results.
READ MORE: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900577117
WE'RE IN TROUBLE !!!!!!! SEE ALSO: emissions and offsetsYOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.
Gus Leonisky POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.
HYPOCRISY ISN’T ONE OF THE TEN COMMANDMENTS SINS. HENCE ITS POPULARITY IN THE ABRAHAMIC TRADITIONS…
PLEASE DO NOT BLAME RUSSIA IF WW3 STARTS. BLAME YOURSELF.
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How reassuring it is to be a mining magnate in Australia. Far more significant than royalty, such figures are the unelected captains of industry who know that governments will do whatever they can to accommodate their wishes and whims. True, the rhetoric might sometimes be sharp and seemingly at odds, especially when it comes to that great irritant known as climate change, but the business of Australia is mining, and so it remains.
For that reason, the portfolio of environment minister has been a misnomer, hovering between vanishing non-entity and irritating court jester. Mimicking those climate change conferences that take place in oil and gas producing states, such an official’s role is to manage continuing mine approvals and their extensions while proclaiming the march of renewable sources of energy toward a decarbonised economy.
Australia’s current Environment Minister, Tanya Plibersek, has gone the way of others, making sure to slip in a few more mining approvals before the festive season in the hope that few would notice. The manoeuvre only makes sense by understanding that an Australian environment minister tends to be the fossil fuel industry’s closeted defender in government, the emissions protector at the cabinet meeting, the shield to respectable polluting. Those appointed to that role know the prime minister thinks little of them. The minister, in turn, also knows that the machinery at the disposal of the office is about as impressive as the country’s broadband system.
What makes Plibersek’s behaviour particularly galling of late is her willingness to jest more than usual. This may have been aggravated by last month’s personal intervention by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to sink a deal she personally brokered with the Greens and independent Senator David Pocock to create a federal environment protection agency.
In a late November press release, we have her trumpeting Australia’s move “from the margins of international environmental leadership – right to the front”. (Front of whom, one asks?) There are party political statements filled with little substance. The Albanese Government was “helping nature thrive”. Greater protections were being afforded the environment. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework had been agreed upon.
Plibersek’s inner jester was again manifest on 19 December, posting on the X platform that the Labor government was “turning Australia into a renewable superpower”. What really suggested she had taken leave of her senses was another post mocking former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott, standing beside the current Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, in a 2014 shot with this disciplinary caption: “It’s 2014. These guys approved eight new coal mines and were laughing about climate change.” She goes on to “fast forward” matters a decade. “In 2024, Labor has approved 0 new coal mines.”
This was a jest with little purchase. For one, Plibersek had approved three coal mine expansions in September this year, a move she suggested in lawyerly fashion could not be regarded as “new projects” so much as extensions. These decisions, she justified curtly, had been made “in accordance with the facts and the national environment law”. The Australian Conservation Foundation preferred to remind her that the three projects, all in New South Wales, would generate more than 1.3 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in the course of their operation.
These extensions, it is also worth considering, are not recommended by the International Energy Agency if global warming is to be limited to the magic figure of 1.5°C. In its 2021 report, the agency envisages a “Net-Zero Emissions Scenario by 2050” in which fossil fuel use will fall “drastically”. There would be no need either for new oil and natural gas fields beyond current approvals, or new coal mines or mine extensions. Dare one but dream.
What made matters even worse was that 19 December was a day that saw the approval of three mining projects: the Caval Ridge Horse Pit Extension at the Bowen Basin in Queensland; the Lake Vermont Meadowbrook Coal Mine Project, also in Queensland; and the New South Wales Boggabri Coal Mine, given a State Significant Development status.
The measure enraged the Australia Institute think tank sufficiently to encourage the start of a glum petition. “While our leaders claim that Australia is on track to meet its climate targets of 43% emissions reduction by 2030, and net zero by 2050, Australia Institute research shows that when land sector emissions are removed from the modelling, Australia’s emissions are actually increasing.”
In a media release, the institute pointed out that the three mines, in the current state of operation, “were already so large that they could almost cover greater Sydney, or most Australian cities”. The body’s research director, Rod Campbell, found it all distasteful. “Putting this out just before Christmas is a classic ‘taking out the trash’ tactic. While Australians are trying to enjoy the end of the year, the minister is doing the bidding of multinational coal companies.”
The Climate Council was also baffled. Climate Councillor Lesley Hughes, with mighty authority, condemned the decision. “Our atmosphere doesn’t care if this coal is for steel or power – it’s all heating our planet and driving climate pollution. Burning coal fuels the climate crisis, worsening bushfires, floods and heatwaves that devastate our communities. This decision flies in the face of science, common sense, global responsibility and our duty to protect our kids’ future.”
Plibersek is unlikely to be ignorant of any of this. But like her predecessors, she conducts policy from a cage of constraint. When so stifled and confined, the options narrow: to vanish, or become a jester. And jester she has become.
https://johnmenadue.com/jesting-on-the-environment-australian-mining-gets-a-present/
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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.
Gus Leonisky
POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.
HYPOCRISY ISN’T ONE OF THE TEN COMMANDMENTS SINS.
HENCE ITS POPULARITY IN THE ABRAHAMIC TRADITIONS…
PLEASE DO NOT BLAME RUSSIA IF WW3 STARTS. BLAME YOURSELF.
consummators....
FROM CHARLIE HEBDO....
The endless family meals and the joyful dark comedy of gift-giving are soon to return, to the great delight of children... and "kidults", those big kids who have remained fans of stuffed animals, Pokémon cards and other Star Wars figurines despite the end of their carefree days. Above all, a worrying phenomenon of collective regression carefully orchestrated by the toy industry.
It's overflowing everywhere. In the golden aisles that the horde of tourists and consumerist sheep roam in department stores, it's dripping with perfume and bling-bling. And we'd almost be jealous of this leather goods store that claims more living space than its future buyers. So, one week before the start of the Christian festivities, welcome to the "paradiso" of some - we catch in the crowd - and the nightmare of others: at the Galeries Lafayette, boulevard Haussmann in Paris. A place of all budgetary excesses and capitalistic audacity.
To discover the latest, go to the fifth floor, in the "Jellycat patisserie", installed for 5 months among the stuffed animals and Legos. They serve éclairs, strawberry tarts and mousse baguettes in an electric blue Parisian bakery decor. In the middle of the stand, three employees are even deployed - not to cash you or advise you on their latest novelty - but to play a little comedy: arriving in front of one of these "patissiers" in an apron, you present your order on a small piece of paper; he grabs a stuffed animal, transfers it to a mixing bowl and offers to mix it with a whisk; he then mimes decorating your 40 euro delicacy with whipped cream using a fake piping bag; and ends by wrapping it in bakery paper. A joyful plaything in short. Until we realize that all the actors in this marketing play are none other than adults. Enough to tip into dystopian.
Foam baguettes
"Indeed, our customers are overwhelmingly adults who buy for themselves or as gifts to other adults," confirms Jennifer Thomas, the manager of the team of fake pastry chefs. And be careful not to upset these big kids too much. A soft strawberry tart in her hand, Pascale, 38, is on the defensive: "There is not necessarily a reason why it attracts us. I do not understand why certain objects would be reserved for children. It does not mean anything, we too can want to make collections, we can want tenderness. It is not because at 15 years old some drop their toys and become serious that we should all do the same," she unpacks. After all, who said that a stuffed animal couldn’t move people once they’re past the childhood stage? “We can see that we have a real impact on customers. I have a lady who once cried during our performance. We’re here to convey emotions. Today, we’re in a hyperanxiety-provoking period where people need lightness and softness,” assures Jennifer Thomas, convinced that it’s in the children’s section of Galeries Lafayette that they’ll find them.
What if our ills had exhausted all therapeutic remedies? What if there were only toys left? In any case, this is what the small business of toy merchants has been trying to make us swallow for several years, hidden behind a window of nostalgia or well-being - Pokémon cards or coloring books of your choice. As a result, the market of those now nicknamed "kidults" - a contraction of "child" and "adult" in English - now represents 29% of the turnover of the toy sector, according to the latest study by the Federation of Specialist Toy and Children's Products Retailers (FCJPE). "This is the great hope of childcare brands. Because the drop in the birth rate has had a very strong impact on the sector, kidults could well take over," even analyzes Jean Kimpe, general delegate of the FCJPE. Especially since the market is often more high-end than its child equivalent.
And the worst thing is probably to have fallen for it. Who would still be surprised to see a big fifty-year-old teenager fall for the latest Star Wars collector Lego box or the latest trendy candy pink plush toy? Not a hint of pedophilia on the horizon, fashion has been there.
And social networks too. Because behind the Jellycat pastry shop, there is, of course, big money, but above all a vast PR operation on Facebook, Instagram or TikTok. "It has become a real community. People who come here know about all the new products and stock shortages before they even arrive at our place", Jennifer Thomas still hallucinates. The "rather inexplicable phenomenon of playground successes" - according to Jean Kimpe - thus deported to the internet, where you can accumulate millions of views by sharing the latest addition to your collection of plush pastries on video. The "kidults" plotting online instead of meeting around hopscotch.
This is the basic logic of capitalism
So, just as there are footballers and marble collectors, there are also toy clans among regressive adults. On Rue Dante, in the fifth arrondissement of Paris, we come across a new species: figurine lovers. In front of the maximalist window of Pulp’s Toys, a specialist in Japanese goodies and other Marvel dolls, Alix and Lisa, both in their twenties, unwrap a “smiski”. A small phosphorescent collectible figurine that they discovered on TikTok. And there are plenty more in the window: Hello Kittys, disguised cats, etc., they show us, stars in their eyes. "We're a bit backward, I think we still haven't grown up," they admit at first, before trying to find an explanation for their madness: "I'm studying psychology and it's true that I didn't have a great childhood so, in a way, I'm making up for what I didn't know before," Alix begins. "My father died too!" Lisa continues, a smile on her lips. As if you had to justify having cracks when you're caught with a toy in your hand, with no children around.
David*, 57, doesn’t need to do that much. Passionate about Goldorak since he discovered the Japanese theme song as a child, he spends his free time watching for new Actaruses that are popping up in his neighborhood. “I have static ones, ones that propel themselves, ones that shoot lasers, etc.,” he lists. “I admit, I’m still a child deep down, it’s my passion.” And for this kind of nostalgic oaf, Samuel Coavoux, a sociologist specializing in culture and video games, has an explanation. No doubt, he says, our society has more tools “to satisfy its nostalgia.” No doubt the success of “playfulness” and the “gamification” of society have something to do with our sudden taste for board games. But the sociologist mainly points the finger at the cultural industry. “It’s the basic logic of capitalism.” A company like Disney has an interest in conquering the largest share of the market and there comes a point where you can no longer send children to the cinema ten times a month. However, until recently, we targeted children, we served them children's content and when they became adults, we targeted their children. Now, the industry has understood that this cut it off from 90% of the market, so it continues to follow its fans who have grown up by showering them with series on darker or romantic themes," he analyses.
But too late, the damage is already done and the personal development lobby has already adopted the benefits of play for adults, urging us to "cultivate our inner child". As if a good puzzle or coloring page could make us forget that Bayrou is Prime Minister or that Mayotte has been blown away. But, of course, you will choose a 1,000-piece puzzle and a level 5 coloring page, just to reassure yourself that you have grown up a little despite everything.
(link caché)
TRANSLATION BY JULES LETAMBOUR.....
READ FROM TOP.
YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.
Gus Leonisky
POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.
HYPOCRISY ISN’T ONE OF THE TEN COMMANDMENTS SINS.
HENCE ITS POPULARITY IN THE ABRAHAMIC TRADITIONS…
PLEASE DO NOT BLAME RUSSIA IF WW3 STARTS. BLAME YOURSELF.