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Moscow’s power, often denigrated and exaggerated at the same time in the characteristically contradictory style of its Western opponents, is not comparable to that of the war-addicted post-Cold War USA, but it is enough to matter. From Central Europe to the Sea of Japan, the country has regional security interests spanning half the globe.

By Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian at Koç University in Istanbul working on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, the history of World War II, the cultural Cold War, and the politics of memory. He tweets at @tarikcyrilamar.

It is no surprise, then, that the newly forged Atlantic-Pacific triple alliance between the US, Great Britain, and Australia, known as AUKUS, has caught the eye of Russian leaders and defense chiefs. Announced on 15 September, the pact was presented as targeting China. However, it’s clear its geopolitical implications won’t be felt in Beijing alone.

Initially cautious, Moscow’s response has quickly become more critical. Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, has denounced AUKUS as the “prototype of an Asian NATO,” set to expand, and directed against both China and Russia. 

The essence of AUKUS is not complicated. While it covers various areas, such as cyber and artificial intelligence, its core is the transfer of technology from the USA to Australia. And not just any technology, but that of nuclear-powered submarines, which, until now, have been in the possession of only six states: China, France, Great Britain, Russia, the USA, and – in a complicated manner dependent on Russia – India.

While having submarines propelled by nuclear reactors is, fortunately, not the same as having nuclear weapons to launch from them, this technology is still of great strategic significance. The US Naval Institute has summed up its advantages (even while acknowledging its costs): “Superior speed, range, stealth, and endurance make the nuclear submarine a very effective offensive weapon, capable of projecting power and taking the fight to the enemy.” 

There is no doubt, then, that AUKUS adds to Australia’s military clout and, indirectly, to that of the US as well. It also increases, for now at least, its political weight in Washington, where President Joe Biden has declared Canberra to be an ally second to none (officially making the “special relationship” with Britain a merry threesome, it seems). Yet, with Australia arming itself most of all against China, why and how is AUKUS important to Russia?

There are, in essence, three ways in which AUKUS could make a difference for Russia: through its effects on Russia, on China (or Asia more broadly), and on the EU. With respect to China and Russia, Australia’s future nuclear-propelled subs would have enough range to enter the northern Pacific waters where Russia’s navy is routinely stationed. If these boats were equipped with weapons that could strike Russia, which is technically feasible, they would become a much more serious concern. Moscow may, accordingly, expand its own nuclear submarine fleet in the Pacific. In such a world, the already existing strategic partnership between China and Russia would only get stronger. 

Read more:

https://www.rt.com/russia/535758-aukus-pushing-russia-china-closer/