Wednesday 27th of November 2024

how can australia exit the american empire hegemonic chaos?....

Some US commentators are advocating a recalibration of America’s full-spectrum global posture, while others, including Condoleezza Rice, energetically beg to differ – naturally for the good of the world.

 

American reflections on global hegemony    By Richard Cullen

 

One apparent example from the first category (recalibration) is a recent essay in the journal, Foreign Policy, by Michael HirshHe reviews two books written, we are told, by close advisers of the Democratic Party’s new presidential candidate, Kamala Harris (replacing the 81-year-old, Joe Biden, who was ardently persuaded to step aside).

First there is: “An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for 21st Century Order” co-written by Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper published in 2020.  Next: “Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East”, written by Philip Gordon, published in the same year.

Hirsh notes how, previously, Harris essentially invoked:

“The same hegemonic world view that every American President has embraced since World War II.  As Harris put it in a 2023 speech — quoting a favourite phrase of Biden’s — ‘a strong America remains indispensable to the world’.”

Now, though, he suggests, real change may be afoot, arguing that:

“The United States may be downgraded to a humbler status if Harris is elected president in November, based on the thinking of her chief advisers”.

Yet Lissner and Rapp-Hooper still argue that, as the Western-crusading, “unipolar” moment wanes:

“A new, more open system would still have to guarantee an ’accessible global commons’ where the US would remain ‘indispensable’ as it is the only country that can guarantee such an open system.” 

As such a system would have to accommodate “autocratic and illiberal regimes” it would need American policing, according to this argument. For the rest of the world — and especially the Global South — this claim, today, stands eviscerated. What American global-policing credibility is left after anyone seriously considers how the US has “policed” Israel as it prosecutes its vengeful, unending, brutal Gaza genocide?

Would a Trump presidency make any difference?  Not a lot, it seems, as Trump is likely “to continue to downgrade the United States’ global policeman role”, according to Hirsh.

Moreover, in his conclusion, Hirsh, still feels the need to embrace indispensability:

“Given the ongoing crises around the world — especially in Europe, the Middle East, and possibly East Asia if the Taiwan issue heats up — it’s highly questionable whether the United States can adjust downwards when there is no other power that even comes close to approaching Washington’s global sway.”

This seems a curious way to finish an article entitled, “Preparing for a Less Arrogant America”.

Another less equivocal article advocating an American re-setting of its global posture, to maintain a balance of power favourable to the US (rather than full spectrum dominance) has also lately been published in Foreign Policy: “The ‘Axis of Evil’ is Overhyped”, by Daniel R. DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh.  Refreshingly absent from this analysis are otherwise routine American exhortations to advance ideological loathing of a designated “shared enemy”.

The authors detail a range of more specific adjustments, before concluding that:

“Instead of treating these four powers as a unified bloc, policymakers should pursue differentiated strategies that address the unique challenges posed by each country and target the bilateral exchanges of greatest concern. Specifically, rather than relying so heavily on broad economic and financial sanctions, US policymakers should experiment with positive inducements that exploit the diverging ambitions of the four countries. Iran and North Korea, for instance, may be willing to limit military transfers to Russia in return for the relaxation of existing economic restrictions or limited cooperation on infrastructure development and commercial technologies. China, which may feel disenfranchised by the current US-led international system, could be enticed into curtailing technology sharing with Russia or North Korea in exchange for inclusion in new multilateral forums and a greater decision-making stake in global governance.

“Such moves would face opposition, especially from those attached to the axis of evil framing. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia would all prefer an international order that isn’t dominated by the United States, but the worst thing that Washington can do is overhype the threat of their alliance. That would be a major disservice to the core objectives of US grand strategy: maintaining a favorable global balance of power, minimising the risk of becoming entangled in needless conflict, and preserving opportunities to build better relationships with these states if the geopolitical landscape shifts in the future”.

The final sentence is ambiguous, perhaps deliberately so.  Do DePetris and Kavanagh include America as one of the states that may change to help build better geopolitical relationships in the future? It is, inescapably, the key state which needs to change in this way.

Perpetual dominance

The recent Foreign Affairs essay by Condoleezza Rice (see:  provides an indicative example of how those who remain conspicuous members of the majority, indispensable-nation brigade, think about American global dominance.

Rice’s article is long and winding, factually slack in places and it recurrently relies on dark-authoritarian versus noble-democracy cliches. Although it is not a particularly easy read, it is an essay written by a former US Secretary of State (from 2005 to 2009, under President George W. Bush) and so is something of a flagship statement.

It begins by telling us that: “The World Still Needs America – and America Still Needs the World”, later explaining that, “Great power DNA is still very much in the American genome”.

Unsurprisingly, boilerplate denigration of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea garnish the extended narrative, which means that, “Washington will need to maintain economic pressure on the revisionist powers. It should continue isolating Russia, with an eye toward arresting Beijing’s creeping support for the Kremlin”.  Though, caution is advised, as blunt sanctions imposed on China, “would be ineffective and counterproductive, crippling the US economy in the process”.

However, while still considering East Asia, Rice candidly observes that, “An attack on Taiwan would require a US military response, even if the policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ created uncertainty about the exact nature of it’.”  Which raises the question, how could today’s Canberra possibly hope to protect Australia from being sucked into this projected, bombs-away, American “solution-attack” on our paramount trading partner?

Rice also coldly holds a “hot dogging” Chinese pilot responsible for forcing a US reconnaissance plane to land (safely) in China – while it was spying on China.  Airbrushed is the fact that this “hot dogging” pilot was killed as a direct consequence of this mid-air encounter.

Here is how Rice brings her sprawling argument to a close:

“The new Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse — populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism — tend to ride together, and they are challenging the political centre. Only the United States can counter their advance and resist the temptation to go back to the future. But generating support for an internationalist foreign policy requires a president to paint a vivid picture of what that world would be like without an active United States.

“The future will be determined by the alliance of democratic, free-market states or it will be determined by the revisionist powers, harking back to a day of territorial conquest abroad and authoritarian practices at home. There is simply no other option”.

The current US President, Joe Biden, would surely nod in agreement.  In a recent major interview he told the news-anchor that “I’m running the world”.

Although the swollen stridency of the Rice article (echoed in countless similar American presentations – and policy documents) suggests wobbling hegemony-confidence in Washington, the US remains the most warlike country in the world – as former US President Jimmy Carter observed in 2019.

Conclusion

There are signs that guarded intellectual reconsideration of America’s “full spectrum global dominance” has begun within limited quarters in the US. 

But, as John Menadue recently noted, America continues to be “the most violent, aggressive country in the world today”. At about the same time, Daryl Guppy documented the ways in which NATO now “threatens Asia-Pacific stability” as it seeks “to manufacture an excuse for war” in East Asia.

This same US-driven, NATO threat prompted the leading Singaporean commentator, Kishore Mahbubani, to point out, in July: “The Pacific has no need of the destructive militaristic culture of the Atlantic alliance.”

Meanwhile, Ian Shaw, of Glasgow University argues that America stills operates a “predator empire”.  Caitlin Johnstone agrees, emphasising how the Democratic Party is even more hawkish than the Trump-led Republicans, notwithstanding confected, DP “celebrity progressive” arguments to the contrary.

Next, Philip Giraldi lately documented how “America’s search for new enemies” — a feature of US geopolitical thinking for around 80 years — remains intense today.

Notwithstanding watchful, minority, internal reflections on American global hegemony, the rest of the world continues to face, for the foreseeable future, what looks like (borrowing a term from Peter Hehir) a “left-right barking mad marching machine”.

Thus, as Eugene Doyle argues, “exiting Pax Americana” looks by far the most sensible course for Australia – and New Zealand.  How to manage this when a supine Canberra has turned Australia into an “indentured [American] state”? That is the question.

https://johnmenadue.com/american-reflections-on-global-hegemony/

 

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

an end....

 

The western way of war – Owning the narrative trumps reality

BY Alastair Crooke

 

War propaganda and feint are as old as the hills. Nothing new. But what is new is that infowar is no longer the adjunct to wider war objectives – but has become an end in and of itself.

The West has come to view ‘owning’ the winning narrative – and presenting the Other’s as clunky, dissonant, and extremist – as being more important than facing facts-on-the ground. Owning the winning narrative is to win, in this view. Virtual ‘victory’ thus trumps ‘real’ reality.

So, war becomes rather the setting for imposing ideological alignment across a wide global alliance and enforcing it via compliant media.

This objective enjoys a higher priority than, say, ensuring a manufacturing capacity sufficient to sustain military objectives. Crafting an imagined ‘reality’ has taken precedence over shaping the ground reality.

The point here is that this approach – being a function of whole of society alignment (both at home and abroad) – creates entrapments into false realities, false expectations, from which an exit (when such becomes necessary), turns near impossible, precisely because imposed alignment has ossified public sentiment. The possibility for a State to change course as events unfold becomes curtailed or lost, and the accurate reading of facts on the ground veers toward the politically correct and away from reality.

The cumulative effect of ‘a winning virtual narrative’ holds the risk nonetheless, of sliding incrementally toward inadvertent ‘real war’.

Take, for example, the NATO-orchestrated and equipped incursion into the symbolically significant Kursk Oblast. In terms of a ‘winning narrative’, its appeal to the West is obvious: Ukraine ‘takes the war to into Russia’.

Had the Ukrainian forces succeeded in capturing the Kursk Nuclear Power Station, they then would have had a significant bargaining chip, and might well have syphoned away Russian forces from the steadily collapsing Ukrainian ‘Line’ in Donbas.

And to top it off, (in infowar terms), the western media was prepped and aligned to show President Putin as “frozen” by the surprise incursion, and “wobbling” with anxiety that the Russian public would turn against him in their anger at the humiliation.

Bill Burns, head of CIA, opined that “Russia would offer no concessions on Ukraine, until Putin’s over-confidence was challenged, and Ukraine could show strength”. Other U.S. officials added that the Kursk incursion – in itself – would not bring Russia to the negotiating table; It would be necessary to build on the Kursk operation with other daring operations (to shake Moscow’s sang froid).

Of course, the overall aim was to show Russia as fragile and vulnerable, in line with the narrative that, at any moment Russia, could crack apart and scatter to the wind, in fragments. Leaving the West as winner, of course.

In fact, the Kursk incursion was a huge NATO gamble: It involved mortgaging Ukraine’s military reserves and armour, as chips on the roulette table, as a bet that an ephemeral success in Kursk would upend the strategic balance. The bet was lost, and the chips forfeit.

Plainly put, this Kursk affair exemplifies the West’s problem with ‘winning narratives’: Their inherent flaw is that they are grounded in emotivism and eschew argumentation. Inevitably, they are simplistic. They are simply intended to fuel a ‘whole of society’ common alignment. Which is to say that across MSM; business, federal agencies, NGOs and the security sector, all should adhere to opposing all ‘extremisms’ threatening ‘our democracy’.

This aim, of itself, dictates that the narrative be undemanding and relatively uncontentious: ‘Our Democracy, Our Values and Our Consensus’. The Democratic National Convention, for example, embraces ‘Joy’ (repeated endlessly), ‘moving Forward’ and ‘opposing weirdness’ as key statements. They are banal, however, these memes are given their energy and momentum, not by content so much, as by the deliberate Hollywood setting lending them razzamatazz and glamour.

It is not hard to see how this one-dimensional zeitgeist may have contributed to the U.S. and its allies’ misreading the impact of today’s Kursk ‘daring adventure’ on ordinary Russians.

‘Kursk’ has history. In 1943, Germany invaded Russia in Kursk to divert from its own losses, with Germany ultimately defeated at the Battle of Kursk. The return of German military equipment to the environs of Kursk must have left many gaping; the current battlefield around the town of Sudzha is precisely the spot where, in 1943, the Soviet 38th and 40th armies coiled for a counteroffensive against the German 4th Army.

Over the centuries, Russia has been variously attacked on its vulnerable flank from the West. And more recently by Napoleon and Hitler. Unsurprisingly, Russians are acutely sensitive to this bloody history. Did Bill Burns et al think this through? Did they imagine that NATO invading Russia itself would make Putin feel ‘challenged’, and that with one further shove, he would fold, and agree to a ‘frozen’ outcome in Ukraine – with the latter entering NATO? Maybe they did.

Ultimately the message that western services sent was that the West (NATO) is coming for Russia. This is the meaning of deliberately choosing Kursk. Reading the runes of Bill Burns message says prepare for war with NATO.

Just to be clear, this genre of ‘winning narrative’ surrounding Kursk is neither deceit nor feint. The Minsk Accords were examples of deceit, but they were deceits grounded in rational strategy (i.e. they were historically normal). The Minsk deceits were intended to buy the West time to further Ukraine’s militarisation – before attacking the Donbas. The deceit worked, but only at the price of a rupture of trust between Russia and the West. The Minsk deceits however, also accelerated an end to the 200-year era of the westification of Russia.

Kursk rather, is a different ‘fish’. It is grounded in the notions of western exceptionalism. The West perceives itself as tacking to ‘the right side of History’. ‘Winning narratives’ essentially assert – in secular format – the inevitability of the western eschatological Mission for global redemption and convergence. In this new narrative context, facts-on-the-ground become mere irritants, and not realities that must be taken into account.

This their Achilles’ Heel.

The DNC convention in Chicago however, underscored a further concern:

Just as the hegemonic West arose out of the Cold War era shaped and invigorated through dialectic opposition to communism (in the western mythology), so we see today, a (claimed) totalising ‘extremism’ (whether of MAGA mode; or of the external variety: Iran, Russia, etc.) – posed in Chicago in a similar Hegelian dialectic opposition to the former capitalism versus communism; but in today’s case, it is “extremism” in conflict with “Our Democracy”.

The DNC Chicago narrative-thesis is itself a tautology of identity differentiation posing as ‘togetherness’ under a diversity banner and in conflict with ‘whiteness’ and ‘extremism’. ‘Extremism’ effectively plainly is being set up as the successor to the former Cold War antithesis – communism.

The Chicago ‘back-room’ may be imagining that a confrontation with extremism – writ widely – will again, as it did in the post-Cold War era, yield an American rejuvenation. Which is to say that a conflict with Iran, Russia, and China (in a different way) may come onto the agenda. The telltale signs are there (plus the West’s need for a re-set of its economy, which war regularly provides).

The Kursk ploy no doubt seemed clever and audacious to London and Washington. Yet with what result? It achieved neither objective of taking Kursk NPP, nor of syphoning Russian troops from the Contact Line. The Ukrainian presence in the Kursk Oblast will be eliminated.

What it did do, however, is put an end to all prospects of an eventual negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Distrust of the U.S. in Russia is now absolute. It has made Moscow more determined to prosecute the special operation to conclusion. German equipment visible in Kursk has raised old ghosts, and consolidated awareness of the hostile western intentions toward Russia. ‘Never again’ is the unspoken riposte.

 

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/08/26/the-western-way-of-war-owning-the-narrative-trumps-reality/

 

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poor america....

 

BY Veniamin Popov

The US elites just cannot accept the changes in the world

 

In the US media and in the writings of a number of political scientists, the decline of the role and influence of the United States in the world is increasingly recognised. However, Washington is still thinking in terms of the last century, believing that the whole world revolves only around itself, and that the ‘poor’ United States are being opposed by revisionist (i.e. refusing to live according to US ways) powers, such as China and Russia, and such ‘villains’ as Iran and DPRK even openly sabotage US policy. 

It would seem that the incredible growth of the Chinese economy, which has overtaken the US one and confidently and rapidly continues to develop, the strengthening of other states – primarily the Russian Federation – as well as the more energetic activities of the states of the Global South to protect their own interests should have sobered US officials. The unipolar period of the world ended long ago, and now even the leaders of Western European states recognise that we live in a system of international relations that is characterised by multipolarity.

Sometimes one has to wonder with what arrogance US statesmen and public figures look at the world, tending to interpret the numerous miscalculations and failures of US foreign policy as malicious machinations of hostile states.

For example, according to the director of the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, Condoleezza Rice, who at the beginning of the 21st century was both assistant to the President for National Security and Secretary of State of the United States (and during this period of the image of a pragmatic politician was being created for her), in an article published recently by the Foreign Affairs magazine, she concludes that existing problems “are complicated by Russia’s growing cooperation with China, Iran and North Korea. The four countries have a common goal: to undermine and replace the US-led international system that they hate”.

The article admits that “the United States is tempted to turn inward”, so it is titled «The Perils of Isolationism». The main idea is that the US should continue its interventionist course with only minor adjustments. Rice writes that “the United States is a different country now – exhausted by eight decades of international leadership, some of it successful and appreciated, and some of it dismissed as a failure. The American people are different, too – less confident in their institutions and in the viability of the American dream. Years of divisive rhetoric…have left Americans with a tattered sense of shared values”.

The US does not want to remove the uniform of the ‘global gendarme’

However, no matter what, Washington must continue its vector of pressure in international affairs, strive (as before) to isolate Russia and maintain that “China’s behaviour is unacceptable”. “Never again should Washington unfreeze Iranian assets as the Biden administration did”.

According to Rice, in order to ensure an internationalist foreign policy, in other words ensuring Washington’s dictate and interference, the president must paint a vivid picture of what this world would be like without an active United States, i.e. without US leadership. In this case, we all face chaos and disorder. Only the United States is capable of ensuring the future development of mankind, since “great-power DNA is still very much in the American genome”. Recognising that Americans have seriously exhausted their capabilities in the outside world, Rice ignores and does not mention the possibility of reaching compromise and solutions based on taking into account the interests of other parties; it is only about the US imposing its views and its decisions, it simply cannot suggest other options.

Unfortunately, such a black-and-white vision of the world is still very typical for most US political scientists. They cannot break free from the uniform of the world gendarme in any way. Even the biggest failures in foreign policy in recent years have not taught them anything.

 

Veniamin Popov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Candidate of Historical Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook

 

https://journal-neo.su/2024/08/29/the-us-elites-just-cannot-accept-the-changes-in-the-world/

 

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YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.