Sunday 22nd of December 2024

warning about warming...

sydney storm

picture by Gus Leonisky

A new study suggests climate scientists may have underestimated the effect of greenhouse gases, with global temperatures now predicted to rise by between 1.4 and 3 degrees Celsius by 2050.

The study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience by a team of international scientists who ran 10,000 computer simulations of climate models in an attempt to explore the range of global warming predictions made by climate scientists.

The researchers found that while their results matched the predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at the lower end, they were higher than earlier predictions at the higher end.

One of the certainties about predicting climate change is uncertainty, which is why climate change professor David Frame and 26 of his colleagues from around the world have tried to narrow things down.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-26/scientists-may-have-underestimated-climate-change/3913288

record wet...

"South-east Australia recorded its wettest seven-day period in history, and the combined effect of two back-to-back La Nina events contributed to Australia's wettest two-year period on record," the bureau said.

The weather bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said that while this La Nina may be over, we still need to be cautious.



Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/la-nina-gone-from-pacific-says-weather-bureau/story-e6frfkvr-1226311973085#ixzz1qLtqueis

more crap weather ahead...

Global warming is leading to such severe storms, droughts and heatwaves that nations should prepare for an unprecedented onslaught of deadly and costly weather disasters, an international panel of climate scientists says in a new report.

The greatest danger from extreme weather is in highly populated, poor regions of the world, the report warns, but no corner of the globe - from Mumbai to Miami - is immune. The document by a Nobel prize-winning panel of climate scientists forecasts stronger tropical cyclones and more frequent heat waves, deluges and droughts.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/extreme-weather-its-about-to-get-worse-say-scientists-20120329-1vz7p.html#ixzz1qTUJTw6g

Dear Mr Murray...

Dear Mr Murray, You're an idiot... well not quite, you're an intelligent man who has not paid any attention to the reality of this planet in peril... If someone gave you a "Sophie's" choice: save the planet or make some bux, you'd choose bux anyday... So you're an idiot and a silly scrooge.. GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL AND IS induced by our usage of EXTRA CARBON (from fossil deposits) not from our usage from the "natural" carbon equation that has ruled the atmosphere over the last few million years... It's that simple and yet very complex like a tax return form. The more your earn the more you should be paying tax... But you can fudge the deductions... The earth does not care about deductions: The more we burn carbon the more we will be paying to the piper... The carbon equation is not like a yearly transfer to the IRS. It usually takes eons for the sum total to manifest... Yet we're on the road for a large measurable increase of global temperature in only a couple of centuries... Look, if we could "feel" the yearly increase of global warming in our bones, we'd be cooked within FIVE YEARS... It's like predicting cyclones and hurricanes... There is an element of uncertainty (probability at 99 per cent) but also a strong element of PREDICTABILITY in their pathways and the destruction that happens in their path. Should we do nothing about global warming, things will change for the worse (though with the present ppms of CO2 in the atmosphere, we're still on for a rough ride, CO2 ppms already at a high not seen since 800,000 years ago) — insurance premiums will go through the roof to the point that insurance will become impossible. And the insurance industry KNOWS THIS.

Bean counting expertise DOES NOT GIVE YOU the right to dispute the proper science. The carbon tax is designed to reduce "our earnings" in carbon emissions... So Bugger off.

 

Mr Murray has previously said there is no link between carbon dioxide and global warming.


 

empirical experiment and belief...

From the Guardian

...

The challenge is to find a way of explaining why climate change matters using language and ideas that don't alienate people. Simply repeating the scientific case for climate change is - unfortunately - not going to cut it.

In fact, the more we know, the less it seems that climate change scepticism has to do with climate science at all. Climate change provokes such visceral arguments because it allows ancient battles - about personal responsibility, state intervention, the regulation of industry, the distribution of resources and wealth, or the role of technologies in society - to be fought all over again.

It follows that the answer to overcoming climate change scepticism is to stop reiterating the science, and start engaging with what climate change scepticism is really about - competing visions of how people see the world, and what they want the future to be like.

Do you "believe" in climate change might not be the scientifically rational question to ask, but it is the most essential one to address if we are to understand - and ultimately get beyond - climate change scepticism.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/mar/30/belief-climate-change-scepticism

the neanderthals strike back .....

from Crikey ….

Everyone's in a lather about outgoing chair of the Future Fund David Murray's comments on the carbon tax on Radio National this morning.

Specifically, the tax is "the worst piece of economic reform" he has every seen in his life. And that "the consequence of introducing that tax at that level in Australia today is very, very bad for this economy, particularly in terms of international competitiveness".

But are these sentiments at all surprising coming from a man who said this to The Australian Financial Review over lunch last year:

"'[Carbon dioxide] has got nothing to do with pollution ... carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, it is colourless and odourless. It is not a pollutant … It is a tiny proportion of greenhouse gases. There is no correlation between warming and carbon dioxide ...'

"Asked what should be done about climate change, he replied: 'Take measures to stop the effects of it.' Asked about glaciers, Murray rejects any suggestion of glacial melt. 'They’re not. The amount of ice in the world is slightly increasing. It is not decreasing. It is just staggering, staggering.'"

Channel Ten's Paul Bongiorno tweeted this morning: "David Murray is on the record rejecting anthropogenic global warming. That makes his rejection of the CT logical but ill informed."

The government's carbon pricing plan is far from perfect policy, as we've outlined in our own pages. But it's hard to take the criticism of Murray seriously given he doesn't consider there is any correlation between warming and carbon dioxide. A price on carbon is inherently flawed if you don't believe it's a pollutant based on the, ahem, fact that it's "colourless and odourless".

The Future Fund board members have come under fire recently for sounding off about the government's chair appointment process. But what about the appropriateness of the then-chair professing these kinds of sentiments?

As Bernard Keane pointed out last year: "Fairfax revealed via FOI documents ... that the Fund’s Board of Guardians had not discussed climate change since 2007. But as a long-term investor with over $50 billion in assets under management, the Future Fund is even more exposed to the issues raised by climate change impacts, future carbon prices and the growth of renewables than most investors."

The Future Fund is one of the world’s larger sovereign wealth funds and is a highly influential investor. The question was, and still is, whether Murray's climate stance had a direct impact on the long-term returns of the Future Fund. All eyes on incoming chairman David Gonski to see if he'll continue the legacy of apparent recalcitrance in an area that already commands well-established practices by most global investment funds.

climate patterns and global warming...

AFTER a week of gloriously warm weather, sun-bathing Brits have been warned that the big chill is coming for the Easter holidays. But before salt starts selling out at the rate of unleaded petrol, is the UK really going to be covered with snow?
 
March has been the third warmest since records began 350 years ago with eight straight days of sunshine, reports the 
Daily Mail, with only 1938 and 1957 boasting higher temperatures than the 21 degrees centigrade seen today. "But snow is coming for Easter," warns the newspaper.

Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/weather/46116/britain-basks-sunshine-it-really-about-snow#ixzz1qry7U2fR

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Most of my contact in Europe ar stressing the fact that water is becoming very scarce. Winter has not filled the dams. There are no reserve left after a very dry summer /autumn as well. And the winds are mostly continental. Global warming is kicking in... The RXTRA  carbon dioxide that humans have been pumping into the atmosphere is altering climatic patterns more and more...

Presently there are floods in Fiji as NEVER SEEN BEFORE... Fiji has seen many cyclones and fierce storms in the past, but so far nothing so devastating and violent... And apparently a cyclone is now forming the the west of the islands...

most ambitious schemes to tackle climate change...

 

Australia has unveiled one of the world's most ambitious schemes to tackle climate change.

From July 2012, Australia's biggest polluting companies will pay $24 a tonne for their carbon emissions, increasing 2.5 per cent a year until moving to a market-set price in 2015. The plan will create the largest emissions trading scheme after the European Union's.

Australia generates more carbon pollution per head than any other developed country. But the government faces a furious backlash over the scheme, which a large proportion of the population opposes.

101 East travels to Australia to ask: What is the cost of pricing pollution?

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2011/08/2011825765067953.html

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(correcting my earlier post — above) Most of my contact in Europe are stressing the fact that water is becoming very scarce. Winter has not filled the dams. There are few water reserves left after a very dry summer/autumn as well. And the dry winds are mostly continental. Global warming is kicking in... The EXTRA  carbon dioxide that humans have been (are) pumping into the atmosphere is altering climatic patterns more and more...

Presently there are floods in Fiji as NEVER SEEN BEFORE... Fiji has seen many cyclones and fierce storms in the past, but so far nothing so devastating and violent... And apparently a cyclone is now forming to the west of the islands...

England had the warmest March since 1929...

 

more records thanks to global warming...

 

 

Summer's missing week has turned up in mid-autumn and, for much of the country, including Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, it's turning out to be the warmest April spell in decades, according to weatherzone.com.au. Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart and other coastal areas are being blessed by a string of pleasant, mostly sunny and calm days, which was a rarity for some during the summer.
Sydney managed only one week-long spell of 25 degrees during the past summer, at the end of February, which is one fewer than normal.
There are several reasons for the warm weather turning up now.
La Nina has ended and the monsoon that brought rain and extensive cloud to northern Australia during the past several months has moved on.This combination of events has allowed skies to become clear. Given that we are still surrounded by warmer-than-normal waters, the air mass over most of the continent has had no trouble reheating," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.
"For a few days now, temperatures have been reaching the high 30s over a large area of the country's interior, with help from almost-unbroken sunshine. The lack of cloud and strong cold fronts during the past week or two have allowed the heat to build up to near-record levels," Mr Dutschke said.Alice Springs has reached 38 degrees for the past three days, which is an April record.

 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/summers-missing-week-found-in-april-20120405-1wevi.html#ixzz1rAipojVc

 

pinpointing the reality of global warming...

Two weeks ago, publishing in the journal Nature Geoscience, scientists from several institutes estimated warming in the range of 1.4-3 degrees Celsius by 2050 (compared with 1961-1990 levels), a higher upper range than previously found using comprehensive, complex climate models.

Also two weeks ago, scientists from Britain's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) published updated temperature data including observations from more than 450 additional weather stations from the Arctic - made newly available by Russia and Canada.

They showed that 2005 and 2010 were the hottest years in a temperature record dating back to around 1850.

Previously CRU had said 1998 was the hottest year, leading some sceptics to claim "no global warming this century", to dismiss the urgency of the problem .

On the contrary, the basics of climate change are now understood and serious doubt is left only in the minds of those who cultivate it.

Climate science can now pin down the big uncertainties, about regional impacts, sea level rise and runaway effects, and help to put to work a response.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/sceptics-case-melts-more-20120406-1wg35.html#ixzz1rFsiUtGg

killing science...

The British scientific research body which discovered the hole in the ozone layer and whose work is now vital to understanding climate change is fighting for its life. Cuts of more than 25 per cent to the budget of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have been proposed, and threaten not only its continuing work but also have already caused one major casualty, a furious interdepartmental row in Whitehall and prompted the intervention of the Prime Minister.

MPs intend raising in the Commons concerns about what is considered to be a jewel in the crown of British science, and it is understood that Foreign Office officials intend to contest the funding cuts to the bitter end. All this is in the centenary year of the death of Scott of the Antarctic, and in the wake of the worldwide success of Sir David Attenborough's BBC1 Frozen Planet series.

At stake is one of the most respected groups of scientists in the world. It was three scientists at the British Antarctic Survey who discovered the "ozone hole", writing one of the most influential papers ever published in journal Nature, which went on to shape the way we think about climate change. More recently, BAS has undertaken major work to monitor global sea-level rises.

But all that is now in jeopardy, after the cost-cutting measures ordered by the National Environmental Research Council (NERC) which provides the main source of BAS funding. The NERC in turn receives the cash from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, which is under serious pressure to reduce the UK's national deficit. The Independent on Sunday understands NERC was seeking a £13m cut from an overall budget of £48m.

The BAS director, Professor Nicholas Owens, and NERC chief executive, Professor Duncan Wingham, are reported to have clashed sharply over the issue. The argument came to a climax in December when Professor Owens went over the head of NERC and made the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) aware of the proposed changes he felt were being forced through. FCO officials are so concerned at the proposals to scale down BAS's work it raised the issue at a National Security Council meeting in January, prompting the intervention of Prime Minister David Cameron. As part of its dual role, it also provides presence in the region for the FCO, where its science work informs government policy. However the FCO does not provide funding for BAS.

Mr Cameron pledged support for the work of BAS, and ordered the funding row be resolved, but since then the crisis has worsened after the alleged suspension of Professor Owens. Initially, Professor Owens, a highly respected scientist, was said to be on sick leave, but this description has now been changed to "special leave". After the NSC meeting, relations between Professor Owens and NERC deteriorated further. It is understood that negotiations between Professor Owens are NERC are still ongoing.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/exclusive-british-polar-research-in-crisis-7627014.html?printService=print

connecting the dots...

The fact that it's impossible to draw a straight line between climate change and the seemingly more turbulent weather doesn't mean we should act as if the two aren't linked. There's no doubt that warming raises at least the risk of extreme-weather events, something we're thinking about more in the early part of what is shaping up to be a brutally hot year in the U.S. But the fastest way to reduce the death and damage from extreme weather is through adaptation, whether that takes the form of better tornado warnings or micro-insurance policies that allows subsistence farmers in sub-Saharan Africa to bounce back from drought.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2112188,00.html#ixzz1sIZoIMKA

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The straight line "may not be" visible to the naked eye but the parallel increase in temperature and carbon dioxide is uncanny. The other increase — of more noticeable devastating events — where floods of the century happen every five or ten years is also a strong indication of "climate change". The relationship between CO2 and water vapour behaviour is measurable. Connecting the dots is a brave steps for any politician... but a necessary step to protect the future... Julia Gillard managed to take the first baby step, but the Mad Monk is promising us, gullible folks, to dismantle everything... On this subject Abbott has an idiot brain. 

We need to act on CO2 emissions now.

the "tradition" of climate...

"This is an unusually active depression for the time of year, as the Atlantic is traditionally at its quietest during mid-to-late spring".

The Met Office website stated: “A band of heavy rain will move north across southern parts of England and Wales during Tuesday night, followed by heavy and locally thundery downpours for Wednesday. The rain will be accompanied by strong and gusty southeasterly winds. The public should be aware that heavy rain may lead to localised surface water flooding and poor driving conditions.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/flood-warnings-issued-in-droughthit-areas-on-wettest-day-of-the-year-7678653.html

The continent is also battered by strong winds, heavy rain and crap weather, "unusual" for the season...