from politicoz ….

The numbers this morning tell a story of impending disaster for Tony Abbott's prime ministership. Newspoll records that just 24% of respondents are satisfied with Abbott's performance against 68% dissatisfied. The same poll gives the Labor opposition a 57-43 lead on preferences, which is the Coalition government's worst result since the September 2013 election. And this morning, 39% of his own party room voted in favour of a spill motion which, if it had succeeded, would have subjected him to a likely contest against Malcolm Turnbull.

It's the last figure that is the most unsustainable. Before the vote Abbott was talking up a figure less than half that. It's an extraordinary result that recalls Paul Keating's first challenge against Bob Hawke in mid-1991, when he attracted 40% of caucus support: Hawke's leadership was fundamentally undermined, and Keating won a second challenge six months later. Incidentally, that's the amount of time Abbott has now reportedly asked his colleagues to give him. But Hawke had already won re-election three times. Today, just 17 months into Abbott's prime ministership, there wasn't even a challenger – 39 of his colleagues just gave him a message they don't think he's up to it.

Despite the inevitable post-spill spin from the Coalition, it's now a matter of when, not if, Abbott is replaced as prime minister. Abbott is still promising the world – more consultation, more collegiality – but still his actions belie his words. Over the weekend he made further "captain's picks": he backflipped on his previous opposition to opening Australia's submarine contracts to tender, and he unilaterally brought forward the leadership spill from Tuesday to today. Meanwhile the odds of Turnbull becoming Australia's next prime ministership have shortened dramatically. Unambiguously, the winner from today's spill vote is Bill Shorten's Labor Party, as the Courier-Mail predicted this morning.

Tony, Toppling