With Howard, Abbott & their ilk convincingly defeated on the future regulation of RU486 today, it’s worth taking a minute to reflect on the disgusting racial & religious bigotry implicit in Danna Vale’s comments this week, particularly given that they are indicative of an increasingly common mindset in our country, consistently encouraged by the Howard government. 

In the typical alarmist & dishonest “dog-whistling” fashion that has become the hallmark of the government, Danna Vale claimed that Australia would become a Muslim nation within 50 years, if the current claimed annual abortion rate of 100,000 foetuses was not curtailed. 

Whilst Vale’s hysterical hyperbole was condemned by most commentators, including many of her Parliamentary colleagues, no-one actually bothered to scrutinize the mathematical accuracy of her claims. 

Whilst I’m not a statistician, it seems to me that Danna’s numbers simply don’t stand-up to scrutiny. 

According to the ABS, Australia’s total population is currently 20,470,000 people, of which 1.5% (307,050 people) is Muslim.              

Muslim Births 

Starting in 2006, let’s assume that 50% of the current Muslim population of 307,050 are women of child-bearing age (153,525 women). If all have 4 children each from 2006, they will produce 614,100 children. 

If we assume that the 614,100 children above are all female & that this 2nd generation all have 4 children each, they will produce a further 2,456,400 children. 

Assuming that no Muslim women in the 3rd generation have any children before turning 18, then the total of Muslim births in the next 50 years would be 3,070,500 children. 

Muslim Deaths 

To be conservative, let’s assume that no Australian Muslims perish in the next 50 years. 

Arrivals / Departures 

Australia’s net immigration movement each year adds 154,000 people to our populace. 

If we assume that the number of immigration movements annually doesn’t change & that the population mix of Muslims stays constant at 1.5%, then 2,310 Muslims will be added per year for the next 50 years: a total of 115,500 additional Muslims. 

Total Muslim Population 

On the basis of these numbers, the estimated total Muslim population in Australia in 50 years will be 3,493,050 people

(307,050 current + 3,070,500 births + 115,500 arrivals) 

Non-Muslim Births 

The current total birth rate in Australia is 246,375 children annually. 

Assuming that 92,850 of those births are Muslim children (see above), then Non-Muslim births would amount to 153,525 children annually. 

If we assume that the Non-Muslim birth rate only applies for 8 years out of the next 50 years, then only 1,228,200 Non-Muslim children will be born in that period. 

Non-Muslim Deaths 

Again to be conservative, let’s assume that current annual death rate of 134,196 people is ALL Non-Muslim & remains constant for 50 years. Total deaths of Non-Muslim people would be 6,709,800 people. 

Arrivals / Departures 

If we assume that total net Non-Muslim arrivals amount to 151,690 people per year for the next 50 years, then there will be 7,584,500 new Non-Muslim arrivals. 

Total Non-Muslim Population 

Based on these numbers, the estimated total Non-Muslim population in 50 years would be 22,265,850 people

(20,162,950 current + 1,228,200 births – 6,709,800 deaths + 7,584,500 arrivals) 

So, in 50 Years 

It would seem that Australia’s total population in 50 years will be 25,758,900 people (the ABS projection is 25 million by 2050), of which 3,493,050 people (13.6%) will be Muslim. 

This is hardly a “Muslim Nation”, unless, of course, Danna is expecting the Australian population to undergo a wholesale religious conversion over the next 50 years? 

So much for Danna’s numbers …..