Despite supposedly possessing information about Wagner Group and its founder preparing to mutiny, US intelligence officials reportedly opted to keep quiet due to concerns that Moscow might otherwise "accuse" them of trying to orchestrate a coup.

US intelligence officials have been well aware of PMC Wagner Group's head Yevgeny Prigozhin preparing to launch his mutiny and armed insurrection, US media report citing their sources.

According to one media outlet, US congressional leaders were briefed earlier this week by intelligence officials on Wagner's military buildup and movements that apparently preceded their march on Russian cities this weekend.

One source reportedly said that it was hard to discern at the time where Prigozhin would send his men and how serious he was with his threats against Russian military officials.

Another US newspaper also alleged that, while US intelligence was aware of Prigozhin's preparations, it decided not to make their findings public due to concerns that Moscow might "accuse them of trying to organize a coup in Russia."

 

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230625/us-spies-stayed-mum-about-pmc-wagners-mutiny-despite-knowing-about-it-beforehand---media-1111464048.html

 

 

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OF COURSE THE US SPIES HAD TO BE ADVISED OF THE COUP BY BAD BOY Evgeny Prigozhin, OTHERWISE, THE UKRAINIANS WOULD NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO LAUNCH MORE USELESS "COUNTEROFFENSIVE" OPTIONS....

 

GEES, DO I HAVE TO SPELL EVERYTHING FOR YOU? DO YOU THINK Evgeny Prigozhin HAD ANY CHANCE OF SUCCESS WITH 30,000 (TIRED) SOLDIERS AGAINST 500,000 FRESH RUSSIAN TROOPS? DO YOU THINK Evgeny Prigozhin WOULD STILL BE ALLOWED TO ROAM THE COUNTRYSIDE, IF HE HAD MADE A DEAL WITH NATO, TO OVERTHROW PUTIN? NO, HE WOULD HAVE BEEN SHOT PRONTO.... PUTIN MADE A DEAL TO ALLOW Evgeny Prigozhin AND WAGNER TO STILL OPERATE, BUT AS REQUESTED BY LAW, OUTSIDE RUSSIA... THIS TIME PROTECTING BELARUS. WIN-WIN? WIN-WIN!...

 

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By Steve RosenbergRussia Editor, Moscow BBC

 

After a weekend of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions.

First, Yevgeny Prigozhin declares he's ready to "go all the way" in his mutiny against the Russian military. Then he makes a sudden U-turn and orders his Wagner fighters back to base. 

In a TV address, President Vladimir Putin declares the rebellion "a criminal adventure… a grievous crime… treason… blackmail and terrorism." Yet just a few hours later, as part of an agreement with Prigozhin, it's revealed that all criminal charges against the Wagner leader are being dropped.

So much for "grievous crime".

 

The Kremlin leader's mixed messages have been raising eyebrows here and changing perceptions of President Putin.

"He definitely looks weaker," says Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. 

 

"You can't make a public statement declaring people are criminals and then, on the same day, at the end of the day, let your press secretary disagree with you and say 'No, those people haven't broken the criminal code.'"

Russia's former minister for economic development, Andrei Nechaev, makes a similar point. 

In a post on social media, Mr Nechaev argues: "The law has lost all power. Even grievous crimes won't be punished due to political expediency. In the morning, you might be declared a traitor. In the evening, you can be forgiven and the criminal case against you dropped. 

"The country is so clearly on the threshold of big change."

Big change? Bold prediction. But if change is coming, might the Wagner rebellion be the trigger? A deal may have been done and the mutiny called off. But the fact the uprising happened on Mr Putin's watch is embarrassing for the president, who is also commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces. 

And keep in mind: Mr Putin's current presidential term runs out next year. 

 

"All elite groups will now begin to think about the 2024 presidential election," predicts Mr Remchukov. "They will ask themselves whether they should rely on Vladimir Putin, as they have been doing until this military coup. 

"Or should they think about someone new, who is capable of dealing with problems in a more contemporary manner?"

"Someone new" for the presidency is not something you normally hear the Russian elite discussing openly. That doesn't mean a change of guard in the Kremlin is imminent. If there's one thing Vladimir Putin has perfected after 23 years in power, it is the art of political survival. 

But his decision last year to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered widespread instability within his own country: everything from economic problems to drone attacks on Russian regions, from shelling of Russian border areas near Ukraine to cross-border incursions into Russia by saboteur groups, and now an armed uprising by Wagner. 

All of this ratchets up the pressure on the Kremlin leader. 

Don't expect President Putin to concede that he got things wrong, though. Admitting mistakes and miscalculations is not his style.

 

So what will be the Russian president's next move? A clue, perhaps, came in the latest edition of Russian State TV's flagship Sunday night news show. Reporting on the Wagner uprising, the presenter played an extract from an old Putin interview. 

"Are you able to forgive?"

"Yes. But not everything."

"What can't you forgive?"

"Treachery."

I wonder if Yevgeny Prigozhin was watching.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66015624

 

WHAT CAN I SAY MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE EXPLAINED FROM THE TOP?

THIS WAS A DECEPTION NOT 'AGAINST PUTIN" BUT TO CHALLENGE THE UKRAINIANS TO COME FOR MORE BIFFO...

AND IT WORKED.

 

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Putin declares, ‘Ukraine no longer exists’ and we are going to see to it

John Helmer

In brief statements issued late last week in Moscow – their significance missed in the western press — President Vladimir Putin ordered a reality check of Russia’s war strategy. He then answered himself by declaring the war will be over when no Ukrainian army will be left on the battlefield, nor NATO weapons. 

The Foreign Ministry answered by pointing out that Russia does not recognize there is a legal Ukrainian state because the reality is that the mutual recognition treaty between Russia and the Ukraine was cancelled by Presidents Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Zelensky in 2018 and 2019. 

“We can conclude,” Putin said at the Security Council meeting on Thursday morning,  “that they can certainly send in additional equipment, but the mobilisation reserve is not unlimited. And Ukraine’s Western allies really seem determined to fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian. At the same time, we must proceed from the fact that the enemy’s offensive potential has not been exhausted; they may have strategic reserves yet unused, and I ask you to keep this in mind when making fighting strategies. You need to proceed from reality.”

Putin was following by a few hours the statement by the Foreign Ministry that Russia does not recognize the legal sovereignty of the regime in Kiev, and that following the cancellation of the treaty between the Ukraine and Russia in 2019, there will be no Ukrainian state left to sign an end-of-war agreement.

At her weekly briefing of reporters, the ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova, was asked “when will Russia initiate a legal procedure to terminate the bilateral treaty with Ukraine on its sovereignty?” Zakharova answered:  “The procedure for terminating the bilateral treaty with Ukraine on its sovereignty is hampered by the absence of such a treaty. In Article 1 of the Treaty on the Principles of Relations between the RSFSR and the Ukrainian SSR of November 19, 1990, the two republics recognised each other as ‘sovereign states.’ The 1990 treaty was then replaced by the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine of May 31, 1997 (Article 39),  which was denounced by Ukraine and terminated on April 1, 2019.”

 

No army, no state. But the war will continue because it is the one between the US and the NATO powers and Russia. That too will have an ending, but longer.

“If [NATO Secretary-General] Mr Stoltenberg again says on behalf of NATO that they are against freezing the conflict in Ukraine,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said  on June 21,    “this means that they want to fight. So let them fight. We are ready for that. We realised NATO’s true goals in Ukraine some time ago as their plans took shape over the years that followed the coup. Today, NATO is attempting to implement them…they are directly involved in the hybrid and hot war declared on Russia.”

 

I am reminded, Lavrov added, “of a Soviet-era joke noting that the Soviet Union is located too close to US military bases.” The Soviet Union was dismantled, but the war continues against Russia. It will end when the US is pushed to a safe distance.  How safe, Putin asked Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to explain in answer to two questions?

 

Putin’s question: “we know that the enemy is to receive additional Western equipment. What does the Defence Ministry think about threats in this connection?”

Shoigu’s answer: “All arsenals, accumulated by the Soviet Union and countries of the former socialist bloc, have now been virtually depleted. We can say the same about former Ukrainian resources… the amount, due to be delivered throughout 2023, as well as those weapons that have already been delivered, will not seriously affect the course of hostilities. Additionally, most of the armoured vehicles and fighting vehicles belong to the previous generation, or even to an earlier generation. On the one hand, their armour is weak and ineffective, compared to modern equipment. Mr President, we do not see any threats here.”

Question: “Mr Shoigu, what is the percentage of Western equipment out of the equipment that has been destroyed since June 4, which Mr Patrushev has just reported giving generalised data? Approximately.”

Answer: “Of the 246 tanks destroyed, 13 were Western made. At the same time, it should be noted that, if we consider the equipment that was delivered, tanks in particular: 81 Western-made tanks have been delivered. Of the 81 Western tanks, 13 [16%] have been destroyed. Of the armoured fighting vehicles, 59 Western ones have been destroyed. To date, Western countries have supplied Ukraine with an estimated 109 Bradley armoured fighting vehicles. Of the 109 BFVs, 18 [17%] have been destroyed. Overall, 59 Western-made armoured vehicles have been destroyed. As for field artillery and guns, here, of course, I can estimate right away that out of the 48 pieces destroyed, about 30 percent were Western made.”

The “reality”, Putin concluded publicly, not for Shoigu or the General Staff, is that the percentage of NATO weapons destroyed on the battlefield will rise sharply because “the enemy’s offensive potential has not been exhausted; they may have strategic reserves yet unused.” When those reserves are defeated, there will be neither NATO arms nor Ukrainian men left.

The significance of this re-tuning of Russia’s war aims was diverted for several hours by the Prigozhin affair. 

The return of the Wagner columns to their bases in Lugansk, the dissolution of Wagner by the Defense Ministry, and the exit of Prigozhin to house arrest in Belarus remove the distraction from the battlefield and the General Staff’s war strategy.  If Prigozhin cannot bear the silence, the lack of access to the fortune he has accumulated, and his loss of freedom of movement, he may attempt a break-out to Africa, to plot his return to Russian politics. He will also be aware of the Lebed precedent – and the danger of taking helicopter rides. 

Russian military sources believe the outcome of the one-armed rebellion will be salutary for the key decision-makers including Putin and Shoigu; least of all the General Staff and the chief, General Valery Gerasimov,  who have come out of the affair with greater political leverage over the Kremlin.  According to one Moscow source, “Now that the General Staff have saved the president, the latter will allow General Patience to continue doing its work, as Generals Iskander and Kinzhal seem to be doing theirs now.”

The last comment is a reference to long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian command headquarters, airfields, reserve stocks of ammunition and fuel, and NATO storages. After Shoigu had publicly warned on June 20 of decapitation strikes if the Ukrainians attacked targets in the Crimea and other Russian regions,  and there was a Storm Shadow attack on the Chongar bridge in the Crimea on June 22, the Defense Ministry reported that it had launched a June 23 salvo “ in response to a strike on a road bridge across the Chongar Strait [as well as] , a warehouse with Storm Shadow cruise missiles was destroyed at a Ukrainian airbase near the settlement of Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky region.” 

As for the impact of the affair on the conduct of the war, the assessment reported in the broadcast several hours before the end of the affair, was between next to nothing and not very much. The no Ukrainian army, no NATO weapons, no Kiev state goals are much more important now.

A NATO veteran comments on what he expects to see next at the front. “The Ukrainians are going to have a problem disengaging at the front lines and passing on to a conventional defence. I’ve noticed that the Russians, especially on the Lugansk People’s Repubic/Kharkov front, have massed significant forces and are applying pressure. This is causing the Ukrainians to shift and commit forces to the area either to stop the Russians, or to gain the initiative via attack. Unless they are willing to accept losing territory in favour of sparing their reserves — which they don’t seem to be — they will continue to be ground down at the front. While this is going on, their logistics will disintegrate at an increasing scope and rate due to Russian strikes, made up in large part of cheap Iranian-designed drones augmented by missiles.

“Stavka is moving away from the battalion tactical group as the fulcrum of operations and back to division-level formations. The forces built up on the Kharkov front are indicative of that. When your enemy knows how you think on a fundamental level, it’s a trifle for them to figure out what you’ll do next. After that,  it’s about how to maneuver the enemy into doing it when and where they choose. I’m going to keep watching Kharkov.”

Listen to the presentation in the third segment of TNT Radio’s War of the Worlds, from Minute 46:  

 

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/06/25/putin-orders-reality-check-no-ukrainians-left-on-the-battlefield-no-sovereignty-in-kiev/

 

 

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NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

A MEMORANDUM OF NON-AGGRESSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA.

 

EASY.

 

THE WEST KNOWS IT.

 

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Wagner’s revolt weakening Putin’s authority ‘wishful thinking’ of the West: experts

By Chen Qingqing

 

Under the mediation of Belarus, the Wagner rebellion, which was widely characterized as a coup targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin by Western media, ended within about 24 hours. Such dramatic changes in the situation from Friday to Saturday attracted the world's attention as some Western analysis considered this "armed rebellion" as a heavy blow to Putin's power, exposing the weakness of his leadership as the Ukraine-Russia war entered a stalemate, which some Chinese experts say is "wishful thinking" by the West regarding Russian politics. 

Following a short-lived revolt, Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave Russia and move to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which ended an armed rebellion that Prigozhin had led against Russia's military leadership, Reuters reported. 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Lukashenko had offered to mediate, with Putin's agreement, because he had known Prigozhin personally for around 20 years. Peskov said that the criminal case that had been opened against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and that the Wagner fighters who had taken part in his "march for justice" would not face any action, in recognition of their previous service to Russia, according to the media report. 

The long-standing feud between the Wagner chief and Russia's military evolved into an open confrontation on Saturday as Prigozhin's forces moved into the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and advanced hundreds of kilometers toward Moscow.  READ MOREhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1293134.shtml  YES, IT WAS A "FARCE". MOST LIKELY A SET-UP. THE WESTERN MEDIA TOOK IT AS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR PUTIN TO FALL... A TRAGEDY TO CELEBRATE. IT WON'T HAPPEN... WELL, IT'S VERY UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN, UNLESS PUTIN DECIDES TO RETIRE ON ONE OF HIS MANY YACHTS HE SUPPOSE TO OWN... CONTROLING MERCENARIES IS ALWAYS A HARD TASK... BUT HERE, THE FINE POINTS OF THE "COUP" DYNAMICS HAD THE SMELL OF A HOAX... A SUPERBLY WELL-CONSTRUCTED HOAX, MIND YOU, THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA AND THAT UKRAINE WOULD SWALLOW WITH GLEE. CONSIDER THIS: WAGNER FORCES (MADE OF RUSSIANS AND FORMER CONVICTS, PROUD TO BE RECOGNISED BY PUTIN AND FREE ONCE THEY FULLFIL THE CONTRACT) ARE NOW POSITIONED IN BELARUS, 100 KILOMETRES FROM KIEV...WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU?AND PRIGOZHIN IS STILL IN CHARGE? WITH PUTIN'S BLESSINGS...?  YOU ARE ALLOWED TO LAUGH...... ACCORDING TO RUSSIAN LAWS, MERCENARIES LIKE WAGNER ARE NOT ALLOW TO FIGHT IN RUSSIA, INCLUDING THE NEW TERRITORIES... A NEW HOME HAD TO BE FOUND FOR THESE DIE-HARD FIGHTERS... FINDING A HOME WAS A "STICKING POINT". THE BELARUS DEAL WOULD HAVE BEEN PLANNED IN ADVANCE, BUT THE WESTERN MEDIA WOULD HAVE SEEN WAGNER IN BELARUS AS AN AGGRESSIVE MOVE RATHER THAN A DESPERATE SOLUTION... THE DEAL WAS ANNOUCED BASICALLY AS THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY, EAGER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF "THE MOMENT OF RUSSIAN DISARRAY" WENT ON THE OFFENSIVE AGAIN — AND GOT HIT FOR SIX (MORE THAN 800 DEAD IN 24 HOURS).... ISN'T PUTIN THE "GRAND-MASTER OF" OR AS IN THE CARTOON THE GREATEST... I DID NOT FILL THE WORD ... YES: "GEOSTRATEGIST..."THAT'S IT: PUTIN IS THE GREATEST GEOSTRATEGIST... FINDING AN EXCUSE TO MOVE WAGNER's 30,000 TROOPS TO BELARUS IS A STROKE OF GENIUS. SEE, KIEV HAD BEEN MAKING NOISES ABOUT INVADING BELARUS ASWELL, DON'T YOU KNOW?... TRY THIS VOLODYMYR.... NEXT STOP, KIEV... AND PUTIN HAS MENTIONED THAT UNLESS UKRAINE CAPITULATES, THE INTENSITY OF FIGHTING IS SOON GOING TEN FOLDS OR SUCH. STILL TARGETTING ALL MILITARY INSTALATIONS, DEPOTS AND ARMED FORCES... UNTIL UKRAINE HAS NOTHING NOR ANYBODY TO FIGHT WITH. CLEAR?....  READ FROM TOP. 

MAKE A DEAL PRONTO BEFORE THE SHIT HITS THE FAN:

 

 

NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

A MEMORANDUM OF NON-AGGRESSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA.

 

EASY.

 

THE WEST KNOWS IT.

 

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I COULD BE WRONG... (SEE ABOVE) BUT....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfL00TyDjyE

 

SEE FROM TOP.

 

 

 

NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

A MEMORANDUM OF NON-AGGRESSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA.

 

EASY.

 

THE WEST KNOWS IT.

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....

 

By Damian Secen

 

Perhaps we can admire the strength of a leader to concede, rather than describe any concession as weakness.

Most people woke up to a barrage of headlines about Russia over the weekend.

One and all, they trumpeted Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s “weakness” after what has been described as a fizzled coup.

Careful what you wish for.

By any account, Wagner Group boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin is a hardline war criminal. His march on Moscow, had it been successful, would have unseated a leader who has led an incredibly complex and challenging country and its people for over 20 years.

Well you might criticize Putin or take issue with his leadership, but surrounding Putin, especially in the silovki (Putin’s inner circle of strongmen), are any number of unqualified but ambitious people like Prigozhin. Is the West so certain that life without Putin, and with an unknown, is better?

Why are we here. Simply put, chapter one of most mainstream press’ favourite version of events is Russia invades Ukraine, causes global supply chain shortages and mass inflation, chapter two, the West backs Ukraine, overthrows Putin, and restores order.

Not so fast.

Several authors in this publication, including Cavan Hogue have fairly captured the more subtle nuances of this story; that provocation by NATO played a role in Russia’s invasion. They are quick to point out, as am I, that this does not justify invasion. Fair enough. But it is helpful to explain it. Arguably it is a more legitimate justification than other nation states have used for their own lethal invasions of free states.

Time and again however, unseating one dictator, no matter how despotic, has not created the nirvana of peace hoped for. As we stand on the precipice of even greater uncertainty, we should all reflect on past success in deposing leaders of other countries.

Second, mainstream media and politicians have been all too quick to blame the war in Ukraine on global inflation. Again, not so fast. The decision, led by the US, to impose sanctions on Russia has been the true cause of “war on Ukraine” inflation. Russia remains one of the world’s largest producers of gas, fertilisers and many major commodities.

Is there any good news? Actually, there is a crucial lesson; one that has been ignored in the rush to describe Putin as weak or weakened. And that is the role diplomacy can play, even with Putin.

As troops marched on Moscow, friendships and diplomacy, rather than bullets, won. Open lines of communication between Putin, the Belarussian President Lukashenko, and Prigozhin enabled agreement on terms.

Perhaps we can admire the strength of a leader to concede, rather than describe any concession as weakness. This seems prudent when concessions will be required to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Only if we maintain open lines of communication, can this occur. Further, as unpalatable as it might seem, if the world wants to rein in inflation and ease the suffering on millions of households from rising interest rates, releasing essential commodities back into supply chains may prove far more effective than hiking interest rates.

https://johnmenadue.com/russias-coup-careful-what-you-wish-for/

 

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MAKE A DEAL PRONTO BEFORE THE SHIT HITS THE FAN:

 

 

NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

A MEMORANDUM OF NON-AGGRESSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA.

 

EASY.

 

THE WEST KNOWS IT.

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE NOW....

 

 

BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

FSB spooked the CIA on Prigozhin coup

 

The CNN, followed by the New York Times, broke the story on Sunday that the US and western intelligence were indeed aware of the failed coup attempt on Friday night by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group of Russian military contractors, “for quite some time and making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition.” 

What we do not know is at what point Russian intelligence got wind of it. The  Kremlin acted forcefully, decisively and with foresight in real time to scotch the coup attempt within hours. By Saturday evening, the foreign intelligence chief Sergey Narishkin announced that the coup attempt had failed. The Russian authorities were waiting for Prigozhin to make his move. 

It is only natural that Russian intelligence kept a strong presence right inside the Wagner tent all through. Damn it, it is a war zone where Russia’s fate is hanging in the balance. The lyrics of the famous Sting song come to mind: ‘Every breath you take / And every move you make / Every bond you break / Every step you take / I’ll be watching you…’ 

And the Chorus sings, thereupon: ‘Oh, can’t you see / You belong to me? / How my poor heart aches / With every step you take…’ 

Just as the CIA or most intelligence organisations do, the FSB also psychoanalyses the remarks of their targets for profound meanings. They do that routinely and have trained analysts who do only that. 

It wouldn’t have escaped the attention of Russian intelligence analysts that Prigozhin’s ranting and ravings from Donetsk from last autumn and winter began originally on the operational aspects of the Bakhmut war front in Donetsk oblast, but incrementally began acquiring political overtones, culminating finally in his incredible statement that the raison d’être of the special military operation in Ukraine since February 2022, was all baloney. 

Even more strangely, this man who physically witnessed the Battle of Bakhmut, came to the bizarre conclusion that Kiev or Nato had no mala fide intentions toward Donbass or Russia. 

Therefore, the ‘known known’ here is that the Russian intelligence was under instructions to be in ‘listening mode,’ give the eddies a free flow in the Battle of Bakhmut where Wagner was in the driving seat. (Interestingly, though, at some point, much to Prigozhin’s annoyance, Moscow also began deploying regular troops selectively on the Bakhmut front alongside the Wagner fighters. ) 

On Saturday, top US intelligence officials sprang into action to brief the media as it emerged that Russian authorities were literally waiting with a road map to squash Prigozhin’s coup attempt. Even the Chechen militia was put on standby.

The crucial element in the deal struck with Prigozhin has been that he will not be prosecuted but must simply get lost. And where else could his exile be arranged better on Planet Earth than in Belarus under the benevolent eyes of President Alexander Lukashenko?

Now, we may get to know at some point from Lukashenko, who struggles to keep secrets for long, as to when exactly would Putin have taken him into confidence on a ‘need-to-know basis.’ It strains credulity that such a complex dealmaking was possible within a clutch of hours via tortuous 3-way negotiations between Moscow, Minsk and Rostov-on-Don even as the renegade Wagner column was approaching Moscow. 

An intriguing sub-plot here is that amidst all this heavy traffic, Lukashenko also negotiated with Nurusultan Nazarbayev, the former Kazakh dictator  who headed a pro-western regime in Astana and was ousted from power after reigning for nearly three decades, following the failure of a similar US-backed coup attempt like Prigozhin’s in the winter of 2021-2022, which too was crushed with the help of the CSTO forces (Russian troops) led by a Russian general. 

On the previous day, in fact, Putin had spoken with two Central Asian leaders  — Kazakh President Jomart Tokayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Miromonovich Mirziyoyev. Did he share any crucial intelligence? In fact, both these countries have been facing western plots for regime change lately. By the way, Given Moscow’s preoccupations in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping has stepped in to take a hands-on role to consolidate the stability and security of the Central Asian region. (Please see my recent articles — China takes leadership role in Central Asia  ; An “Axis of Seven” to supplement SCO; and, Russia, China take holistic view of the Pamirs and Hindu Kush.

Clearly, something was seriously afoot in Kazakhstan, which is sandwiched between Russia and China and is the most crucial piece of real estate in geopolitical terms in Central Asia.

In all probability, this was what the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken alluded to when he told ABC on Sunday that the situation with the attempted coup in Russia “is still developing… I don’t want to speculate, and I don’t think we saw the final episode.” That said, however, Blinken has piled up a consistent record for being horribly wrong on his assessments on Russia — starting from the deathly blow the ‘sanctions from hell’ were expected to give to the Russian economy; Putin’s hold on power; Russia’s catastrophic defeat in Ukraine; Russian military’s deficiencies; Kiev’s inexorable military victory, and so on. 

In this case, he has reason to feel embittered particularly because of the spectacular unity of the Russian state, political elite, media, regional and federal bureaucracy, and the military and security establishment in rallying behind Putin. Arguably, Putin’s political stature is now unchallengeable and unassailable in Russia and the Americans have to live with that reality long after Joe Biden’s departure from the scene.

Going forward

The Kremlin has adopted a very thoughtful strategy. From available details so far, it has the following five key elements: 

1. Principally, the top priority is to avoid bloodshed so that life moves on and the focus on the war in Ukraine, which is at a tipping point, doesn’t suffer; 
2. In immediate terms, get the few renegade Wagner fighters and Prigozhin to leave Rostov-on-Don and return to their camps in Lugansk; 
3. Clinically separate Prigozhin from the rest of Wagner Group (In fact, not a single Wagner commander or officer joined his revolt); 
4. Offer immunity to the bulk of the Wagner Group — except the participants in the coup, of course — and facilitate their formal integration into the defence ministry. That is, the logic behind the creation of Wagner Group by the Defence Ministry (and an unnamed top secret internal security agency) holds good still, but it will no longer be a quasi-state force, but will have a habitation and name and led by designated professional military commanders instead of free-wheeling fortune hunters like Prigozhin.) 
5. Get Prigozhin to leave for Belarus, which was not difficult once he realised that he should request mercy from none other than Putin (who agreed to the oligarch’s safe passage to Belarus.)  

The last element is utterly fascinating. The Kremlin is extremely annoyed with Prigozhin for his seditious behaviour but is also aware — presumably on the basis of intelligence inputs — that he has been manipulated by western powers. Of course, there is going to be a price to pay. Prigozhin will never get back his towering stature as an oligarch with a personal fortune of $1.2 billion or the fabulous lifestyle he led.

But at least, the 62-year old oligarch is spared a possible twenty-year prison term. This is of a piece with Putin’s handling of oligarchs in general. (Read my article The Rise and fall of a Russian oligarch.)

Make no mistake, Lukashenko will eventually make Prigozhin sing — sooner rather later — and the song will be transmitted live to the Kremlin. And that accounts for the great nervousness in Washington, which has raised the spectre of nuclear war, etc. to give the spin to distract attention from the CIA’s plot to destabilise Russia. The irrepressible Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov calls ita “turbulent stream of consciousness.” 

To be sure, now that the CIA-MI6- Prigozhin plot has failed, out of its debris, new western narratives will be born like a Phoenix out of the ashes. And the US’  sleeping cells abroad, including in the Indian media, will parrot that narrative. 

But, not for long. For, what lies ahead is the manifestation of the steely resolve of the Kremlin — and Putin himself — to seek an all-out military solution to the Ukraine crisis. Putin declared last week — most likely in anticipation of the storm brewing on the horizon — that the war will be over when no Ukrainian army will be left on the battlefield, or NATO weapons.  

Read the official transcript of a videoconference that Putin took last Thursday, in the immediate run-up to Prigozhin’s coup attempt, with the full quorum of the Security Council (post-Soviet Russia’s ‘Politburo’), which gives a flavour of the mood in the Kremlin and will provide some clues to what to expect on the battlefields of Ukraine, going forward. It is a huge signal in advance to the “collective West” that nothing will be forgotten. 

 

READ MORE:

https://www.indianpunchline.com/fsb-spooked-the-cia-on-prigozhin-coup/

 

 

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JYojQWsELs

 

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRYaWIUEQg

Germany has announced to station an additional 4,000 soldiers in Lithuania. The decision comes after Lithuania urged NATO to strengthen its Eastern flank amid chaos in Russia. The Baltic state of Lithuania shares a boundary with Russia and its ally Belarus. Wagner PMC Chief's exile to Belarus after a coup bid in Russia has put the NATO nation on alert. Watch the video for more.

 

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

MAKE A DEAL PRONTO BEFORE THE SHIT HITS THE FAN:

 

 

NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

A MEMORANDUM OF NON-AGGRESSION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA.

 

EASY.

 

THE WEST KNOWS IT.

 

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