Federal Labor has jumped ahead slightly in the latest opinion poll.

The Newspoll in today's Australian newspaper has the Opposition securing 56 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, up 1 point.

The Coalition sits on 44 per cent - 12 points behind.

The Coalition has fallen 2 points in the primary vote to 39, while Labor is up 1 point to 48.

While Labor leader Kevin Rudd has dropped 1 point as preferred prime minister, he is still well ahead with 47 per cent of the vote.

Thirty-eight per cent of those surveyed over the weekend think John Howard makes a better prime minister than Mr Rudd would.

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Gus: good. Despite some people thinking that voting for Rudd or Howard is voting for tweedledee or tweedledum, some changes need to happen. Some 38 per cent of Australia still think that invading a country for oil is okay... Some 38 per cent of people still think that lying,  fudging and noncoring is okay... Some 38 per cent of Australians still think that having 5 cents more in the pocket is better than upholding human rights... Some 38 per cent of the population still think it's okay for this country to go the Amerikan way, where the health system is down the tube, where the military practically runs the Republicans by asssociation and the Democrats to ransom — and where people are tainted for life should they be convicted of a crime, as small as it can be. For example imagine someone like Paris Hilton. Now she could be banned from voting ever after in her own country. Not even the convicts that made Australia may have got so bad a treatment.

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Michael Kirby
October 1, 2007

...

The High Court was told that a similar total exclusion in Canada was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2002. In Britain last year, a similar law was held to infringe the fundamental rights in the European Convention on Human Rights, to which Britain is required to conform.

However, in the United States, 4 million citizens, no less, are banned from voting for life.

The Federal Government defended its legislation. It argued that prisoners under sentence had temporarily forfeited their right to take part in federal elections. It said it was up to Parliament to decide such matters because of the "sovereignty" of Parliament.

However, in our country, by the wisdom of the constitution, no parliament is completely "sovereign". It is only the people who are sovereign.

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Gus: Thanks to the High Court for retaining some fairness in this country... Sanity that Rattus Rottenus Sovereingii has tried to kill since the day he entered parliament, so his Ratbag Right could rule like kings, emperors and dictators alike.

Three strikes against the polls, or the Govt is out

By Murray Goot
Grand final time ... the Coalition will be looking for a boost once the election is called.

Are the polls exaggerating Labor's lead? Will the polls show the parties drawing much closer together once John Howard calls the election? Is the Coalition's position in its own marginals looking much better than any of the national polls suggest?

If the answer to each of these questions is "yes" - indeed, if "yes" is the answer to any two of these questions - the Government is still in with a chance. However, if the answer to each of these questions is "no" - or even if this is the right answer to just one of them - Labor is likely to win by a margin that will comfortably exceed Bob Hawke's overwhelming victory in 1983.

The possibility that the polls are exaggerating Labor's lead cannot be discounted. Most commentators seem to think that because Labor is well ahead in all the polls - by 12 percentage points, two-party preferred (in today's Newspoll) - the running average can't be far wrong. This is especially true, the standard argument runs, because Labor has been a long way ahead for such a long time. But the conclusion doesn't follow from the premise.

It is perfectly possible that all the polls are exaggerating Labor's position and underestimating the Coalition's. Nor is this just a theoretical possibility. In 1980, the final figures from all four national polls (McNair Anderson, Morgan, Saulwick and Spectrum) underestimated how well the Coalition government would do and overestimated Labor. All the polls pointed to a Labor victory. But, in a debacle for the polling industry, Labor lost.

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Gus: Just kick Howard out.... 

From The New Yorker

Shifting Targets
The Administration’s plan for Iran.
by Seymour M. Hersh October 8, 2007

In a series of public statements in recent months, President Bush and members of his Administration have redefined the war in Iraq, to an increasing degree, as a strategic battle between the United States and Iran. “Shia extremists, backed by Iran, are training Iraqis to carry out attacks on our forces and the Iraqi people,” Bush told the national convention of the American Legion in August. “The attacks on our bases and our troops by Iranian-supplied munitions have increased. . . . The Iranian regime must halt these actions. And, until it does, I will take actions necessary to protect our troops.” He then concluded, to applause, “I have authorized our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran’s murderous activities.”

The President’s position, and its corollary—that, if many of America’s problems in Iraq are the responsibility of Tehran, then the solution to them is to confront the Iranians—have taken firm hold in the Administration.

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Gus: so the US president would like to bomb Iran... Of course it will be a strategic success, a "mishun accumplished", except more innocent people will get killed and, as well, the sting would reinforce the enemy status of the US in the eyes of many people... creating more hatred and more grief... More "Mishuns" to be "accumplished"...

Go ahead, Bush, see if we care... One day you'll become an old fart who vanishes in the dustbin of history... May that day comes sooner than you wish. Meantime stop spilling more blood in your little deadly games. May your kids discover the real mad man you are...