Friday 7th of October 2022

the plan behind the bullying of china and russia has been engineered for some considerable time…. like since about 1917…...

The path to war in Asia – crossing the Rubicon.

The conditions for a war in Asia are ripening by the day, but be under no illusion, this situation is not organically happening. These conditions have been engineered for quite some considerable time. The unrelenting rhetoric, near constant media coverage and propaganda we are being subjected to daily is not in any way simply a result of ‘happenings’ or in response to ’emergent events’. On the contrary, this march to war has been a long and carefully orchestrated, craftfully engineered objective by the architects of this strategy.

 BY PHILL HYNES

 

The fragility of the geopolitical situation grows more uncertain with each passing week. As we entered 2022 the geopolitical situation took a dire turn with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, at the same time, the pressure continued to be directed to China over Taiwan, the South China Sea, Xinjiang and the Uyghurs and Hong Kong. The focus has been gradually shifting away from the war in Ukraine and building back towards China and Taiwan, ‘pivoting the emphasis’ back to Asia. This is not by chance, nor responsive to the growing need to divert attention from the war in Ukraine. It was always going to go this anti- China direction. This shift is part of a long, well-planned strategy of confrontation and conflict with China, with Taiwan as the catalyst.

See the following article – https://johnmenadue.com/taiwan-tension-is-latest-stage-of-a-precision-engineered-plan/

The below article further spells out why Ukraine is but a stepping stone to this objective. https://johnmenadue.com/ukraine-and-implications-for-taiwan/

These pressure valves around China have been pressed and adjusted as and when needed over the past few years. They are adjusted as and when it  suits to maintain the strategy of ‘continuity of pressure’ on China. See here for analysis: https://johnmenadue.com/strategists-admit-west-is-goading-china-into-war/

The Strategy

The greatest challenge to comprehending and understanding that a strategy to goad China into a war does exist is contained in the sheer volume of information with happenings, events, incidents, pronouncements and actions on a now daily basis. The challenge is at what point in time one chooses to anchor the beginning of this strategy. One could start in 2001 with China’s ascension to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), or in 1997 with the return of Hong Kong to China , or delve further back in time to 1989 – Tiananmen Square, or 1986 – the China Spring.

However, filtering them is a gargantuan task.There’s simply too many instances  which would essentially drown out the critical events. Therefore, the trimmed timeline below is designed to filter the information and identify the key events that demonstrate a discernible beginning for current events and strategy. One needs to start with a more recent date as being a catalyst for a visible commencement of the end game.

But a brief point for consideration before looking at the timeline. After China’s ascension to the WTO there was evidently a honeymoon period between the U.S. and China. This was a  period whereby the U.S. perceived that liberal democracy would take hold in China and result in political, social and economic change and bring about transformational reform in the country. That patently didn’t happen. But it took a few years of natural process for the U.S. to realise the ‘wait and see’ approach was simply not going to work.

This propels us to 2008 and then President Obama’s announcement of the U.S. ‘Pivot to Asia’ to strengthen the U.S. role in the Asia-Pacific region and counter China’s growing influence. But as with all such policies there is a lead- in period, they take time to formulate and implement. Consequently, I have chosen 2017 as the visible start date for conciseness. 2017 was significant for  the establishment of the Quadrilateral defence alliance between the U.S., Japan, India and Australia.

Timeline:

  • The reinvention of the previously dormant ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (2007) into the QUAD ‘Defense Alliance’ in September 2017
  • 2018 the US-China trade War and the Tech War  launched
  • 2018 the Uyghur / Xinjiang media campaign commences in earnest
  • 2018 France announces and implements Indo-Pacific Strategy
  • 2018 Release of the U.K. Indo-Pacific Strategy
  • April 2019 China appears on NATO’s agenda for the first time.
  • June 2019 Hong Kong Protests encouraged by the US.
  • NATO’s ‘Pivot to China – ’In December 2019 NATO members adopted an interim classified report which governed and resulted in the ‘London Declaration, issued by NATO Heads of State and Government’
  • January 2020 the Covid Pandemic starts – Trump starts referring to the virus as the ‘China Virus’
  • 2020 Sanctions pressure increases on China over Xinjiang and Hong Kong
  • 2020 Germany Announces Indo-Pacific Strategy
  • Early 2021 West collectively begin compiling preemptive sanction packages against Russia and China
  • February 2021 definition of NATO Article 5 – Mutual Defence Pact – redefined to extend geographical scope to Indo-Pacific and introduce technical scope – Cyber-attacks
  • April 2021 E.U. Announces Indo-Pacific Strategy
  • June 2021 G7 Summit calls for ‘commonality of purpose’ against China and unified stance
  • June 2021 NATO Summit, alteration and adaption of redefined Article 5 of NATO – Mutual Defence Pact adopted at the NATO Summit on the back of the G7 summit
  • The surprise announcement of the AUKUS pact in September 2021, clearly agreed and established prior to the NATO summit in June.
  • September 2021 E.U. ratifies Indo-Pacific Strategy
  • October 2021 Japan relaunches their ‘modified’ flat top helicopter carrier warships as aircraft carriers
  • April 2021 to December 2021 the buildup of 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the Donbass.
  • October 2021 to December 2021 E.U. and individual nation states – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia, increase engagement with Taiwan
  • December 2021 Russia puts their security concerns and suggested remedial actions to NATO, U.S. and E.U. They were universally blanked and ignored.
  • January 19th 2022 Ukraine Democracy Defence Lend -Lease Act S.3522 is introduced by Sen. John Cornyn. (Yes, prior to any Russian military action).
  • February 2022 Russia launches ‘Special Military Operation’ into Ukraine.
  • March 2nd Former US Secretary of State Pompeo arrives in Taiwan and refers to the island as an ‘independent state’.
  • March 2022 the NATO Cyber Defence Group (CDG) votes to extend membership to 5 non-NATO members
    • Ukraine
    • Sweden
    • Finland
    • Switzerland
    • South Korea
  • The further extension of invitations to 3 additional ‘non-NATO members’ to the Madrid Summit in June, all Asia Pacific nations:
    • Australia
    • New Zealand
    • Japan
  • April 2022 US House Majority Speaker Nancy Pelosi cancels planned trip to Taiwan because of having contracted Covid19.
  • May 2022 South Korea officially accepted into NATO’s Cyber Defence Group – CDG.
  • June 2022 Japan announces they will station an active serving Defence Attaché in Taiwan, indicating a significant and seismic shift by Japan since WWII
  • June 2022 Senators Lindsay Graham (D-N.J.) and Bob Menendez (R-S.C.) introduce the bipartisan Taiwan Policy Act. The legislation represents the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy towards Taiwan. It includes the provision of US$4.5 billion in security assistance over the next four years.
  • June 2022 The Monterey Dialogue – strategic national security discussions between the U.S. and Taiwan are moved forward by 5 months to take place one week before the NATO Summit. (Note; this is the first time since their inception after the 3rd Taiwan Straits crisis that they have been moved).
  • 29th – 30th of June NATO Summit Madrid Spain. NATO members agree and adopt a new strategic concept
  • June 30th Japanese PM calls for significant upgrade of his countries ties with NATO.
  • July 2022 NATO announces expansion of cooperation with Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia.
  • July 6th Japan proposes sending warships through the Taiwan straits.
  • July 7th FBI and Mi5 leaders deliver joint statement on Chinese threat.
  • July 12th Australia urges US to expand Asia military presence to avoid ‘catastrophe’
  • July 2022 US House passes the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) bolting an additional US$ 37 billion onto the budget to exceed US$ 800 billion
  • July 15th 2022 China demands an end to US and Taiwan military collusion
  • July 16th US State department approves US$108 million military technical assistance to Taiwan.
  • July 19th EU Parliament VP, highest EU MEP to visit Taiwan, announces Europe must stand firm on the side of Taiwan as part of a “family of democracies”
  • July 19th Mark Esper, former US Defence Secretary, leading an Atlantic Council delegation pronounces (personal view!) alongside Taiwanese President that it is time to abandon the “Strategic Ambiguity Policy”
  • July 21st CIA chief warns “Beijing looks determined to use force to take the island”
  • July 27th Statement from White House: The Biden administration has grown increasingly anxious this summer about China’s statements and actions regarding Taiwan
  • August 1st “In the event of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, the EU, together with the U.S. and allies, will take similar or tougher measures than they are currently taking against the Russian Federation,” EU Ambassador to China Jorge Toledo
  • August 2nd Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan, setting of a chain reaction of condemnation from Beijing and the lowest point in Sino-US relations since before Nixon’s February 1972 visit to China establishing formal relations with the PRC.
  • China launches military and naval exercises around Taiwan

Boiling the Frogs

Just as diplomatic recognition of China was the purpose and the outcome of Nixon’s 1972 China visit, a new process of recognition denial  is currently also underway. What the US is doing, aided and abetted by the EU, and NATO, is an erosion of the status quo. There is a de facto reversal of the diplomatic recognition of China’s sovereignty over Taiwan agreed under the ‘Three Communiques’ of 1972, 1979 and 1982, with a disingenuous shift to diplomatic recognition of the ‘Democratic Taiwanese government’ over China’s sovereign claim.

We can expect these ‘stealth recognitions’ to increase and intensify in the coming weeks and months. But it actually has little to do with Taiwanese sovereignty as it does with provoking and cajoling China into reacting. The objective is to lure China into a conflict whereby blame can squarely be apportioned to China as the aggressor. The consent of the ‘international community’, as defined by a clique of western countries, is being manufactured to this effect and has been for so some time.

As one can deduct from the timeline above there has been a graduated and incremental increase in actions from the US and the west over Taiwan over a long period. However, one third of this timeline detail has taken place in the past six weeks. Pause and consider that. The actions of the Western powers, led by the US, towards China, are designed to provoke Beijing over its own clearly identified red line. A red line Beijing thought would keep matters in check has essentially become the stick to beat and cajole China into taking the bait.

The frogs have been slowly boiled over the past few years. The temperature has been turned up a few necessary degrees since late 2021.It is now, with the events of the past six weeks being turned to boiling point. The White House claims that it is trying to delay the Taiwan Relations Act passage. Given the current situation this is both a disingenuous claim and a highly provocative move. The timing of the Act on the back of Pelosi’s trip is patently designed to inflame and heighten tensions. China is being goaded tim and time again.

The Thucydides Trap is being sprung on Beijing and although Beijing seems  to understand this,  there is little  opportunity to avoid the trap. It would appear that the march to war is nearing its climax. Though, the US thought China’s reaction would be what the US desired and anticipated, it hasn’t yet gone that way. Beijing has been shrewd enough to avoid firing the first shot. Although the Chinese military exercises have wrapped up, military activities have increased around the Straits and will continue to increase.

The US, EU and NATO stealth strategy of erosion of the status quo coupled to provocation may well not, just yet, yield the sought-after catalyst of necessary military confrontation to unleash the already prepared economic sanctions that will accompany  confrontation. The game is still playing out, the catalyst could come in a different form with China’s hybrid strategy towards Taiwan leaving plenty of non-violent actions. However, what is clear, cold war, hot war, or combination thereof, the US China policy has crossed the Rubicon, a new status quo is emerging regarding Taiwan.

 

READ MORE:

https://johnmenadue.com/the-goading-of-china-continues-day-after-day-pelosi-was-just-the-most-recent-deliberate-provocation/

 

SEE ALSO: 

 

https://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/36261

https://yourdemocracy.net/drupal/node/43171

 

 

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agents provocateurs...

 

BY Valery Kulikov

 

On August 7, a delegation of 11 Lithuanian officials led by Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications Agnė Vaiciukevičiūtė arrived in Taiwan on a five-day visit. According to the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry, the purpose of the delegation’s visit is to “strengthen strategic cooperation and business ties in advanced sectors.” In reality, however, the Lithuanian vice-ministers talked about the possibility of signing documents that hinted at Taiwan’s independence, thus sending a signal to the separatist forces on the island that was not friendly to Beijing.

Stubbornly pursuing the anti-Beijing course imposed by Washington politicians on the limitrophe country, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister earlier commented on the recent visit of the US House of Representatives speaker to Taiwan, saying that with this move Pelosi supposedly “opened the door” to the island “even wider.” Voicing instructions from Washington on the matter, he expressed confidence that very soon “other defenders of freedom and democracy” would arrive there.

At the same time, a few days before the visit of Lithuanian officials to Taiwan, Lithuanian Seimas speaker Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, answering questions from foreign correspondents, said she intended to discuss with leading EU politicians the possibility of a “joint visit to Taiwan” in the near future.

In 2022, Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Innovation Jovita Neliupšienė and Deputy Minister of Agriculture Egidijus Giedraitis also visited Taiwan, indicating that Vilnius is deliberately implementing the relevant anti-Chinese directives from Washington.

Chinese authorities have criticized the visit of Lithuanian government members to Taiwan, believing that Lithuanian officials support the island’s separatists. “We express our strong displeasure over this visit as it is a gross interference in our internal affairs. This is a challenge to the One China principle, a vicious provocation and an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country. The PRC will retaliate decisively,” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin told at a briefing.

According to Chinese media, Lithuania, with which China tried to build friendly and mutually beneficial relations after 1991, has since last year become the vanguard of anti-Chinese policies in Europe. However, it should be recalled that before 2019 Lithuania also tried to maintain positive relations with China: back in 2018, while in Beijing, then Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė called cooperation with the PRC “important” and very beneficial. According to UN Comtrade, Lithuania’s exports to China in 2020 amounted to $357.7 million, while imports from the PRC were $1.8 billion, making China the seventh largest import trading partner for Vilnius. Critically reacting to the development of relations between Vilnius and Beijing, Washington immediately made it clear to its Baltic satellite that it would decide with whom Lithuania would be friends and with whom not. In this way, the USA had already chosen Lithuania as a weak link of the European Union, through which any anti-Chinese and anti-Russian initiatives could be thrown in, making Vilnius, which does not have any independence, an instrument of its policy.

Thus the situation between Lithuania and China began to change as the US-China trade wars escalated and Lithuania’s “cooperation” with the US intensified. Already in 2019, the Lithuanian State Security Department first called China a threat, and then Lithuanian President G. Nausėda said he sees Chinese investment in Lithuanian ports as a menace as well. This was followed, with blatant initiation by Washington, by a scandal involving Huawei Corporation, which intended to deploy a fifth-generation mobile phone network in Lithuania and which Vilnius indiscriminately accused of spying activities. In February 2021, the Lithuanian Seimas, showing its servile allegiance to Washington, began drafting a resolution on the situation of Uighurs in the “authoritarian communist” PRC, and the MP Dovilė Šakalienė even promised to seek an international investigation into “Beijing’s crimes” in this regard. In March last year, Vilnius announced plans to open a trade and economic representative office in Taiwan, and in May Lithuania left the 17+1 Forum for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries and called on other participants to follow suit.

With the opening of the first “Taiwan representative office” in the EU in Lithuania on November 18, Lithuanian-Chinese relations took a turn for the worse, with China recalling its Ambassador from Vilnius and suggesting that Lithuania do the same. Beijing then decided to downgrade diplomatic relations with the Baltic republic to Chargé d’affaires.

And in December of the same year, the Chinese government banned imports of goods from Lithuania, after which Lithuanian exporters were excluded from the Celestial Empire’s customs system, which stopped allowing Lithuanian goods and goods with Lithuanian components into the country, and also stopped accepting import applications from Lithuania. These sanctions tactics by Beijing have led to a 40% drop in cargo turnover in the port of Klaipeda alone and to desperate appeals by Vilnius to the US and EU for help against the Chinese sanctions.  However, a loophole was found in these sanctions – goods went through the ports of neighboring countries. At some point, the European Commission’s efforts apparently bore fruit, and the Baltic Republic returned to the PRC’s customs systems.  However, China did teach Vilnius a lesson by showing where sanctions from the “collective West” can lead. Although the PRC then loosened its grip temporarily, the move nevertheless signaled that it wanted to see whether Lithuania was ready to “re-educate” itself. If not, the demonstration lesson could be repeated.

That said, however, it should be noted that the economic logic behind Vilnius’ decision to ostensibly support Taiwan clearly does not work. Back in the early 1990s, such logic would have been politically shaky, but economically understandable, as there was then a mirage of “inexhaustible Taiwanese investment”. Today, however, the situation is different, especially in the context of the economic crisis in the Baltic Republic itself. And the only explanation for the current moves by Vilnius in this direction can only be the hopes of Lithuania to be compensated by the United States for losses from such openly anti-Chinese moves – in economic and military-political terms. Vilnius is clearly counting on the US to further strengthen the Baltic bridgehead as part of its military containment of Russia, as well as to provide the Lithuanian government with a new generous compensation in the form of hundreds of millions of dollars in direct loan guarantees, while de facto helping not so much Vilnius as its own companies.

However, all indications are that, despite possible American “compensation”, Vilnius will in any case be the main loser in this story.  After all, it has managed not only to make an enemy of Beijing, but also to set Europe up and, in relations with Washington, to move from the rank of satellite to the even less honorable category of “provocateurs”. And as history shows, the United States leaves them to the mercy of fate as soon as it sees fit.

 

Valery Kulikov, political expert, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

 

READ MORE:

https://journal-neo.org/2022/08/16/how-much-has-the-us-promised-to-pay-for-lithuania-s-anti-chinese-policy/

 

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SEE ALSO: 

 

https://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/36261

https://yourdemocracy.net/drupal/node/43171

 

 

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the US deceit runs deep…..

The Western strategy to dismantle the Russian Federation

 

by Thierry Meyssan

 

Renewing the strategies of Germany during the First World War and of the United States and the Ukrainian integral nationalists during the Cold War, the Westerners have just created a Forum of the free peoples of Russia. The aim is to prolong the break-up of the USSR, to create separatist movements and, ultimately, to proclaim the independence of twenty regions of the country.

 

 

THE GERMAN EMPIRE OF WILLIAM II VERSUS THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE OF NICHOLAS II

At the beginning of the 20th century, before the world wars, Central Europe was deeply unstable. Two powers clashed in this great plain: in the West, the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires, in the East, the Russian Empire. The populations were invited to choose their protector, knowing that the borders had been modified many times and that none seemed definitive.

The Russian Empire had remained blocked for several centuries, leaving its subjects in a situation of ignorance and complete misery, while the German Empire had become the main scientific center of the world and was developing at great speed. Therefore, most Central European intellectuals chose to support Germany rather than Russia.

During the First World War, the German and Austro-Hungarian foreign ministries launched a joint secret operation: the creation of the League of Allogenic Peoples of Russia (Liga der Fremdvölker Rußlands - LFR) [1]. They recruited many high-level intellectuals to lead it. The aim was to implode the Russian Empire by creating separatist movements. The League called on the United States (which did not enter the war until 1917) to liberate the enslaved peoples.

Dmytro Dontsov, the future founder of "Ukrainian integral nationalism" [2], supported this movement and even became its employee. He shamelessly directed the Bern branch and edited the monthly Bulletin des nationalités de Russie in French.

 

THE UNITED STATES AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION

In addition, at the end of World War II, the OSS, and later the CIA, organized the transfer of anti-communist leaders from the Axis to the Third World and recycled them into various governments. They created an Asian Peoples’ Anti-Communist League around the Chinese Chiang Kai-shek, then a World Anti-Communist League (WACL), with the support of the former Ukrainian full nationalist Prime Minister, the Nazi Yaroslav Stetsko [3]. This secret organization, whose headquarters are still in Taiwan, was renamed the World League for Freedom and Democracy in 1990.

It is no coincidence that the war in Ukraine is followed by provocations in Taiwan, but the logical extension of this strategy. The League is always financed by the Taiwanese secret service and its actions are covered by the defense secret.

 

UKRAINIAN INTEGRAL NATIONALISTS AGAINST THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Ukrainian integral nationalist Dmytro Yarosh created in Ternopol (Western Ukraine) in 2007 - that is, under the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko - an "Anti-Imperialist Front", an organization aimed at blowing up the Russian Federation. But whereas the attempts of the 1910s were based on the appeal of the German Empire and those of the Cold War on anti-communism, this third operation relied on jihadists [4].

The first Islamic emir of Itchkeria (Chechnya), Doku Umarov, should have participated, but he was wanted worldwide and could not get out of Russia. He sent a message of support and was elected co-chairman of the organization. In addition to the above-mentioned, he was elected co-chairman of the organization. Jihadists from Crimea, Adygea, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachaevo-Cherkessia and Ossetia came to the meeting.

Dmytro Yarosh and many Ukrainian integral nationalists fought in Chechnya on the side of the Islamic Emirate of Itchkeria. At the time, the Western press spoke of a national liberation movement and ignored the imposition of Sharia law by Doku Umarov.

 

THE FORUM OF FREE PEOPLES OF RUSSIA

Today, when Dontsov’s works are required reading for the 120,000 soldiers of the Ukrainian integral nationalist militias and Dmytro Yarosh has become an advisor to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armies, an unidentified sponsor - presumably the German BND, the U.S. CIA and the Ukrainian SBU - organized a Forum of Free Nations of Russia in Prague on July 23-24, 2022 [5].

It seems that the SBU was reluctant to participate and that this was one of the reasons that led the US to recommend to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to dismiss its director.

The term "Free Peoples" is the one used by Ukrainian integral nationalists, including the Ukrainian economist Lev Dobriansky. Dobriansky founded the National Captive Nations Committee with President Dwight Eisenhower and Yaroslav Stetsko, and later helped found the World Anti-Communist League. His daughter, Paula Dobriansky, played a central role in the propaganda apparatus of the State Department and the Thomson Reuters news agency. She served as Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs during the presidency of George W. Bush. President Donald Trump opposed her appointment as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

The Free Peoples’ Forum of Russia uses the argument of peoples’ self-determination to justify a partition of Russia. When the USSR was dissolved, fifteen separate states were freed, including the Russian Federation. The idea is to extend this partition, this time creating twenty more states. This would not only create new states in the Caucasus, but also completely change the map of Siberia, that is, the marches of China.

However, if there is a real problem of development in some regions of Russia, it is being solved with the creation of new communication routes, first East-West, then for the last ten years, North-South. The peoples that the BND, the CIA and the SBU wish to "liberate" have never expressed their desire to leave the Russian Federation, with the exception of Chechnya, which is now at peace.

Again, it is no coincidence that the Russian army is emphasizing the place of its Chechen units in its special military operation against the Ukrainian "Nazis" in Donbass [I prefer the term "Ukrainian integral nationalists"]. This is a way for her to remind that she has satisfied the Chechen demands after two terrible wars. Similarly, the President of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, calls on his people to take revenge for the abuses committed in his country by Ukrainian integral nationalists.

On August 15, 2022, President Vladimir Putin, who is acutely aware of this Western strategy, announced the convening of a world anti-Nazi conference in Moscow.

 

Thierry Meyssan

 

Translation 

Roger Lagassé

 

 

READ MORE:

https://www.voltairenet.org/article217765.html

 

 

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YOU WON'T READ ANY OF THIS IN THE WESTERN MEDIA.

 

SEE ALSO: 

https://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/36261

https://yourdemocracy.net/drupal/node/43171

 

 

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