Sometimes when you order champagne, what you receive is kvass.

To wit, not long ago Yours Truly was called into Headquarters of Central Office to be given the riot act.

"Somerset! You've been gone weeks! Where're you hiding!?! Meanwise, all this mail of yours keeps piling up and polluting the News Bureau. If it's not too much trouble, reply to your adoring masses?”

Naturally, I implore The Boss, "Agreed! This is EXACTLY why I would appreciate your approval for that sweet little studio apartment on Malaya Morskaya where I can store all my Fan Mail…just sign here…”.

Yet the Slav is not so easy to dissuade…”What!?! No, no, no and again no…as in, we KNOW the reason you want a "sweet little apartment' in St. P paid by Pravda and it has nothing to do with males! Denied!”

So, I mournfully drag myself back to the "ol teak and begin sifting across my various lot of Lonelyhearts…

(NOTE: Some missives have been edited for vanity.)

The Government Shutdown — Broadly (AKA The History)

Lolly Letter #1 — "Somerset, given you are so clever and intelligent, can you explain the Shutdown?”

Guy Reply # 1 — Okay, there is plenty of hysteria coupled by scant facts these days. So, first of all, the world is not ending. This is unpleasant but hardly exclusive. A Funding Gap, during the 1980s and 1990s, was far more common than it is today and the government somehow muddled its way to the other side.

Indeed, since 1977 there have been 20 Funding Gaps in total. (We're in number 21 right now.) Most lasted a day or a week. So don't panic. Admittedly, some led to Shutdowns; including now, 11 in total.

Essential workers must labor, but don't get paid until later. Many Federal workers are furloughed.

The most recent prior Shutdown was under Don Cheeto back in 2018 and went on for 35 days. (Incidentally, don't get cute Diversocrats or Republitards, both Carter and Reagan had "gaps” nearly every year. This is not a partisan issue, but if you want to place blame, it goes to each side of the aisle.)

The Government Shutdown — Specifically (AKA This Time)

Lolly Letter #2 — "Somerset, since you're so suave and sophisticated, can you say me the causes of the Shutdown this time?”

Guy Reply #2 — The Shutdown which began on October 1, 2025, had its origin with the Big Beautiful Bill signed into law exclusively by Republicans on July 4, 2025. That legislation supported $5 Trillion in "reduced revenue” (AKA tax cuts) from 2025 into 2034, or, after two terms of a new Republican Prez.

To pay for this incredible largesse, the Republicans vastly reduced funding toward Medicaid as well as Affordable Health Care Act subsidies which have seen increased enrollment in recent years.

By most conservative estimates (likely undercounted) will be approximately 2 Million fewer Americans who receive Health Care with about 20 Million more Americans who lose SNAP or Food Assistance.

Duplicitous "work requirements for the able-bodied” were introduced with the implicit purpose of pushing eligible Americans off these Health Care registrations; as evidenced in states which have previously enacted such provisions to disastrous result — many qualified cut, several entitled deceased.

Thus, an "able-bodied” indigent who delivers food in-between caring for a disabled spouse…is out.

How this directly affects the current Shutdown is that Republicans need 60 votes in the Senate to pass their Budget, while having only 53 party members, one of whom, Rand Paul (R-KY) is an extreme fiscal conservative who invariably votes "Nay”…therefore meaning, Republicans need 7 Democratic votes.

Incidentally, the House is not an issue as Republicans have (for now) a majority of members.

Finally (*sigh*, I know!)…Democrats had no other opportunity to affect change in terms of repealing, or at least mitigating, the reductions to eligibility for Health Care until this time. Moreover, state premium charges for the coming year will begin mailing this month, often with triple price increases.

The Government Shutdown — Usually vs. Currently

Lolly Letter #3 — "Somerset, being debonair and worldly, can you show how prior Shutdowns diverge from the current Shutdown?”

Guy Reply #3 — Usually, a Shutdown is based on Party Philosophy. That is, a perfunctory genuflection, by either side, to satisfy devout members of their "base” supporters. Seldom are tangible results achieved. This being one reason, among many, that the vast majority of Funding Disputes last barely a single week.

Except…this ain't Usually, sweetheart.

Uniquely, this Shutdown, agree or disagree with its aims, is at its core based on Party Practicality. That is, visible results are sought given the circumstances. The Democratic perspective, from both supporters and politicos, has been Leadership acquiesced too much to Trump during the past year.

Health Care is the hill upon which they have chosen to fight.

The Government Shutdown — Philosophy & Practicality

Lolly Letter #4 — "Somerset, while I know you likely have many social engagements breathlessly waiting, can you pause just a brief moment to describe what each side wants in the Shutdown this month?”

Guy Reply #4 — Herein lies the rub…so to speak.

Republicans want a straight funding bill and negotiations in the future. Democrats can't wait.

Earlier this session Democrats supported a "clean bill” to fund government; which means strict financial legislation absent overt politics. Indeed, this has been done often in the past, again from both parties.

Aside from the apparent desire of Democratic Voters to have Democratic Politicians "make a statement” is the further incidental Trump is deceitful. Not a value judgment, but a realistic viewpoint.

During the past year, our Cheeto Administration has done a "Rescission” Bill which claws back funds previously approved by Congress; done mainly to the detriment of Democratic programs and ideals.

So, approve or disapprove, the Democrats now feel they must force the issue during a Funding Bill rather than other legislation in order that Trump is forestalled from clawing back any monies agreed.

Lastly (yes, yes, yes, yes, I KNOW)…is that a seldom observed reality of the increased Health Insurance premium notices is that even IF the Democrats somehow manage to have those eventually repealed…many Citizens, having seen the higher prices, will drop out of coverage and not return.

Think of it in these terms…You visit an Automotive Dealership and the Salesman tries to put you in a standard car for "only” $80,000…even if he later reduces the price to a reasonable $30,000 most buyers will not come back to him.

Right or wrong, that's human nature; which may kill affordable Health Care in the country.

The Government Shutdown — What Comes Next…Plausibly and Potentially

Lolly Letter #5 — "Somerest, I'm thinking of leaving my highly lucrative career as a successful lingerie model to come live outside your place in hopes we perchance meet, but I'm not quite sure whether this is the precise time to make such a change…what can we expect next during this Shutdown?”

Guy Reply #5 — There are far too many variables to accurately predict the coming weeks. Even so, there are several dates which, in succession and compounding, will make continued Shutdown unpalatable:

October 10 — The first Federal Worker Paydate following Shutdown. That's about 750,000 working folks.

October 14 — Citigroup Earnings Report (Before The Bell) — NOTE: This Author owns shares in the stock in some capacity, as he does most large banks, so judge accordingly. — This investment has risen over 60% since the April lows of the Trump Tariff Announcement, making it useful as a bell-weather of the entire Financial Industry. Thus, while stocks generally ignore Shutdowns, any serious miss could prove vital.

October 15 — The first Military Paydate following Shutdown. There are 2 Million active service personnel.

October 28 and 29 — Federal Reserve Meeting. Some Government data has been delayed already. More could be delayed this week. Whether that affects the overwhelmingly anticipated rate cut is unknown.

WILD CARD: circa Oct 19-Oct 26 — TSA (Transportation and Safety Administration) employees are deemed "essential workers yet NOT paid in a Shutdown. During the prior Shutdown, which began on December 22, 2018, it was approximately three weeks before TSA employees started a "sick out” (calling in "sick” to protest not being paid). Accordingly, on this timeframe, the current Shutdown began on October 1, 2025, and repeat of this "sick out” will statistically begin approximately the week of October 19 or of October 26, respectively, barring any unanticipated events such as national crisis.

EVEN WILDER: According to a UC Berkley review in 2023, voter registration of Federal Employees was around 50% Democratic and only 20% Republican, the remaining 30% Indpendents. As per the TSA itself, the average annual wage is between $40,000 and $60,000…making them the PRIME demographic that will see double or tripling of ACA Health Premiums…which may lead to more support for Shutdown.

Basically, the conclusion is impossible to predict. It could realistically end by this week or by next month.

RSVP…

While it is very common for those one helps, in re Noblesse Oblige, to immediately lose your name after they have recovered their footing, making it more Noblesse NO-blige as prudent course of action, there is the deliciously infrequent occurrence that you find a real live "keeper” prance across your path.

Therefore, evidence the joy when Your Humble Correspondent received the following RSVP:

"Ah, Mr. Somerset, thank you ever-so-much for taking care to correspond with me…and whenever you find yourself in Petro, by all means some to my place on Malaya so we can sit for tea underneath a rare etching by Edward Hopper of Central Park at dark…and, assuming I am not being overly bold, I shall wear the French Maid uniform I just bought for our rendezvous.”

Somerset Guide to Epistolary Etiquette

Lesson #1 — Obey Your Editor.

Lesson #2 — Promptly Reply To Mail.

Lesson #3 — A lovely Bouffant tops an ugly Bureaucracy any day of the Week!

Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America

https://english.pravda.ru/opinion/164369-american-government-shutdown/