On Friday 30 September, on the eve of two football finals, the start of school holidays and a long weekend that would concentrate the attention of a large portion of the Australian population, an event took place relevant to the standard of living of all Australians.

The Treasurer, Scott Morrison, and the Finance Minister, Mathias Cormann, revealed on the Treasury website the final budget figures for 2015-16.

And in a close game they just made it before the final siren because the Charter of Budget Honesty requires the release of each budget outcome be released by 30 September each year.

Unlike the football codes who would be hungry for all the media coverage they could get, Morrison and Cormann didn’t require a press conference or media release. They made sure they would get little attention. The opposite of what one would expect from a major economic announcement.

In the past when talking about budget repair, a return to surplus, paying off the debt and dealing with a budget emergency they never shied away from publicity. After all it was those tasty bits of scare mongering that saw the Coalition elected in 2013 and16.

Why all the secrecy, you might ask. Haven’t they been kicking a few economic goals? Well not when you look at the outcomes.

The 2015-16 budget deficit was $39.6bn or 2.4% of gross domestic product.

In May 2014 when Joe Hockey delivered his budget the forecast deficit for 15/16 was $17.1bn. But it blew out. Stephen Koukoulas reports that:

“Much of the blowout was due to decisions of the Coalition government. Foregoing revenue from the carbon price, gifting $8.8bn to the RBA and ramping up spending on border protection without any offsets were vital”.

Now that’s a blowout that would make a professional ‘balloon blower upper’ proud.

And talk about spending like a drunken sailor. After hearing Scott Morrison say they didn’t have a revenue problem but one of spending too much. Spending has increased astronomically:

“In 2012-13, the last full year of the previous Labor government, the ratio of government spending to GDP was 24.1%. In 2014-15, this had risen to 25.6% and, in 2015-16, it rose to 25.7% of GDP. The 1.6% of GDP blowout in spending between 2012-13 and 2015-16 is about $26bn and accounts for more than the blowout in the deficit from the time of the 2014 budget”.

No wonder Morrison and Cormann didn’t want a press conference and preferred to hide in the top row of the MCG members stand.

At June 2016 net government debt rose to $296.4 billion which was up from $153 billion when the Coalition gained power on the basis that they were the better economic managers.

Hang on, I’m not finished yet. As a percentage of GDP, net government debt has risen from 10% to 18%, which is not far from the all-time high of post second world war.

At year’s end, there will be no football finals to give cover, although Carols by Candlelight might be attractive. They have to release MYEFO and net government debt will be screaming past the 60 year high.

And not since we were funding the Vietnam War in 1971/72 has net debt been near $420.4bn which is 25% of GDP in June 2016. The Credit Rating agencies will be looking down under with clear eyes.

For this mob to say they are superior to Labor in terms of economic management is akin to saying John Lord was a better player than Gary Ablett Snr. The deficit blowout is so bad they have had to borrow more to cover the difference.

Now if Labor were in power the Murdoch press would be after them with all the power that tabloid propaganda could muster.

What the Government needs is a miracle that provides a rapid growth spurt accompanied by massive revenue gains that might keep the Credit Rating agencies from the door, but I doubt it. Further increases in Government debt is the likely outcome.

Morrison did do some media appearances on the Friday mentioned but he was talking about sharks of the Cronulla kind. I was thinking about sharks of another kind.

An observation

“Luck is when enthusiasm meets opportunity”.

The Essential Poll again this week had Labor leading the Coalition 51/49. However there were some interesting results from their weekly survey.

Question. The Liberal/National Government has proposed holding a plebiscite on same-sex marriage. The Labor Party, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team are opposed to holding a plebiscite and want a vote in Parliament. Which of the following options would you favour to resolve this issue?

To resolve the issue of same-sex marriage, 53% think the Liberal National Government should agree to a vote in Parliament and 24% think Labor and the other parties should agree to a plebiscite.

Those most likely to think the Government should agree to a vote in Parliament were Greens voters (71%) and those who would vote in favour of same-sex marriage in a plebiscite (66%). 56% of Liberal National voters think their party should agree to a vote in Parliament.

Question. The Federal Government plans to hold a national vote on same-sex marriage in February next year. If the question was “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?” how would you vote?

58% would vote “yes” in a plebiscite on same-sex marriage and 28% would vote “no”. 14% did not know how they would vote.

This represents little change since this question was asked in August.

Those most likely to vote “yes” were Greens voters (89%), Labor voters (71%) and those aged 18-24 (71%).

48% of those aged 65+ would vote “no”.

Question. Do you agree or disagree that access to the Internet is becoming an essential service – like access to water and electricity?

88% agree that access to the internet is becoming an essential service. Only 7% disagreed.

For other questions go here.

Documents released under freedom of information show that Malcolm and Lucy spent $198,500 for functions during his first six months as prime minister.

If anything the Bank CEO interviews are doing nothing more than confirming the need for a Royal Commission. A Poll taken by the think tank The Australian Institute found 68 per cent of respondents support the greater scrutiny of a royal commission. It invites the question as to why former Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane has been recruited by the Commonwealth Bank as an adviser. Is it to advise them of the best way to avoid a Royal Commission?

Just thought I would fill you in. This from the Guardian:

“The global temperature has increased to a level not seen for 115,000 years, requiring daunting technological advances that will cost the coming generations hundreds of trillions of dollars”.

According to the scientist widely credited with bringing climate change to the public’s attention.

Depressed? Yeah, so am I but I only have a few years left.

Oh, and did you know that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided that Canada should have a Carbon Tax?

Well we did set a wonderful example for a while.

My thought for the day

“A Death Certificate might show proof of death but the legacy you leave behind will demonstrate how you lived”.

Day to Day Politics: Economics, Coalition style