You're going to find out that the Missile Shield meeting to be held by Australia and Japan today is nothing but a sham photo-op to "announce" a long-preplanned strategic manouevre. Flicking back through my blog tonight I found "When is the pre-emptive strike on Kim Jong Il scheduled to occur? I'm guessing 2010, when Australia and Japan's maritime contributions to the Missile Shield are afloat." I wrote this on July 1 2005, before the emphasis on Iran began. I realise I was also a little early on some of the timespans involved. Then again, I titled the piece "Adelaide And The White House 2008?" and I don't think I'm too far off the track on that one. Let's start from Septmer 10 of 2001, when Halliburton opened an office in Moscow to help eliminate WMD's.

Actually, you need to go past September to March, the eve of President Bush's first meeting with the Chinese Premier. At that time the New York Times reported Chinese concern of the possibility of the US giving Taiwan Aegis missiles. China, posessing around 25 missiles that could potentially strike the US mainland, was ready to talk.

In July that year CNN Asia kept the ball rolling by publishing a "Perspective" on the missile shield (here's a good map there). CNN noted that "the most favorable response came from Australia, which said it would allow the US to us joint military bases on its soil for the shield."e most favorable response

It's been almost exactly two years since the last round of Missile Shield stories appeared in both our own and international media. Defence Minister Nelson's comments in today's press, ahead of a conference he and Foreign Minister Downer contain far less information than that what was given so long ago.

Before we get to Nelson, try a little of this ABC piece from May 24, 2005:

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[extract]

The Pentagon has announced the possible sale of three Aegis naval weapons systems to Australia, saying it would increase the ability of the United States and Australian navies to operate together.

The Aegis system is a key component of the US missile defence system, known as "son of star wars".

It has been selected by the Australian Government for the $6 billion SEA 4000 air warfare destroyers, which are expected to enter service with the Navy in 2013.

The US Defence Security and Cooperation Agency (DSCA) estimated the value of the sale at as high as $460 million.

Aegis systems are centred on a sophisticated computerised command system that can cue air defence missiles to enemy missiles and aircraft detected by targeting radar.

Using its AN/SPY-1 phased array radar, it can track over 100 targets simultaneously.

Noting Australia's strategic location, the DSCA said helping the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) modernise its fleet of surface warships was vital to US interests.

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A few days after this, on May 30, South Australian Premier Mike Rann shook hands with his office staff and said "Mission Acomplished." He was "celebrating'" the fact that Adelaide had been granted the contract to build the three warships that are about to be shown as capable of being Australia's contribution to the Missile Shield.

In July the Centre Foir Asai Pacific Studies released a report by Richard Bitzinger on missile defence cooperation with the United States. It explained how Japan agreed to purchase AEGIS systems for a ship-based missile system. Japan would integrate the systems with existing and new ships, and until it was ready US warships would provide Shield coverage. The also explained how Australia had agreed to participate in the Shield by extending the range of its Jindalee Over-the horizon Radar Network (JORN) to enable it to detect incoming missiles. Australia, the report claimed, had not signed on to participate in active missile defence. Perhaps the AWD contract information wasn't available at the time?

Exactly two years to the day after describing the US investment in JORN as "a massive project, a huge public expenditure by the United States" Australian Defence Minister Hill said that trials had shown that JORN "might" be able to participate in the Shield.  Hill also said at the time (December 5, 2005) that "A year or so ago it was thought to be decades away.  Now the United States will in fact deploy the first part of its defence shield next year."  Around the time of this announcemt.  KBR's former Global Vice-President for Infrastructure and the Asia-Pacific region was assuming his new position as civilian co-ordinator of "small-to-medium" contracts for the warship construction.

The placement for the order of the Aegis systems for the three AWDs was placed late last year.

A couple of things have happened in the last two weeks.  

First:  As Minister Downer went to hang out with State Secretary Rice, the announcement of a Japan/Australia missile treaty came out.  

Then, while Downer was serfing the USA, Defence Minister Nelson announced the expansion of the ASC at Port Adelaide to cater for submarine orders coming in from numerous Asian countries.  Could we guess Japan and Taiwan?  Australia, to endear itself to China, recognises the One China policy.  On the other hand, a Taiwan Government defence report has called for six new submarines.  I tried to suggest in the local paper that we might be gearing up for Taiwan, but it appears that space has been too precious to publish the idea.

Now Downer is telling Russia that it needn't be concerned about the Shield...

 I wonder what they'll announce tomorrow?