What's happening?

The most populous nation in the Arab world is supposed to be heading to the polls to elect a new parliament, almost a year after a mass uprising toppled the 30-year dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. If the vote does take place and is free and fair - and there are many doubts on both those fronts - Egypt's election will be one of the biggest exercises in democracy on the planet. Why now?

Democratic elections were one of the first things Egypt's army generals promised when they took power after the downfall of Mubarak, though they have missed their original six-month deadline for holding the vote. The post-Mubarak ''transition'' period has proved to be a bitter-sweet experience for Egypt's revolutionaries; although Mubarak and several of his regime acolytes have gone on trial and the political landscape has been liberalised, the rule of the junta - known officially as the Supreme Council of Armed Forces - has in some ways been even more repressive than the government that preceded it.

That repression has been illuminated once again in the past few days, and with it has come confirmation that the revolution very much goes on. Across Egypt, protesters are now targeting the junta as the key obstacle to genuine reform, and the violence and chaos that has ensued is endangering the poll altogether. The junta's critics say the vote will mean nothing if it is not accompanied by the withdrawal of the ruling generals from power. There is talk of a new government of ''national salvation'' being formed to quell the crisis, and if that happens no one yet knows what its impact will be on the parliamentary ballot. Some liberal and leftist parties have already suspended campaigning.

Against that volatile backdrop, if the vote does go ahead both the political elite and grassroots activists will be hoping that the election of a new parliament will help settle things in their favour. The junta hopes the poll will help subdue dissent and offer some stability, while critics of military rule want the new parliament to challenge the junta's legitimacy and re-energise the movement for change. How long will this parliament last?

Not very long. It's likely to be one of the shortest parliaments in Egyptian history. But it will also be one of the most important, as its primary task is to form a special constitutional assembly that will draw up a new constitution next year and thus shape Egypt's political future for many years, maybe even decades, to come. Once that new constitution is approved in a national referendum, new elections will be held in 2013 for the presidency and, eventually, a fresh parliament. In the meantime, the junta will remain in executive power, a situation that deeply worries many observers who fear the army is trying to permanently entrench its control over political life. How does it work?

Egypt is split into 27 governorates, and the poll for its lower house of parliament - ''the people's parliament'' - will be staggered across three dates with nine governorates voting in each round. The first round is on Monday and includes the major urban centres of Cairo and Alexandria. The second is on December 14 and will feature Giza (the area of Cairo on the west bank of the Nile), Suez and the important upper Egyptian cities of Aswan and Sawhaj. The final round will be on January 3 and includes the whole of the Sinai Peninsula as well as Egypt's western desert and parts of the Nile Delta.

Seven days after each round there will be a run-off election for constituencies where no individual candidate achieved 50 per cent of the vote, and the final results will be announced by January 13. After that the voting merry-go-round begins again for the upper house, which has a consultative role. By the time it's over, the whole process will have taken four months. Why is it such a drawn-out affair?

Ostensibly, it's to help ensure that the elections are carried out fairly. Having rejected the offer of international election observers, the Egyptian government is relying on its own judges and civil society monitors to keep an eye on polling stations and ballot boxes and ensure no violations take place. There are a limited number of such trained individuals and it would be impossible for them to cover the whole country in a single day, hence the convoluted timetable.

But critics say these elections have been designed to be as unfathomable as possible, confusing potential voters and effectively disenfranchising them from the democratic process. Following fierce political wrangling over the exact nature of the poll, a hybrid system has been put in place with overlapping electoral districts of different sizes; each citizen will actually be voting for three representatives in two constituencies - one on a party list, and then two more from a selection of individual candidates. Add to that a Nasser-era law stipulating that half the 508-strong parliament must consist of workers and farmers (a regulation widely abused in practice), and you are left with a fiendishly complex set of rules that is adding a great deal of uncertainty to an already volatile situation. How many people have the vote, and is it the country's first free poll?

There are about 45 million eligible voters in Egypt, plus several million more abroad who have won an 11th-hour victory in their battle to be allowed to cast a ballot as well (which they will do via their local Egyptian embassy). This is not actually the first election held in post-Mubarak Egypt; there was a national referendum on a series of constitutional amendments in March that laid the groundwork for the current vote to take place. About 19 million Egyptians participated, with the overwhelming majority approving the amendments, but a much higher turnout is predicted for this time round. Who are the main players?

Since the fall of Mubarak and the end of half a century of what was effectively one-party rule, numerous new political forces have exploded onto the scene. Some are large and well established, others command no more than a handful of supporters and they have fallen in and out of various coalitions and alliances throughout the year.

However, the key battle appears to be between the once outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, which has created its own Freedom and Justice Party, and its secular rivals, the biggest of which is the Free Egyptians Party, which was founded by Coptic telecoms billionaire Naguib Sawiris. Both parties have joined with other groups to form rival coalitions: the Brotherhood's is called the Democratic Alliance and includes a number of more liberal forces in an effort not to scare off more secular voters, while the Free Egyptians Party is heading up the Egyptian bloc, which is largely secular and includes some left-leaning outfits.

There are two other coalitions that could have an impact on results. One is the Islamist Alliance, which consists of conservative Salafi parties that have a stricter interpretation of Islamic law and will be hoping to pick up support from those left disillusioned by the Brotherhood's apparent drift towards the political centre. The other is the Revolution Continues Alliance, which is leftist and includes many of the youth groups that helped lead the anti-Mubarak uprising in January, as well as the Brotherhood's youth wing, which has broken away from its parent organisation.

The alliance will be hoping to capitalise on a strong desire for socio-economic justice following the corruption of the Mubarak years, but its members lack the funding and organisational muscle of their liberal and Islamist competition.

Finally, there are a series of non-aligned parties, including al-Adl, which describes itself as a ''non-ideological'' movement trying to strike a ''third way'' between the Islamists and liberals, and al-Wafd, one of the country's oldest political parties but a movement somewhat tarnished by its participation in the Mubarak regime's sham elections of the past. Can Mubarak-era stooges and cronies run?

The answer to this is currently unclear. In mid-November, Egypt's Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision that could have barred the felool (meaning ''remnants'') of Mubarak's now-disbanded ruling NDP party from standing for office, ending weeks of debate over the issue and raising the prospect of significant figures from the old regime playing a major role in the construction of a new Egypt.

Several Mubarak-era acolytes have formed right-wing political parties, including former NDP secretary-general Hossam Badrawi, and their candidates are predicted to do especially well in areas where local powerbrokers have long been affiliated to the NDP and will not want to cede political control easily.

But in an effort to appease protesters in the midst of the recent violence, the junta made a last-ditch promise to enact a ''treachery law'' that would trump the decisions of the courts and stop NDP members from running after all. The announcement was met with widespread scepticism, as the authorities have not said how they will implement the plan, which would presumably require the reprinting of millions of ballot papers. What is everybody hoping for?

The Brotherhood will be deemed to have fallen well short of expectations if it does not emerge as the largest party, though it's doubtful it will get a majority - most analysts predict a 20-30 per cent share of the seats. With no real precedent to turn to and with some polls indicating that half of voters are still undecided, it is impossible to guess at the final tallies, though it seems likely that the Islamist Alliance will put up a reasonably strong showing, as will the reformed NDP parties in certain areas.

That leaves a pretty narrow space in which the liberals and leftists can duke it out, though many say that after decades of authoritarianism they are in it for the long game. This election itself may not offer much in the way of seats, but it is the first step on a long road of building up national recognition and competing with the well-established organisational might of the Brotherhood and the former NDP. What does it all mean for Egypt's revolution?

Amr Hamzawy, a liberal parliamentary candidate and founder of a new party, said recently that in many ways it was not the final results that matter but rather if the turnout was above 50 per cent and the elections were genuinely free and fair, then the whole of Egypt can consider itself victorious.

Certainly after decades of being told by their autocratic leaders (and the Mubarak regime's allies abroad) that they were not ready for democracy and chaos would ensue if they were offered it, ordinary Egyptians know that in many ways the symbolism of this poll matters more than its result.

If all goes well, the spectacle of the Middle East's cultural pole star overthrowing a repressive government and queueing up to vote in a fairer alternative is one that will resonate throughout the Arab world and beyond, spooking autocrats and giving heart to pro-change movements everywhere.

But within that romanticism lurks a danger that Egypt's continuing injustices and struggle for freedom will be overlooked, a state of affairs the current junta - which under the current ''transition'' timetable will remain in power regardless of the result, at least for another year - will be happy with.

The human rights abuses and brutal crackdowns against dissidents that have characterised the junta's short but controversial reign underline the fact that although Mubarak is gone, the bulk of his regime remains. Those battling to resist it know that the elections are just another step in that fight, a fight that will continue long after the new parliament opens for business.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/world/world/general/free-and-fair/2368897.aspx?storypage=0