Membership of the Chinese Communist Party has just exceeded 100 million. It has long been the largest political party in world history.

When Prime Minister Albanese meets President Xi Jinping, he is not only meeting the head of the second largest economy in the world in nominal dollars, and by far the largest in purchasing power parity terms, but also the head of the biggest political party the world has ever seen. This matters.

Geoff Raby

The Chinese system is organised as a diarchy, with each level of government represented by a state official and, at a higher level, by a communist party official. Xi is both President and General Secretary of the Party.

Xi will come to the meeting with a raft of matters he wants to discuss: promoting good relations between the countries, expanding economic co-operation, especially in light of the uncertainty and trade protection created by the Trump administration, an interest in deepening people-to-people contacts, especially student and scientific exchanges and cultural activities. Xi may also raise what the Chinese side views as Australia’s provocative actions in the South China Sea and Straits of Taiwan, and its zero-sum competition in the Pacific.

As party leader, Xi will, however, be more concerned with how China is perceived by the region and the wider world. His principal objective is to make the world safe for the Communist Party to continue to rule. He will seek reassurances on the legitimacy of the party’s rule, including acknowledgement of recognition of Beijing’s claims over Taiwan (this, of course, does not mean endorsement, although Xi would love to hear that).

Xi will also have many difficult international issues on his mind – stability in the Middle East, the capriciousness and unpredictability of Trump, the extent of Western solidarity and resilience of support for Ukraine, failing commitments to the Paris accords on climate change, the threat of nuclear proliferation in East Asia, and more. On all of these, Xi will genuinely want to hear Australia’s positions and determine if Australia has something to contribute to the international debate.

He will press the prime minister to adopt — from his perspective — a more accommodating foreign investment regime for China, which he views as discriminatory. He will also seek the prime minister’s support for China’s accession to the CPTPP.

Xi will try to enlist the prime minister to his vision of a world order based on “a community of common destiny”. Essentially, this means “non-interference”, no lecturing on different values, and pursuit of economic development.

Xi is clearly the most powerful individual in China, but recent efforts by some to divine the direction of China’s policies by seeking a deeper understanding of Xi’s thinking are a fool’s errand.

Certainly, the personality of any leader in any political system will colour the tone and expression of policies. But how much can a reading of his speeches, especially when they have gone through the wringer of the party’s propaganda machine, or psycho-social analysis of his relationship with his father, really tell us about policies that emerge?

China’s adoption of a “zero-COVID” policy in late 2021 was clearly Xi’s, but it was not based on Marxist precepts or respect for his late father, but on hubris: China had done much better than the West in managing COVID-19, but in 2022 with the Omicron variant the same policies were a disaster.

When popular demonstrations broke out in Shanghai, the policy was scrapped within 24 hours with massive loss of face for Xi: hardly an act of an all-powerful autocrat. Simply, the party had felt threatened.

Policy-making in China is a contested process with a multitude of interests having to be mediated. China is unique, not because it has a strong leader, but because the internal policy making process remains so opaque. Those of us outside the system are left guessing.

Unlike in Putin’s Russia, however, where no one knows what happens when Putin goes, in China things will most likely look much the same after Xi. The party is the most powerful institution in the land, dedicated to its own survival. Not only is it growing in numbers, it is the main source of political stability and institutional continuity.

Meanwhile, when the prime minister meets the head of the world’s biggest political machine, it is more than anything else an opportunity for exercising statesmanship in Australia’s national interest.

Albanese’s instincts towards China have been sound: he nearly always reminds Australians that much of their prosperity depends on the trading relationship with China. He helpfully speaks about approaching the relationship “respectfully” and acts accordingly. When three PLA navy ships turned up in the vastness of the Tasman Sea, he noted correctly that Australia does the same in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits.

A sound basis exists to take the relationship further in Australia’s interests. The prime minister can now move beyond the exhausted departmental talking points of “stabilisation” following the self-indulgent recklessness of the Morrison Government. His actions and those of the foreign minister have already “normalised” the relationship.

The triumvirate formulation of “co-operate where we can, disagree where we must, and pursue our national interests” is also hackneyed. Moreover, James Curran, in these pages, has shown it was lifted from the Biden administration. The lack of original Australian intellectual input into this most important relationship is breath taking.

Xi sees the world through huge brush strokes of history as viewed through his understanding of Chinese historical experience and his sense of China as a powerful civilisational society where culture is an essential element in national cohesion.

Throughout the sweep of Chinese history, a continuous conversation, indeed struggle, has been engaged between proponents of greater openness and engagement with the outside world and those of inwardness and isolation. Statesmanship by the prime minister on this visit should be to support within the party, through his conversations with Xi, the proponents of greater openness and engagement. There’s much to work with.

Republished from AFR, 8 July 2025

https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/07/albaneses-visit-to-china-is-a-moment-for-statesmanship/

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         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.