from PoliticOz ….

Today's Newspoll is striking, for the fact that it represents the only positive Tony Abbott's leadership has enjoyed since he knighted Prince Philip on January 26. Its news isn't exactly good – the value of a single poll result is negligible, and at 47-53 the government would still lose an election quite comfortably. But 47-53 is a good deal better than the figures for the past month, and it may buy him further time in the AFP College, Abbott's Canberra residence while the Lodge is renovated.

Abbott doesn't deserve a poll bounce. His two major speeches this month – to the Press Club and on national security – have been equal parts piss, wind and dog-whistling. (In the SMH, Peter Hartcher asks why Abbott is promoting fear of immigrants and division among Australians when the best security advice suggests that a national leader should be emphasising calm and unity. Why, Waleed Aly asked Joe Hockey yesterday, did Abbott call for Muslim leaders to denounce terrorism when they already are?) Abbott has shown no evidence that he's changing his uncollaborative administrative style, his personnel or his political direction since he came within 11 votes of losing his party's leadership 17 months after winning it government, and now seven ministers who voted for him in that poll have put him on formal notice.

The leaks are now springing so regularly that it's difficult to see how Abbott's ship will sail much longer, barnacles or not. The latest leak serves to undermine Abbott on national security strategy, and an email sent Sunday night by the Liberal Party's treasurer demanding an end to the "conflict of interest" caused by Peta Credlin's marriage to Brian Loughnane, the party's director, indicates what Fairfax is describing as a split in Abbott's power base inside the Liberal Party. Abbott has resolutely shielded Credlin from increasing backbench calls for her removal, and continues to do so. Meanwhile John Howard, these days a kind of spiritual grandfather within the Liberal Party, has effectively annointed Malcolm Turnbull as Abbott's successor.